OK I've made an unofficial prop bet with someone on a poker site I play that I can beat them in a first to 10 in English/Eight ball pool. If we play it will be in just over a month.

I'm the number 1 for our Uni team (although it's not great in it's pool ranking at all) and also play for County (B team) - I recently played a strong A team player in a best of 9 and best of 5 and lost on the decider both times. Our county isn't the strongest but it does have a couple of England/ex England players and some England seniors in it.

Anyway all I know about the guy I'm playing is that he said he likes to hustle people in games of pool but his main game is snooker. He was a pro but gave up due to lack of motivation (max break 146) - He also told me he plays badly when drunk. Not sure how badly exactly, but even when I'm drunk I can still play OK.

Strengths - V good safety game, pretty decent long potting.
Weaknesses - Can sometimes bottle it under pressure. Although I have done well under pressure at times too. Confidence is a big issue - if I'm playing confident I can beat anyway but suck on low confidence.

Confidence and bottle are basically intertwined. Many players use selective memory to think back over low pressure games where the kill someone and think they were very confident and use confidence as their excuse to lose when they can't take the pressure. That being said, if you have potted well under pressure in some spots you may have better chances, but losing in deciders and even just admitting it as a weakness is a worrying point from this limited info.

Most very high grade match players just understand what they can do, have a steady faith in their ability, and understand the inherent variance in the game should not change your shot selection, rhythm and cue action. Good players miss under pressure at a similar rate to they do without pressure - that's how you need to evaluate it. If you have missed a lot of easy balls under pressure this is most likely a very big leak in your game.

If you are a decent standard amateur with a history of playing badly under pressure, up against a 146 break ex-pro snooker player on a UK 8 ball table to ten, you probably have a 2-4% chance of winning if your breaks go well and you can get an early lead/winning chances and pile on the pressure. Might even be a lower number depending on how good he is under pressure/at rail and bank shots/breaking.

If you think about your two strengths here - safety and long potting, I can categorically tell you that anyone that can hit near a 146 will be light years ahead of you in both areas. Your only real hope is that they are totally new to one of the more obscure 8 ball variants like World rules that you insist on playing, ane even then it will probably only change your win % by 1-2 at most - good players can adapt very quickly to basically any game.

Your strengths are most likely far out matched and your weaknesses are pretty damning in this spot, and you should probably refuse this bet unless you know him to be a bs merchant - in which case he will most likely back down anyway.

I'd refuse it. If he came 1 point away from a perfect break in snooker, it implies he's easily capable of hitting centuries on a regular basis.. I'd assume in general, a snooker player - especially one that's capable of making century breaks consistently- has insane cue action, cue ball control, accuracy, and positioning. Put him on a 7 footer and I don't think he'll miss.

Thanks for the responses.

Regarding "bottling under pressure" I probably overstated it as a weakness, when it's not. Last time I played for money it was a first to 25 against another county player. I was something like 19-14 down iirc and came back to win 25-24 so can definitely up my game under pressure as well. (Also against same person I was 24-14 down and won 9 games on the bounce before losing 25-23) I also won 2 deciding frames for our Uni team.

I guess if anything I have a weakness that when there's little pressure (at the start of a game) I tend to play a game I don't play under pressure.

Oh yeh, I also forgot tactical ability (esp. in tight games as a strength) Which is definitely a HUGE factor in pool. I usually like to make the other player go for a clearance first (when it's a low percentage) b/c I know if they don't make it I have a v good chance of winning.

Still, from what you've both said I'm not so sure about my chances anymore! I think if I had a handicap of +3 games I might consider it!

Snooker players>Pool donkeys.

I kid but honestly, if he has ever potted a 146..you would be insane to take the bet unless he gives you a whole lotta edge. Somehow or rather, I do think that snooker players have more bottle when faced with long pots..not to mention you're gonna play on a smaller table with him.

Hmm I'm still not completely convinced that he has a huge edge vs me. In eight ball pool, if you're good enough to break and dish and have a great tactical game, you can beat anyone s'long as you're playing well. Also I've noticed my game has improved tenfold in the last week alone - my posture before was wrong but since I've corrected it, my potting accuracy has improved massively.

Before, I was pretty poor at snooker, but today I had a long potting accuracy that you might see from a pro on an average day. Including an unbelievable long brown where I also got a ton of backspin to get on the blue.

If this was american pool I know I'd have no chance but like I said, in English pool - if you get good breaks and the opponent isn't so lucky with his breaks, it's possible to win, even if you're playing against someone who can pot most balls on the table.

I'll be brutally honest with you, this type of thinking is basically how all weak amateurs get into trouble playing cash games.

Reasoning built on everything going well for you, badly for him, and that you keep playing to the standard you have been in a few practice games is about as shaky a foundation as you can get.

Obviously you might win under these specific circumstances, but as I said in my original OP, this probably amounts to only about a 2-4% chance. Basically all other scenarios you get destroyed - even him breaking bad all night is not a clear edge for you; he will most likely be better at bringing balls out, taking problem balls on and thinking through the orders better than you - not to mention consistent potting and cue ball control.

If you break nice and don't clear you lose. You break bad you probably lose. He breaks well you lose. He breaks badly you probably lose.

Looks slim pickings to me.

wamy has it right, you're pretty much a big dog here. dunno if it's quite as bad as he's making out, but i wouldn't be taking this for anywhere near even money. good snooker players can easily come over and rape face (see also mark selby deciding to become world champion just because he can)

Frames and short races yes, the longer you play...

Variance in pool is pretty high once players get to a semi-competent level. Even if you are seriously outclassed by your opponent, in races to 3 or 5 you may feel like you are in with a shot, but probably aren't.

I'll echo Wamy's sentiments here. If you think you've improved massively in a week then you're probability of beating a cueist capable of century breaks is small.

if he has had 146
FORGET IT

Snooker players are always better than native pool players so you will have a tough time beating a snooker player who almost turned pro. I think your best bet would be to play uber defensive.