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03-03-2012 , 03:32 PM

San Hoser

journeyman

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 251

15/30 Garden City

Villain is in his 50s and neutral/neutral on the looseness/aggression scale. Probably on AJ+ or TT+.
Hero has an aggressive not so tight image.

Hero in MP with 77

Folds to hero who raises, villain 3! in CO, BTN calls, hero calls.

Flop: 834 RB(10 sb)

Hero checks, villain bets, 1 fold, hero calls.

Turn: 5 ( 6 bb)

Hero checks, villain bets, hero calls

River: T ( 8 bb)

Hero checks.

Any issues with calling all three streets post? I have 50% on flop and turn vs original PF range. Is a river bet always polarized an overpair?

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03-03-2012 , 04:39 PM

...one...

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 435

how likely is vil to be betting missed Ax flush draw?
will he fire Ax on all three?
sorry just not clear whats nuetral?

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03-03-2012 , 05:18 PM

San Hoser

journeyman

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 251

Quote:

Originally Posted by ...one...

how likely is vil to be betting missed Ax flush draw?
will he fire Ax on all three?
sorry just not clear whats nuetral?

Neutral is in between tight and loose.

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03-03-2012 , 05:23 PM

crueleye

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 959

I think I bet this flop. If his range is ajj+ and 10/10+ then we should be ahead more often not. I can see checking if were sure he only calls or raises with the part of his range that beast us, but this shouldn't be the case with most SS players.
As played I would think he bets AK sometimes on river. Our play suggests he might have the nut non pair hand.

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03-03-2012 , 05:28 PM

Bob147

adept

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 915

Quote:

Originally Posted by San Hoser

Is a river bet always polarized an overpair?

It depends on what he thinks you'd do with this exact hand. If I've been foldy I'd call. If I've been a showdown monkey I'd fold. The problem is that 77 is probably close to the top of your range after you check call twice. Would you check raise A8s on the flop? I might not since this guy's not too aggressive.

Edit for crueleye: The decision on the flop is check call or check raise. The check is standard unless your opponent has a big tendency to check back in spots like this. Against an unknown you should assume he c bets a lot heads up. Donking lets him get away cheap, peel comfortably, and jam you when he's strong.

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03-03-2012 , 05:43 PM

SadDonkey

Juris Donktorate

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,709

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob147

All of this, especially the edit. Personally I would check raise this flop: it's an excellent flop for you as there are very few 8s in his range, and additional aggression on his part let's you get away cheaply.

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03-03-2012 , 05:48 PM

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,413

flop k/r?

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03-03-2012 , 06:04 PM

Grease

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 6,461

Yeah why not C/R the flop for value and go from there? This is a pretty awesome flop that will let us V/B bricks against his over type hands and if he isn't super aggro we can probably fold the turn if the 3-bets. Obv if he will 3-bet AK and spazz post we're not folding but we're also probably not C/Ring unless he is super LAG, but against someone who is "neutral" I C/R for value and go from there.

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03-03-2012 , 07:25 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by San Hoser

Any issues with calling all three streets post?

Yeah, if you're 50/50 on the flop, then you win 1.5 BB when ahead and lose 2.5 BB when behind (most people won't continue firing AJ/AQ and some not AK). You need a slight equity advantage when (c/c)^3.

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03-03-2012 , 07:36 PM

#10

Trex8063

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,412

Don't have stove handy; gut tells me it's right on the margin, highly dependent on if he's 3-barreling AK (AQ?) and on how wide his pf 3bet range is (66-77 in there, for instance??). But I'm not sure I like the calldown safe board idea to begin with.

In general, I'd probably have c/r the flop and gone from there.

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03-03-2012 , 08:34 PM

#11

ReasonableGuy

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,617

As played, does anyone think a turn k/r has merit? We've picked up a gutter for a little additional equity and may get villain to incorrectly fold his unimproved overcard hands.

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03-03-2012 , 08:52 PM

#12

Chasqui

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by crueleye

I think I bet this flop.

OP, whatever you do, don't do this.

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03-03-2012 , 08:54 PM

#13

Nchabazam

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,938

This is a tricky spot. My intuition tells me we don't have enough equity to want to c/r this flop HU, but I haven't played around with stove at all. Your range of AJ/TT don't really match up for the average player. It's likely something like AQs/AKo and TT, or a wider pair range.

I don't think we get called down by A high basically ever, so it's an issue of getting 1 street of value that he might check behind vs potentially getting free carded. That being said he might take a bet/bet/check line in which case we get roughly the same value out of overcard hands.

I think you played this hand fine, and I would call the river.

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03-04-2012 , 01:50 AM

#14

KL03

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,413

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReasonableGuy

As played, does anyone think a turn k/r has merit? We've picked up a gutter for a little additional equity and may get villain to incorrectly fold his unimproved overcard hands.

I considered it, but I think you're only folding out worse hands and you're putting in at least 1 extra bet when you're beat.

From villains perspective, is it really incorrect to fold AK to a turn k/r?

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03-04-2012 , 04:07 AM

#15

asmitty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,607

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nchabazam

If this is the case, why isn't the correct line c/c c/c c/f?

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03-04-2012 , 05:55 AM

#16

Pid Koker

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,748

let's try this: if you don't know what villain is betting with on the end (overpair, underpair, u/i overs, air), then you shouldn't k/r the flop. not sure this makes sense, but i've got this idea in my head...

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03-04-2012 , 08:08 AM

#17

Chasqui

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by San Hoser

I have 50% on flop and turn vs original PF range.

Is a river bet always polarized an overpair?

What do you mean by having 50% on flop and turn? Where did you get this number from?

Regarding what a river bet means, we can't answer, we don't know this villian.

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03-04-2012 , 08:45 AM

#18

Nchabazam

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by asmitty

If this is the case, why isn't the correct line c/c c/c c/f?

Because I have no idea what this guy is betting on the river. Until I formulate a read that he isn't "bluffing" with AK, I'm not folding this hand yet.

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03-04-2012 , 01:36 PM

#19

crueleye

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 959

Nobody else has players in their game who will 3 bet A/K PF and then check behind on a dry flop?

Sure, not too common in most 15/30 games, but this hand has been posted in the small stakes forum. Villain has been described as neutral. I guess I thought that meant he wasn't C-betting UI 100% of the time. The flop is better for us than for him. So I want to bet. Monkey??

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03-05-2012 , 01:13 PM

#20

rodeo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 3,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nchabazam

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03-05-2012 , 01:15 PM

#21

rodeo

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 3,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by crueleye

what does donk betting in this spot accomplish?

put yourself in villains shoes and think about how you would play an overpair or ui overs vs. a donk bet.

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03-06-2012 , 02:23 PM

#22

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,134

Quote:

Originally Posted by San Hoser

Grunch

I think I might CR this flop but vs said villian I'm not sure.

If i'm calling ott I'm calling otr.

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03-07-2012 , 12:03 AM

#23

San Hoser

journeyman

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 251

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

What line do you take?

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03-07-2012 , 12:09 AM

#24

San Hoser

journeyman

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 251

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chasqui

What do you mean by having 50% on flop and turn? Where did you get this number from?

Regarding what a river bet means, we can't answer, we don't know this villian.

Thats a range of AJ+, TT+ vs 77 on the flop. 50% assuming the range doesn't change on the turn. I'm expecting the villian to cbet almost 100% of the time after a 3 bet. So my flop equity is probably correct. However, I admit my turn range seems a bit optimistic: probably closer AQs+, AK, TT+. This range gives my 39% in Stove.

Last edited by San Hoser; 03-07-2012 at 12:12 AM. Reason: Fat Finger