4/8 live, typical loose passive table

For some unknown reason everyone folds to the button (this never happens with this cast of characters). Older lady on the Button raises. She doesn't seem aware enough to be able to open up her range much here (if at all), so she probably has a hand (she's been raising JJ+ and big Aces). Fish calls in the SB, I 3bet KK in the BB, Button and Fish calls. Button plays pretty straightforwardly, nothing fancy.

Flop is Axx rainbow. Fish checks, I bet, Button raises, Fish folds...

Can I really bet/fold a flop after 3betting preflop? Or do I have to call down here on the off-chance Button is trickier than I thought?

ETA: Since this is MUBSyland, there is a somewhat decent chance that if I call the flop bet that she checks behind on the turn for fear of a bigger ace, getting me to the river for just one more SB.

Gshe'snottrickierthanIthought,weknowthat,right?G

FWIW, my default would be to call the raise and c/f the turn. It's not like you're setting a whole small bet on fire by calling because you often have two outs and are getting around 12:1. Maybe that's stupid though.

That's my default play in this spot too; I'm just wondering if that's good considering 12:1 is nowhere near the 22:1 we need. However, if she checks behind on the turn enough fearing a bigger A maybe this ain't as horrible as I first thought...

Exactly, you don't need her to do something dumb with AJ (check turn to give you good odds to spike with 2 shots) or QQ (free showdown flop raise) very often getting that price. And I'm pretty sure that this villain is never barreling a worse hand than yours. I sometimes feel like I'm justifying this play against this kind of villain by over-valuing the image issues of what you mentioned, 3-betting preflop and b/f'ing the flop, but that's my rationale anyway.

Don't old ladies always have an ace here?

Yup, and if they don't, they have two.

She's only got one here 'cause she didn't 4-bet pf. Nontheless, I call the flop and c/f turn UI.

Even bad players will take shots at you if you b/f the flop and they're paying attention. (Which, admittedly,may be giving them too much credit.)

Ooops, misread the action. That'll teach me.

Solid and true

Is an old lady really capable of a bluff?

She's not bluffing. It'll be the other two idiots that see OP b/f the flop when an ace hits. They'll think that'll work for them, too.

This seems like a metagame benefit and not a bad thing. To the extent that you're capable of identifying and taking different lines to exploit different types of opponents I wouldn't worry too much about this. Just be cognizant of your table image.

any other broadway card on the flop?

Nope (lets say A83 or something like that); very unlikely she's hit a set (or a pair other than the A) and we don't have a backdoor straight draw.

You're getting 12:1 on a ~20:1 shot to hit your gin card (maybe only one left if she has AK and you might hit your ******* card (thanks Kit) if you spike a K and she has AA) so I just fold this and don't really think twice about it.

I think we're giving out opponents too much credit for "taking shots" at us if we bet fold the flop shorthanded against passive players every once in a while, but that's just me.

BTW I'm not advocating bet/folding a lot of flops after raising/3-betting PF. Just this one given the pot size and other circumstances.

I like the call fold ui action suggested often already. You might be able to encourage a check from her if you begin cutting enough chips for a raise as you are checking. A free card here makes the call very correct and the call probably protects the times she is looking for a freebe with KK, QQ or JJ.