Here are my thoughts:

1) we are not getting c raised 50% of the time here. 5 to 10% IMO. maybe more, and again, this depends on our read on the EP guy.

2) The turn check EV is optimistic - if we hit the straight, then perhaps we get up to 4 calls. If we hit the flush, no way. one to two calls at the most. When I'm playing and I bet a frush board, all fold to me (but then I typically have the TAGest image at the table, not hard to do).

3) And that gets to my central point - betting the turn disguises your flush draw. Mid pairs that have called on the turn are now feeling much more committed to calling a river bet. So:

Betting the turn gets you more bets on the river when you hit. Which is the central theme I've been presenting. I find this play true for up to 9/18 in loose and PASSIVE games.


AB

I try and put myself in OP's place and imagine myself playing this hand out.

"I 3 bet the flop with my great drawing hand. It is likely to be checked to me on the turn. I can take the free card but I'm going to bet here if it is checked to me. I am not likely to get check raised but if I do it is not that big a deal cause I still have a great drawing hand."

In the heat of the action I would probably bet the turn here, having 3 bet the flop. But I am pretty aggressive with my draws.

I am not saying I am not against a free card but in the heat of the battle I think that I would have prolly bet here on the turn. Betting is certainly not spewage

JQKA2

Aces go both ways right?

Whether the turn bet is slightly EV -,+ or neutral I'm firing the turn and bluffing at the river UI if checked around (assuming i'm gonna be at that table for a while). If I get c/r'd on the river I'm gonna smile and ask the raiser if he can beat 10 high while I muck. If I get called by some donkey with A2o I'm gonna proudly announce my 10 high and smile as I tell him he missed some bets, he had me the whole way.

Right now the rest of the table is fearing our "monster" and we'll need our bluff to work once out of approx 13-16 times to breakeven? We know we're betting on the come but what are they seeing? A guy who doesn't play many pots and bets aggressively when he makes a hand and usually shows down the goods. Granted.. this is a no fold em hold em table but I've seen stranger things happen.

I guess the question to me is - asssuming I do get "caught" with my hand in the cookie jar. How do you calculate the EV generated by this hand when you have people calling you down even lighter then usual for the next few hours when you really do have the nuts? I'm guessing the 2BB spent here will easily be repaid on our next winning pot with more behind.

People at low limits may not pay attention to your betting patterns or realize that you jamming the flop with 15 outs was actually the right play - but they will remember that you went agro on the flop and in their minds "bluffed" the whole way to the river. God forbid you make them fold a winner, you may have a customer for life.

Wowowow - I guess I missed that chapter.

AB

The % was a worst case scenario. I'm sure your right that it's less, but I'm not sure how you calculate what an LP w/ Aces up will do in this spot. I figured I use the "they have the A, they c/r" line to see what happens to our EV.

This may be so, but getting 12:1 or more, I'm guessing it will be hard for anyone with any pair or better to fold.


If I have a mid pair and a 6,7,T,J,Q,club or spade show up on the river, I'm not sure I would call a river bet. Plus as the agressor, what would I expect you to have if you didn't have a flush on the river except trip Aces. And if you do just get called on the turn, how sure are you that your flush is any good anyways. Like James. said, if you get c/r and anyone else calls, you're probably not the best flush out there.

AB[/QUOTE]

I know I would have bet in the heat of the moment. Even after a couple days discussion, there's still varying opinions about the best play. I will def. agree that a bet is not spew.

Finally, I agree with Pokernub about the metagame aspects of betting this out, even UI. And if you're gonna bluff, it might as well be in a 15BB pot!

Great thread guys.

Even harder to fold if they called the turn and are now getting 16:1 (or more) on the river.

AB

I meant that before checking out this thread, I have always bet an OPSD+FD from LP in a multiway pot when checked to. If I'm bet into from EP and there are 2 callers, I would probably raise.

I am a tight player and often my bets get far too much respect. The only way to get villains to call me down looser is to fire away when I hold a hand like this. If you don't agree that the EV is actually positive, then fine let's not discuss this any more. But I think we can agree on one thing: since it's garnered this much discussion, it must be close one way or the other. The fact that it's close means I should be betting just to loosen my image up and get called down lighter in the future.

Plus as AB mentioned there's nothing more frustrating that hitting the flush on the river and getting called in only one spot. Let's tie them to the pot on the turn and we get probably 2 more BB on the river from villains wanting to keep us honest. Does 2 BB sound reasonable? If it does, we should factor this into the implied odds we get from betting the turn.

As far as the results go I took down the pot and didn't see the lone caller's hand.

one more thing worth mentioning is that against loose passive opponents, we are going to use the free card play on the flop almost at will.

But even these fish will eventually pick up on our strategy if we always check the turn behind.

That's why I think that in these close situations it makes sense to bet, since betting protects the ability to keep using the free card play against these villains. Let's save the checks for the times that we are more in need of them, ie. gutshots etc.