Hannibal's third week DVR numbers are in, and the spread is the same as the second week. It looks like Hannibal's L+7 is a .6 spread between L+SD and L+7 in the 18-49 demo. That means that you should view all of the L+SD ratings as if they have a .6 bump. So, for last week that means the 1.1 should translate to a 1.7 in the L+7 (which translates to a 1.5 in L+3). I think this now means we are looking at a better than 50/50 shot of renewal, though I still would like to see it bump up to a 1.3 in L+SD to be confident in NBC's decision making abilities (remember, NBC actually renewed the show after season 1 with ratings right around what they are right now).

Probably coming as a surprise to some, both of NBC's Sunday shows are not doing as badly as it appears in L+SD ratings. Both of those shows (Believe and Crisis) are in very competitive time slots, and both are doing very well (for Sunday) in the DVR ratings. Believe's hard premiere had a 1.5 in L+SD (enough to predict renewal if it were happening that day), but its L+7 bumped up to a 2.3 (2.1 in L+3). That's a big jump, and if it holds a similar spread for the last two lower rated episodes, I still think it will get renewed for Sundays only. Crisis is in a similar boat, though with slightly lower ratings (is Crisis scheduled as a one off season, or is it something that can continue?). If it can be renewed, its spread is a bit lower than Believe's with its premiere going from a 1.6 in L+SD to a 2.2 in L+7 (2.0 in L+3). Both those numbers would be good enough for renewal, but it dropped significantly in weeks 2 and 3. If the two shows retained their premiere spreads, Believe would be a little above the bubble for renewal (in my opinion), and Crisis would be canceled (being slightly below the bubble for Sunday renewal, after factoring in L+3). Next week should let us know whether they retained their spread. If they both did, then these predictions might be fairly accurate (a 1.5 in L+3 should be good enough to get renewed on Sundays for mid-season, but you never know).

Another note is that I can officially predict renewal for The Goldbergs. Most ABC sitcoms do horribly in L+7, but that one is a good performer (goes from a 1.5 in L+SD, which is essentially the ABC bubble, to a 2.3 in L+7, a really solid performance). Trophy Wife is still getting canceled. Mixology has terrible L+7 ratings, so it's probably getting canceled, as well. It was at a 1.5 in L+SD, and only went to a 1.8 in the L+7 (1.6 in L+3). ABC is expecting shows to have high L+SD or high L+3. If it has neither, it's done. For shows that perform that poorly in DVR, the minimum number necessary for renewal is about a 1.8 in the L+SD, and that really long titled name of some dumb sitcom I never watched is probably a good example that proves that a 1.8 might not even be enough for some shows.

Final notes are that I still think Revolution has a good shot at renewal, due to its pretty good L+7 ratings. It goes from a 1.3 in L+SD to a 2.1 in L+7 (1.9 in L+3). There's no way it would be renewed for Mon-Thurs., but they could easily move it to Fridays and not feel bad about renewing it. I'm also really impressed with Parenthood's DVR performance. Could it get another season? NBC hasn't been able to have even a moderately successful show on Thursday nights, in years, so maybe its 1.2 in L+SD isn't necessarily a death knell.

If you want to know anything else, or any other predictions I didn't mention, let me know. I can make full predictions for just about everything else out there probably next week.

I just looked at the TV by the Numbers Bubble Watch, and will give my personal places where I differ (or potentially differ) from the writer (as of right now).

1. He predicts cancellation of The Crazy Ones, The Mentalist, Almost Human, Believe, Parenthood, and Revolution. I believe The Mentalist (unless there is stupid politics in play) and Almost Human (again, unless there is some stupid political b.s. going on here, there is no reason it shouldn't be renewed) are near certain renewals. I think Believe has a better than average chance of being renewed (as of this moment), and that Parenthood and Revolution are absolutely no worse than the bubble for the reasons stated in my post above. I can give a lot of reasons why I think The Crazy Ones will probably be canceled, but I think it's a mistake for it to be considered any worse than the bubble right now (I do think it will be canceled, though, for the record, but I would not be surprised if it is renewed).

2. He somehow has Hannibal on the bubble, which I can't fathom why. Most industry prognosticators probably have it close to certain cancellation. I think it's on the good side of the bubble, but I was probably the only person on the planet predicting renewal last season. So, it's nice to see that, but I couldn't find a reason why he thinks so. I pointed to several reasons why I think it has a chance in the post above. Unlike last year, though, I am less confident in that being enough to get it a renewal (though I think it should be renewed on quality alone).

I think he'll probably be right on all of his renewal predictions.

Community 0.9 and 2.5MM viewers last night. Ouch.

Looks like Scandal has finally dropped from its "must see live" status it's held over the last two seasons. I'm like 5 or 6 behind, which means it's gonna suck to catch up.

Is this probably the last season for Community then?

Greenblatt said a while ago that it was looking good for Community. I believe he wants to renew it because it'll look good for them to give it 'six seasons and a movie' but the numbers don't support that desire. I wouldn't rule out a final season, maybe on fridays, but don't count on it.

