tight game at bellagio...5 limpers and we have 55otb. Limp or raise? Trying to settle argument with friend

Raise.

five limpers? sounds like a real tight game.

anyways raise preflop.

can you guys explain why it is best to raise with a pretty weak hand in what will be a multiway pot?

Ima Limp.

i just limp here

you also wanted to raise the turn drawing dead, so OP should consider that

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-10-a-1188204/

Here are a couple arguments for raising:
1. You actually have an equity edge. If you take AA-JJ and AK out of your opponents ranges Pokerstove shows 55 with a 3-4% edge.
2. Raising this OTB preflop will often result in a 4 card flop for you. Even if someone else bets the flop you'll likely have implied odds to continue on in the hand.

It could go either way. I don't think we're going to be able to "settle" this argument.

With what range for opponents Eck? OP describes game as tight, so villains will be limping pocket pairs, suited broadways, suited aces, some larger suited connectors. I think we can take AA-KK out of later limpers ranges but not the earlier ones.

I'm not a fan of calling on the premise that it prices us in to make thin calls on the flop (i.e. continuing with 8:1 odds, where we'd fold in a smaller pot).

One argument in favor is that if we flop a set our opponents are much more likely to continue due to pot size and because your hand is disguised.
Something to consider is the postflop aggression and action you expect if you raise vs if you limp.

RAISE

You probably have the best hand
AND
you have the best position after taking a flop

I gave 4 of the opponents ranges somewhere between top 20-25% of hands minus AA-JJ and AK. The 5th opponent has a range of top 40% of hands, arguably too loose but hey, he's in the cutoff and 4 people have already limped in I'll try adding JJ and AK back into the opponents ranges but this is what I ran before:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.482% 20.40% 00.08% 1395080521 5748977.33 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 14.683% 13.78% 00.90% 942437958 61763303.00 { TT-66, AQs-A3s, K7s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A8o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 12.553% 11.79% 00.77% 806138327 52434876.67 { 99-66, AJs-A2s, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, AJo-A7o, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 16.012% 15.42% 00.59% 1054700644 40442165.67 { TT-66, ATs-A2s, KJs-K6s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, AJo-A7o, KJo-K9o, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 18.144% 16.76% 01.39% 1146169438 94758947.17 { TT-55, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, AJo-A5o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 18.125% 16.56% 01.57% 1132538670 107121324.17 { TT-44, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Here are stove results for tighter ranges:


109,127,211 games 381.656 secs 285,930 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.800% 19.66% 00.14% 21456959 150356.17 { 55 }
Hand 1: 18.027% 16.89% 01.13% 18434948 1237702.83 { QQ-66, A3s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 17.229% 16.09% 01.14% 17558856 1242783.83 { QQ-66, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A9o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 16.237% 15.09% 01.15% 16468959 1250175.92 { JJ-66, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 14.875% 13.75% 01.12% 15010224 1222943.33 { TT-55, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 13.831% 12.87% 00.96% 14043232 1050336.58 { TT-44, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A2o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Raising here is way more justifyable, why would OP limp and fold most flops? Where he can raise flop a 5 and win a huge pot or if everyone checks the flop to him, he has the option to take a free turn card?

1. lol this is a terrible reason to raise 55 after 5 limpers, how often do you think you're going to win UI in a 6-8-way pot?
2. will you not have the best position postflop if you just limp?

fwiw, i'm pretty indifferent about raising pf here but the reasons you listed are bad

I think equity-wise it's probably close to break-even, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse. My thought is that for an extra SB, we will buy some four-card flops, build a bigger pot for the times we do hit, and make it easier for us to realize our equity on future streets. Raising also makes our range a bit wider and thereby harder to play against. I think raising is probably good as long as you don't barrel away mindlessly postflop, although if you play poorly post or are just averse to variance there's nothing wrong with limping (and you're probably doing something wrong if you don't overlimp a pretty wide range in this spot).

Trying to push some theoretical equity edge by raising 55 here isn't horrible, but maybe silly.

It's not like we need cover for our "limping after 5 range". Doing it once in a while for fun with 0EV is fine and all but if you put in a lot of hours of play I'd recommend against it.

Its this all day.

The problem is that a significant chunk of your all-in equity lies in the times when you hit your 5 on the turn or river after you've already folded. Take that into account and your real equity is probably pretty close to break even.

This is a reason to raise, DUCY?

I overlimp In my game because flop donking is so prevalent. Is this so bad (results oriented)?

After all vacuum theory is understood you should make logical adjustments based on your knowledge of your opponents tendencies.

In this particular case (that being 55 otb w/ 5 limpers) then you might consider raising if the utg or utg1 tend to be donkers. If the bb is a lag that donks often as well. The reason is that they may donk into the field and the field may call and then you can realize a lot of bets very early and build quite a large pot by raising them.

The general idea of raising a weak hand that tends to do well multi-way (otb or otherwise) is to tie everyone to a large pot or get additional action that you otherwise wouldn't (especially if they knew what you had). This takes some amount of knowledge about your villians' tendencies.

an example...

In the case of OP, if these tight players are also likely to get aggresive in large pots then a raise might be a good idea. If there are a few players that tend to go nuts with draws in large mulitway pots. That is, they will raise and reraise otf with a flush draw or OESD if the pot is large and there are a couple callers in. Further, there tend to be a couple callers in between more often when the pot gets large. Then a raise might be a good idea here because sometimes you will win a really belligerently sized pot.

honestly guys, there is no right or wrong answer in a vacuum with 55.

if you had 88+, it's for straight value.

with 22-55, these hands i'd raise after all these limpers if I was playing in a game where they check to the raiser.

In this case, it's worth the extra sb to try to see the turn card for free. If it's a donk fest, I just limp and try to flop a set.

I'd prolly raise w 66.

It really doesn't matter.

I just overlimp here.

Unfortunately, this is one of those spots where I don't think a hot/cold calculator like stove will give an entirely accurate picture, because it assumes we always see the river (which is surely not the case in a multiway pot with 55).

Even if not facing two bets cold, suppose the flop is Q-T-7 rb, there's a bet and one or two cc'ers.......would you want to overcall 55 here? Could be you'd hit a set on the turn (or river), but this is one of many spots where you simply will not be taking the hand that far (which is why stove doesn't offer a clear picture of this hand's true equity).

This at least is often true, unless one of the limpers is a habitual donk-bettor. It still will often not get us as far as the river, though.

Hero's getting nice odds to set-mine (and ip, too); that'd be my plan with this hand.