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Giffordonian: June 1st Sunday MTTs Giffordonian: June 1st Sunday MTTs

06-04-2014 , 08:30 AM
Initially I was on Giffs side on this. I thought this was just a stir from a bunch of jealous haters because he didn't include the Sunday Million in his Sunday schedule and he posted a "misleading" graph instead of a graph for the buy ins he was selling for in his pack. A few things on that...
  • It is 100% on the investors to look at the games being sold for when buying action, it's listed there for a reason! Buying a Sunday package and assuming it has the Million because there are a bunch of similar games is very foolish.
  • It's up for investors to observe and interpret the graphs/stats posted in threads correctly, and also realise that they might not apply to the pack being sold for. I don't think there is anything wrong with posting your lifetime graph (which includes a bunch of b5-b55 FT scores) when selling for a $109+ buy in schedule. Posting filtered results for your past four month heater is a little questionable on the seller, however, it can be interpreted correctly if you spend more than a few seconds glancing at it, and should lead to investors doing further research on the horses stats and questioning why he is trying to hide his poorer results. It's all there to be seen.

The posts from Pablito and others ITT were very educational on the MP so thanks for that. I think the big MP issue with giff here, as others have said is that...
  • He isn't +EV/is marginally +EV for the games he is selling for.
  • He is selling action at a high markup to increase his own EV for games his backer obviously doesn't think he is +EV in, making marketplace investors suffer.
  • His MP packages have a second priority over his initial grind schedule (not in terms of standard of play but he said he only plays 12 tables, so say he hardly busts a thing all day, only a small portion of the MP package will get played, meaning higher variance for investors and less variance for giff).
  • He filters his graphs/stats to make himself look better than he actually is. Which can be seen as deceiving and draws his character slightly into question, ie, prepared to deceive in order to get the best deal for himself.
06-04-2014 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by handbag86
Initially I was on Giffs side on this. I thought this was just a stir from a bunch of jealous haters because he didn't include the Sunday Million in his Sunday schedule and he posted a "misleading" graph instead of a graph for the buy ins he was selling for in his pack. A few things on that...
  • It is 100% on the investors to look at the games being sold for when buying action, it's listed there for a reason! Buying a Sunday package and assuming it has the Million because there are a bunch of similar games is very foolish.
  • It's up for investors to observe and interpret the graphs/stats posted in threads correctly, and also realise that they might not apply to the pack being sold for. I don't think there is anything wrong with posting your lifetime graph (which includes a bunch of b5-b55 FT scores) when selling for a $109+ buy in schedule. Posting filtered results for your past four month heater is a little questionable on the seller, however, it can be interpreted correctly if you spend more than a few seconds glancing at it, and should lead to investors doing further research on the horses stats and questioning why he is trying to hide his poorer results. It's all there to be seen.

The posts from Pablito and others ITT were very educational on the MP so thanks for that. I think the big MP issue with giff here, as others have said is that...
  • He isn't +EV/is marginally +EV for the games he is selling for.
  • He is selling action at a high markup to increase his own EV for games his backer obviously doesn't think he is +EV in, making marketplace investors suffer.
  • His MP packages have a second priority over his initial grind schedule (not in terms of standard of play but he said he only plays 12 tables, so say he hardly busts a thing all day, only a small portion of the MP package will get played, meaning higher variance for investors and less variance for giff).
  • He filters his graphs/stats to make himself look better than he actually is. Which can be seen as deceiving and draws his character slightly into question, ie, prepared to deceive in order to get the best deal for himself.
Pretty good cliff notes here. How people are defending his actions is really mind boggling. Unfortunately I think the chances of Giff responding to post and all the legitimate questions answered are just as great as him making investors money from these packs......not gonna happen.
06-04-2014 , 08:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
Would be really interested to hear peoples comments who are slating Giff on these packs, and break them down like you have done with Giffs.

If we take some similar sized packs from this sunday gone from the mid-high buyin range what are the detractors thoughts on the packs? - be great to hear from guysmiley,pablito,blackwerewolf,breackyaneck etc

Im not on anyones side as its way above what i can afford to invest, but do feel that Giff is being picked on here with no-one jumping on other people selling in the market place and would be great to get a balanced view.

