Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Your math seems wrong since you're considering 4 opponents.
On the flop, we have to hope the case ten is not among their 14 collective cards after having seen 5 cards. So 14/47 chance the ten is among their cards = 29.8%. This assumes they are playing random cards. If you discount a lot of small card combos, this percentage should go up.
The bigger idea is that the times you are good, you gain multiple bets from opponents; the times you are bad, it only costs you 1 bet.
yeah that's more what I was thinking. my back of the envelope calculations were something like 12/48 cards saw the flop (I think it was 6 opponents not 7), so that's 25%, a little fudge factor for tens being "usually played" (how big this fudge factor should be depends on how loose these guys are), so I arrived at like 30%. Then I feel the fact that three people called the flop actually raises the chances of it.
lawdude I suspect your equity number being so high may come from assuming there are too many drawing dead pocket pairs out there (both by not having enough **** boxes in ranges and by not discounting the fact that 77 to 99 probably would have raised on the preflop), but can also see an argument that 98s is not folding this flop. Even with all this nonsense if you're WAY off which I don't think you are there appears to be no chance we have less than 60% equity 4 ways, can still expect tons of worse hands to call, and would actually really like to fold a naked ace (which has potentially four outs) to fold.
So I stick with my original statement you absolutely must bet.