what was cydney's path to win if she goes along with the final 7 plan instead of this blindside?

get rid of the brains, get rid of the beauties, sit between the 2 *******s scot and jason at f3, collect every single vote

The only way she gets into the F4 if it's 3 brawn and 4 beauty is if Nick flips, and if Nick flips then she finishes exactly fourth without immunity because the three men are going to the end together. She may still finish fifth or sixth but at least now she's drawing live.

What is her path now? She is a lock to win IC against the women so if she doesn't sweep she is insta voted out by the women.

I disagree that the women will see her that way. She lost endurance tonight to Tai, hasn't been shown to be any good at puzzles (and Aubry and Debbie both have) and late game challenges basically never involve the sort of thing that Cydney is obviously good at. She's not gonna be rolling logs.

also if it's obvious to us that she's setting herself up as the swing vote between michele/julia and debbie/aubry, it's also obvious to them. brain girls can just keep fbi guy around to f6 and vote out cydney and have a 3-2 edge on beauty, and beauty can do the same with tai. cydney has no strong allies anymore.

dunno ive been wrong before and will be wrong plenty more times, but this just feels like a bad move to me.

i'm not sure that it's +ev for cydney, but it wasn't clear that she was in any f3 plans so i don't see how it's clearly -ev. she had been left out of plans and wasn't trusted by jason/scot. she was a floater, and if she wants any chance to win, doesn't she have to actively make something happen?

Quote of the night

"Overconfidence is a weakness"
Debbie

Not sold on the Cydney move.

Thought Michele got a long of solid confessionals again tonight, especially a big one right before tribal

PRE-SEASON PICK HOLD ONE TIME

If Michele can hold on through those HII's the men have I think she'll win.

Yup, was very telling that even though it was Cydney's move it was Michele who got the 'long term move' confessional right before tribal. Gone ahead of the pack now.

Fish thinks Cydney made a good move, Rob doesn't.

Would be quite funny if Tai, Scot and Jason make a complete hash of the super idol in the next vote or two. Oh wait, they already have.

Here's my prediction for the rest of the way:

Girls alliance holds up till 5 girls 2 guys -- 2 remaining guys being kyle and scot... At that point, Michele and Julia decide to team up with them two because they are both very beatable unlikeable buffoons (we've already seen Michele talking with Nick about who's more beatable), and those 4 ride all the way to the final 4. At this point both the girls secretly know they are voting out the other girl, and based on the edit to date ultimately Michele is the girl that survives thru to the final 3, where we have Michele getting every vote but 1, with Tai giving Scot his vote.

You're giving these people way too much credit.


That was a pretty well played walkback by Tai after his Superidol reveal blunder. It makes him seem as out of the loop as others, and distances himself from whatever group is in control (and has control of the idol(s). Also makes it seem like maybe he's wrong about the Superidol and was lied to. Now that I think about it, that was a really well played thing he did.

Does anyone see Tai as a threat at this point? He's pretty well set up to go to at least F5 and at that point he's got an idol and could be a challenge threat depending on the challenge. He then becomes someone everybody likes. He could win this.

I haven't listened to KIA yet, but I'm not entirely sure what Tai was doing last night at tribal. I assume he wasn't part of the 6-person alliance that knew Nick was getting voted out, but why did he cast his vote for Kyle instead of following what he had been told the plan was: i.e. splitting votes on Debbie/Aubry. And even if he did sense something different was going down, it seems strange to throw a vote on Kyle. I wouldn't want that guy coming after me

Btw I'm pretty sure FTC is F2 this season. Everyone keeps assuming it's F3 but the first BvBvB was F2 and at the merge we had 11. 11-2 is 9 jury members which is an odd number. I can't see them having F3 with eight Jury members.

Don't like Cydney's move. Nobody in her new Alliance has any reason to be loyal to her. This all might be a ruse of editing though and she still plans to stick with Jason and Scot...not sure how that's going to work. She did imply in her talk with Julia and Michele that she wanted to get rid of Nick just because he was trying to brown nose Jason and Scot.

I like how so many people think Michele is going to win. Her resume is just agreeing to do what other people's plans are but then in Confessionals she talks about how she needs to make a big move. Amazing player. Do nothing but take credit for making big moves.

Tai's Jason vote is perplexing to say the least. Knowing Tai he didn't like something Jason said at Tribal so just decided to vote for him. Who knows, it's a very odd vote.

funny how, um, ethnic Cydney's speech became when she got all riled up

yeah, they all should see it. seems obvious. tai really had a bad ep. he spills the beans about the super idol, and he won the immunity challenge. then he votes against jason. lol tai.

They've had a F3 with eight jurors before (both in S29 and S30, and I'm probably forgetting more before that). Also, S31 had 10 jurors for a F3. They clearly want a FTC tie...badly. That being said, I do agree that a F2 is likelier this year just because of all of the medevacs.

Regarding Michele, it's really obvious she wins because they keep giving her meaningless content. Last night, Julia seemed to be the one actively pushing for the all-girl flip, and Cydney was at the heart of it, yet Michele got 100% of the "I don't know which way I should go" content. If Michele didn't win, wouldn't they be giving that to Julia or Cydney? Michele is more boring than either of them in her confessionals, so why would they be giving her content if they didn't feel the need to do so? And the only reason they'd feel the need to do so is if she's the winner.

Eight jurors with a F3 doesn't make a tie quite as likely. Do the contestants know before the season that it will be F3 or F2?? IDK, but everyone in the cast seems to be assuming that it will be F3.

Part of my reasoning for why it will be F2 is that we'll end up with two ****ty choices and one has to win. It's might be why Jeff is downplaying this season. Joe & Michele F2. Weeeeee. Awesome.

I agree somewhat with the Michele edit. They do seem to be trying to give her a boost but she's boring and passive and doesn't do ****. She'd be a horrible winner. Bottom five.

nick explained tai's vote in one of his exit interviews

Didn't know if this is considered spoiler material or not but figured better to be safe:

to be fair, that was her first ever tribal council. so she hasn't had a lot of opportunities to "do ****" so far

so for this super idol business, does it have to be combined before tribal?

or can two people just collude and gurantee they wont be voted out and share it?