Few Simialr packs from Sunday (The first ones ive come across while going down the list)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...6-1-a-1447922/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...ounts-1448373/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...-08-a-1448355/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...ckage-1448130/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...unday-1448010/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...etime-1448146/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/16...unday-1448235/
how about replying to this breakyaneck?
06-04-2014 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
how about replying to this breakyaneck?
Quickly looking through those links I dont see anyone trying to deceive the public by posting graphs that are not relevant or filtering it for how they want to come off. I saw alot of people making player groups on sharkscope and posting all of their sns. I suggested earlier that Giff just posts his sns from now on from all sites and just stop the graphs. My post was ignored.

As for if they are +EV in what they are selling, no idea, didnt look into hard and didnt spend alot of time on it.

I dont have an issue with people charging MU if they are posting all the facts. The reason people here have a problem with Giff's MU is that he isnt profitable for what he is selling and leads people on to try to get them to think that he is and it has worked very well for him so far.

Hope this helps a bit, may spend some more time on this later to see if these people have any sort of deception in their posts
06-04-2014 , 09:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
how about replying to this breakyaneck?
I would also say that the majority of these appear to be own dimers selling off action, rather than a horse selling off some action for the higher variance part of his Sunday schedule that his backer doesn't want to put him in. This is just an assumption based off the fact that games like b22, b55, Sunday Million are included.

This would lead me to believe that MP investors would have the horses full attention on the games being sold for and the majority of the pack would be played, rather than loading up some high variance turbo/hyper/reg infested field because you have busted all your high value stuff you didn't sell for.

I didn't look into any of their stats or wither the packs are good buys or not.
06-04-2014 , 09:11 AM
Surely people investing should know all the facts. Its clear from this thread some investors didn't. If during a four month period your up over 50k and not showing a profit for investors then there is clearly something wrong. Using investors to reduce variance on the harder games why playing the softer games for yourself/backer is at best sneaky and at worst just plain wrong.
06-04-2014 , 09:14 AM
What are the filters on the graph? It looks to me like it is only filtered for date and nothing else
06-04-2014 , 09:14 AM
fair enough breakyaneck - just seems to me that a hell of alot of people have time to spend looking into into Giffs packs without a word on other peoples packs

Seems a bit like bullying to me and if people are going to spend so much time on it then lets see a balanced view on other people selling in the MP.

I do understand alot of the points but at the end of the day - he has just shipped 100k in a tourney that yeah maybe slightly easier than a few of the MTT listed, but its still a massive achievement to get through such a huge field and make such a score - this to me says he would be investable to alot of people and this is why he can sell packs.

The graph thing is defo up to the investor to check out as well - not all blame can be placed on Giff here

Think the thread is being turned into a lets have ago at Giff and no mention of other people selling in the MP
06-04-2014 , 09:18 AM
I do understand alot of the points but at the end of the day - he has just shipped 100k in a tourney that yeah maybe slightly easier than a few of the MTT listed, but its still a massive achievement to get through such a huge field and make such a score - this to me says he would be investable to alot of people and this is why he can sell packs.

Yeah but if hes scoring big scores in games that are softer than the ones he includes in the pack and using them in the graph but not including them in the pack then its wrong. Investors are investing in a pack that does not include all the games he's playing that are included in the graph. Are investors up no. Is he yes says it all really.
06-04-2014 , 09:21 AM
What giff is doing isn't common at all so even if we did go through all the others I think you would be surprised at how few do exactly what giff does
06-04-2014 , 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
Would be really interested to hear peoples comments who are slating Giff on these packs, and break them down like you have done with Giffs.
- All include the Sunday Million and other high-value tourneys;
- These ppl are winning in the package they offer, and can't only play it +EV because of the MU;
- None of these players seemed to have a backer for the remaining %;
- Only 1 of them used deceptive information in their OP (boliver by including stats with RB, which isn't relevant for the pack);
- All of them gave their package priority over other tourneys played;
- All of them listed specific results;
- 1 Of them did his buyers an unneeded favor (melontown refunding markup on the Supersonic) without having binked a 6-figure cash.

