Quote:
Originally Posted by SageLee
HI, had a quick question about a certain situation (see image).
So I was checking out the EV flow in this hand, and saw something that I found peculiar. It says that the CO, who will be in the BB next hand with less than 2.5 BBs, gains EV the next hand, while the SB, who will be on the button next hand, will lose about that same amount of EV. I'm trusting that this isn't a bug or anything, but I'm uncertain as to how this could be the case. Could you explain how the extremely short stack in a 4-handed situation is going to gain EV next hand by going into the BB (and similarly for the SB, who next hand will be in the most favorable position farthest from the blinds, and yet loses EV)? Is there something favorable about being forced to (likely) commit such a tiny stack to a random hand such that you gain EV in this spot? Or does it have something to do with how likely some stacks might be to fold very bad hands to you, that they might otherwise push, because they know you have little to lose and prob have to call? Etc?
Would love to understand the math better on these EV shifts here. Thanks for any input you (or anyone else) might have.
Hi SageLee.
Thanks for the question, can I ask first what kind of browser or setting you are using, which causes everything to be so ugly? All fonts are screwed up, its not supposed to be like that..
Regarding your question - first of all
EV Flow is a rather advanced feature so it is naturally hard to understand.
One thing to notice is that the difference between hands (current and next) really doesn't mean too much, however, it can indicate that the currently selected ICM model is pretty flawed for this particular situation. A perfect model & Nash ranges shouldn't change the value of stacks by much in just 1 hand.
However, getting closer to actual reasons. You are seeing how EV of CO changes according to the selected model after this hand. The + side is explained by the non zero probability of big stack busting some other stack, not the CO. If there is a smaller probability of bubble burst this hand, our +EV estimation according to FGS3 model, which you're using in this case, goes down.
https://www.icmpoker.com/screenshot/NTdypz/
With FGS3 we're looking at 4 hands and in them, CO goes BB next hand, then he can get to SB position and hand after that he can get to BTN. All these additional hands improve his forecast for this tournament.
Check what FGS1 sees and forecasts for CO. FGS1 looks at current and just 1 hand ahead, where CO becomes BB. Looks pretty bad for him, right?
https://www.icmpoker.com/screenshot/Oceisn/
FGS2 model sees how he becomes SB and improves his equity by a lot:
https://www.icmpoker.com/screenshot/OleSvb/
Hope this makes some sense