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4/8 live UI AKs on flop 4/8 live UI AKs on flop

03-14-2011 , 05:05 PM
I jumped on this 4/8 game (1/2 kill) because I saw one of my favorite LAGs sit down. He is the type of player that will change the entire table dynamic; he raises ATC, straddles, blind raises if it's a kill pot, will 3 bet a raise with trash, caps with trash if given the opportunity. The rest of the table is composed of 7 other loose/passive players who adjust to the LAG by accepting that if they want to play their weaker hands they have to call 5 bets preflop. There is 1 other TAG at the table who I know incredibly well- he plays a textbook SSHE game especially in multiway pots. TAG player has 2nd nut position on LAG and will take every reasonable opportunity to isolate LAG.

Preflop: Hero is in SB with AK
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, UTG+2 limps, MP (LAG) raises, LoJ folds, HiJ (TAG) 3 bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB Hero 4 bets, BB calls, all limpers call, MP (LAG) caps, all players call

Flop: (35SB) T83 (7 players)

Hero checks, checks to MP, MP (LAG) bets, HiJ (TAG) raises, Hero?

The point is to build big pots with our equity edges, but at which point do we become tied to the pot and when do we let it go?

Hero is getting 18.5 to 1 immediate odds holding a backdoor nut flush draw and 2 overs. TAG villain's range likely to include ATs, TT-AA, possibly 88. I'm excluding other Ax hands because he wouldn't raise LAG's c-bet with air.

How do I value my potential outs in this pot when it's so big and reverse domination is a distinct possibility in the massive field?

The likely action behind is that the weaker limpers will call, obviously getting pretty amazing odds to peel. The LAG is likely to 3 bet with any pair or draw, but I have seen him slowdown when he completely misses and is getting played back at by a TAG. If the LAG does 3 bet, the TAG will surely 4 bet a set, AA or KK, he may slowdown with weaker holdings (AT, JJ & QQ) waiting for a "safe" turn to try to reduce the odds he is offering the field and protect his holding.

Fold or call this flop?

If you're calling, do you ever 3 bet to cut the field of limpers' odds to 40 to 3 (13.3 to 1)? That seems pretty ineffective on getting hands like KT, K8, AT, A8 to fold, unless the limpers feel like the flop will also be capped and just get out of the way. Would a 3 bet alert the TAG that we may be holding AA or KK if he is holding AT or QQ-JJ? If so, would we fold to a 4 or 5 bet back from the TAG?
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote
03-14-2011 , 05:21 PM
If the LAG and TAG will go to war on the flop, I fold (which it sounds like this will be the case.)

If you 100% knew that it is never getting capped behind you, you can peel with your backdoors and ~2 overcard outs. I think its super thin either way and given the chance that more bets go in from either the two actors who have bet/raised or the 4 other people yet to act, I think it's a fold.
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote
03-14-2011 , 06:55 PM
I cannot yet find a fold in this 40 (!!) sb pot and I would cold call. OP said the flop bettor will just call sometimes, and even when he 3bs the TAG raiser will just call sometimes. paying 2 sb at 20+ to 1 is a very easy call; paying 3 sb at 15+ to 1 is regular easy. even if it's 4 or 5 bet we are getting so much padding from the weak field. we have 2 nut backdoor draws. if the turn bricks we can often fold but if we pick up either draw we will virtually always have positive equity to continue.
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote
03-16-2011 , 04:10 PM
No reason to fold and no reason to raise in this monstrous pot, you have 6 outs, (dirty as they may be) to top pair and redraws to boot. With all the extra fish in the pond it is worth a peel with a premium hand here. If the action gets capped then you can reevaluate on the turn and consider dropping if you don't pick up one of your backdoor draws. Also unless it's 2BB to me on the turn i'm peeling there as well.
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote
03-16-2011 , 04:21 PM
That is such a dry board, your overs really may be live. If the board was something like Qd9dx, then your outs would be dirtier. I'd call.
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote
03-16-2011 , 05:49 PM
Maybe crazy, but I like leading the flop given relative positions. Face the TAG with (likely) 2 bets on flop, he might have been trying to iso the LAG anyway. If he then 3-bets you can reconsider, if he calls you can close action with a call. If he folds then you can re-rai

As played I probably have to call since pot is huge and our outs are still likely good.
4/8 live UI AKs on flop Quote

      
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