Giffordonian's pack is without a doubt the nut-low by any of the measures above, and it isn't close.
06-04-2014 , 09:30 AM
The deafening silence from Giff should tell you all you need to know. Tough to try and defend yourself when you are wrong in pretty much every single way. He is just going to ignore this and hope it goes away.
06-04-2014 , 09:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nationstation
What are the filters on the graph? It looks to me like it is only filtered for date and nothing else
Yes that is correct but it can be regarded as deceiving because that is not a true representation of his life time stats, although as I said earlier, up for investors to look into that on their own. By filtering the dates he made his ROI appear to be 130%, when in actual fact it was closer to 30%. It's not like he had never played the 33c or any $215s+ previous to these dates so he is leaving out games at these stakes he has played previously (when he was breaking even for lots of games) and including his recent results (when he had a few binks) in order to boost his ROI.

See this post:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=149

Last edited by handbag86; 06-04-2014 at 09:36 AM.
06-04-2014 , 09:32 AM
The basics of it is the are not positive for backers but positive for the player. That is without doubt. Its not good enough to say people should be more careful etc etc. Well they should be they shouldn't be deceived. Posting a graph that does not reflect the pack is not right. Again playing tough games in the pack and also at the same time playing softer games as well is not right. If your investing in someone you want to be able to invest in there best chance of scoring not in games where they don't have an edge.

Investors are not winning here. Surely over the period where the player has had hugh scores investors getting nothing is not right.
06-04-2014 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by winwin20
I do understand alot of the points but at the end of the day - he has just shipped 100k in a tourney that yeah maybe slightly easier than a few of the MTT listed, but its still a massive achievement to get through such a huge field and make such a score - this to me says he would be investable to alot of people and this is why he can sell packs.

Yeah but if hes scoring big scores in games that are softer than the ones he includes in the pack and using them in the graph but not including them in the pack then its wrong. Investors are investing in a pack that does not include all the games he's playing that are included in the graph. Are investors up no. Is he yes says it all really.
But that is up to the investor to check out graphs, roi in games etc - surely?

I really dont get this issue that the SM is a lot softer than the ones he is selling in this pack - there must also be games in this pack that are as soft as the SM? and if he had binked one of those nothing would be said.
06-04-2014 , 09:35 AM
Well being up 50k in four months but nothing for investors shows that the games he does not include are indeed softer. As an investor surely would be peeved about this.
06-04-2014 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
But that is up to the investor to check out graphs, roi in games etc - surely?
Sure, but that isn't mutually exclusive with not deceiving investors.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
there must also be games in this pack that are as soft as the SM?
No there aren't. Giffordonian did a remarkable job at game-selecting. If there was one, his backer would have kept that tourney for himself.
06-04-2014 , 09:44 AM
His overall pack sold at 1.13 for these games

Could someone please break this down into what games would be acceptable for Giff to sell @ 1.13 and which games are not?

Also if he included the Sunday Million what would be a realistic MU on the pack before he had the score and after he had the score?

Just curious as i dont know and would help me to understand


Stars

16:30 $33 1r1a ($93) $9k
17:00 $109r Sunday Rebuy ($309) $225k
17:00 $82 Hyper-Turbo 6-Max $14k
17:30 $215 Weekly NLO8 $18k
18:15 $55 Turbo 2x Chance ($105) $20k
18:30 $33r ($93) $12k
19:00 $109 Turbo 2x Chance ($209) $30k
19:45 $215 Turbo $30k
20:30 $530 Sunday 500 $300k
20:30 $55r ($155) $20k
21:30 $215 Sunday 2nd Chance $175k
21:30 $109 1r1a Turbo ($309) $30k
22:00 $162 Sunday 6-Max $100k
22:15 $109 Turbo $30k
22:30 $55r PLO ($155) $7.5k
22:30 $109r ($309) $40k
23:30 $215 Sunday Supersonic $125k

FTP

16:00 $255 Sunday Brawl $100k
18:30 $215 Sunday Major Re-Entry ($430) $150k
20:00 $162 T-Rex $60k
22:00 $109 Turbo Multi-Hundo Multi-Entry ($309) $50k

888

17:30 $215 Mega Deep $125k
18:05 $215 Turbo Mega Deep $50k
19:00 $530 WHALE $200k
20:30 $180 Sunday Challenge $100k

Titan

18:00 €75 Sunday Special Multi-Entry (€300) €150k
06-04-2014 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by winwin20
Well being up 50k in four months but nothing for investors shows that the games he does not include are indeed softer. As an investor surely would be peeved about this.
It might but it might not. This a short period of time and a very small sample so this could have been the other way around: Giff could have shipped the Sunday 500 and be in red numbers in the Million/Warm Up.