I think trying to predict the fates of Community of Parks and Rec is folly as there seems to be more at play than just the numbers. The numbers would say definite cancelation for Community and probable cancelation for Parks but Greenblatt seems to have his own agenda. I think he wants to renew both shows for one final season and keep them together. He already said Parks was going to be renewed but that was just talk that shouldn't be taken as fact. In this business, no information can be taken as fact until it's made official (and even then sometimes studios do u-turns for weird reasons (2 years ago fox uncanceled Breaking In because they wanted to do another show with that show's showrunner)).

In other words, **** knows. I expect we won't find out for sure until the last possible moment when NBC announce their schedule in May.

Hannibal down to a 0.8...

Do the right thing, Netflix!

It pains me to say this, but Hannibal's DVR ratings are still not getting it done. I would not at all be surprised if NBC waits until August to announce its fate (EMMYs hint hint). If it does well there, they'll renew it just for funz and preztige, but if it is shunned again, I think we'll be seeing Hannibal somewhere else next season. Is there a better show for that kind of precedent (a show with extremely poor ratings being picked up by someone else)?

Kate Aurthur ‏@KateAurthur 1m
Nice start for #Fargo and FX: 4.2 million Viewers (with 1.8 million of those in 18-49).

Pretty good, can't wait to watch it, but will have to.

In other news, Hannibal's DVR ratings for whatever week was reported on Monday were actually up a bit (approx. 1.4 in L+3). I'll just keep looking at the data and see if we get a clearer picture about where it's headed on NBC. 1.4 would be pretty close to a renewal guarantee, I think, but it hasn't stabilized in any significant way yet.

Arrested Development.

That's definitely a good example of a show given a long leash by the network (I also think it's a great sitcom parallel to Hannibal's drama for a network loving a show, meaning that they are both precedent setters for ratings), but in today's world, they'd be pretty stoked with the ratings Arrested Development had even in its most poorly rated season. It's really hard to find 18-49 numbers for stuff from that era, but I would assume it was probably pulling in north of a 2.0 (maybe as high as a 2.4 or 2.6) for its early seasons, and it probably was pulling in about a 1.6 or 1.7 in its lower rated seasons (no network other than CBS and maybe ABC depending on the property) would ever cancel a show in that ratings area today, if it had any kind of DVR number (which Arrested Development certainly would have had if that were more prominent then).

These days, shows are getting renewed with positively anemic L+SD ratings, as long as they have significant DVR numbers. FX renewing the poorly rated The Americans sets a huge precedent on cable. We'll see if others follow, but this is probably just related to FXX making FX more lean with programming.

Didn't Southland start on network tv? Pretty sure stargate sg1 started on Showtime its first season.

Yeah, but Southland didn't really have bad ratings (they weren't great, but it would have normally been renewed in that era from what I vaguely seem to remember, and numbers aren't easily available). I seem to remember it being a victim of Jay Leno's ill fated 10pm show. It had its original first short season toward the end of the 2008-2009 season (April-May), and was renewed for the Fall 2009 TV slate. It got its air date pushed, and then ultimately never aired the 6 episodes they had in the can (there's no mention of Leno on its wikipedia page, but that was the year that show happened). TNT bought the rights to the first season's 7 episodes, and also bought the rights to air the 6 completed episodes from the unaired season 2. When TNT had to commit to actual production costs, it slashed the budget, and it got a few more seasons. It never had good ratings on TNT, and by the end the ratings were atrocious.

Stargate was definitely on Showtime before moving to syndication (wikipedia has an interesting read on this, by the way).

Almost Human canceled
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/201...season/259069/

That is so dumb, but that's FOX. We're going to have to come up with a new term, "The Michael Ealy Curse". It will have to do with shows he's on getting canceled that had good enough ratings to get renewed. I actually do wonder how much the cancellation has to do with his movie career. Maybe he has made contract negotiations tough. Who knows?

now i hate myself for not waiting a few seasons before starting the show.

That kinda sucks. I liked that show.

FOX is pure nonsense. How do they explain the renewal of The Mindy Project with those ratings that are guaranteed to be terrible for the next two seasons that they've de facto committed to? The Following has absolutely no metrics that read significantly better than Almost Human. They have multiple shows ending next season, and more slots open. It just makes zero sense outside of politics. 50/50 is just purely laughable as a description of its chances.

I did see in the comments section of that ratings post that apparently Urban was "rooting" for a cancellation since he found 13 episodes of a TV show too grueling to work on, and wanted to go back to movies. Imagine how he'd feel about doing 22. This is as good of an excuse as any (combined with the problems Person of Interest is going to potentially face, as well, and already has) to not let working movie actors be in network TV shows. They're both the draw and often the demise of the shows they're on.

sigh, that's bs

Fox isn't doing pilot season this year so their decisions may seem a little wacky.

Errrrr, what? What are they doing, developing things whenever they appear or just completely giving in?

http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/fox-...-will-it-work/

They're blowing up the system.

I hope it pays off.

Could this mean we are finally headed toward a year around schedule, featuring split seasons, and tons of 13 episode seasons?