However, it is true that the different fields (degree of reg infestation) should lead us to think that in the long run Giff and all other players should have a bigger ROI at SM or Warm Up than at, say, Sunday 500. But this conclusion should be drawn after looking at a a huge sample of a single player (something which is unlikely to happen) or a big pool of similar players who have played these tournaments over and over again.

And BTW, there is nothing wrong with selling harder or softer, cheap or expensive, PLO or NLH tournaments. All you have to do is be clear about what you are selling and all the terms and conditions of your package.
06-04-2014 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yorkies knob
His overall pack sold at 1.13 for these games

Could someone please break this down into what games would be acceptable for Giff to sell @ 1.13 and which games are not?

Also if he included the Sunday Million what would be a realistic MU on the pack before he had the score and after he had the score?

Just curious as i dont know and would help me to understand


Stars

16:30 $33 1r1a ($93) $9k
17:00 $109r Sunday Rebuy ($309) $225k
17:00 $82 Hyper-Turbo 6-Max $14k
17:30 $215 Weekly NLO8 $18k
18:15 $55 Turbo 2x Chance ($105) $20k
18:30 $33r ($93) $12k
19:00 $109 Turbo 2x Chance ($209) $30k
19:45 $215 Turbo $30k
20:30 $530 Sunday 500 $300k
20:30 $55r ($155) $20k
21:30 $215 Sunday 2nd Chance $175k
21:30 $109 1r1a Turbo ($309) $30k
22:00 $162 Sunday 6-Max $100k
22:15 $109 Turbo $30k
22:30 $55r PLO ($155) $7.5k
22:30 $109r ($309) $40k
23:30 $215 Sunday Supersonic $125k

FTP

16:00 $255 Sunday Brawl $100k
18:30 $215 Sunday Major Re-Entry ($430) $150k
20:00 $162 T-Rex $60k
22:00 $109 Turbo Multi-Hundo Multi-Entry ($309) $50k

888

17:30 $215 Mega Deep $125k
18:05 $215 Turbo Mega Deep $50k
19:00 $530 WHALE $200k
20:30 $180 Sunday Challenge $100k

Titan

18:00 €75 Sunday Special Multi-Entry (€300) €150k
I think Giff and his backer realise he isnt profitable in this schedule and thats why he has to sell it. Doesnt take a genius to work out he is just hustling the market place to make himself some more money.

Nothing wrong with that though...
06-04-2014 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhySoSrs?
I think Giff and his backer realise he isnt profitable in this schedule and thats why he has to sell it. Doesnt take a genius to work out he is just hustling the market place to make himself some more money.

Nothing wrong with that though...
so if he had included the sunday million then he would be profitable?
06-04-2014 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhySoSrs?
I think Giff and his backer realise he isnt profitable in this schedule and thats why he has to sell it. Doesnt take a genius to work out he is just hustling the market place to make himself some more money.

Nothing wrong with that though...
This. It is just how he is going about it by posting misleading numbers to try and show he is profitable in the pack when he really isnt.
06-04-2014 , 10:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck
This. It is just how he is going about it by posting misleading numbers to try and show he is profitable in the pack when he really isnt.

But if he had included the sunday million then he would be profitable and there would be no issue?

He didnt so if someone could breakdown what ive asked that would be appreciated to make it clearer for people investing?

May also help the MP in general on what people should charge and what is fair to investors?
06-04-2014 , 10:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhySoSrs?
I think Giff and his backer realise he isnt profitable in this schedule and thats why he has to sell it. Doesnt take a genius to work out he is just hustling the market place to make himself some more money.

Nothing wrong with that though...
Imo, he is in the euro tournies and the omaha's. I'm the wrong guy to judge in which ones he is in the nl ones on stars and ftp.

Regarding the high turbos and hypers, probably 5% (or some silly low number) of the field are profitable.
06-04-2014 , 10:12 AM
His markup is irrelevant, it's an open market and people can charge whatever they want - it should be down to the buyer to decide if his packs are profitable investments. I agree that him posting filtered graphs is preety shady and can definately be misleading but it's ridiculous that people think they are owed something because they feel sunday million should of been included.

All the games he was selling for are clearly stated and he is obviously entitled to keep 100% of any games outside of the package.

      
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