Sash: He's in a 6-2 majority (if Jane flips), and even if two of Jud/KB/KS flip they're still tied. He seems to get on well with everybody, and is very savvy. His alliance includes Brenda, who's widely perceived as the biggest threat, and he should be well-suited for challenges. Moreover, his influence is not blatantly obvious like Marty's is, meaning that he can sneak UTR to an extent, despite exemplifying all of the qualities that usually label people as a threat. If he can survive his first power struggle with Marty (which I expect to occur the first time La Flor goes to TC) and the first two post-merge TCs (the occasion when players like him have been blindsided in each season since Fiji) he's the favourite IMO.

Brenda: Much of what I said about Sash applies to Brenda; however, even though she's been outed as a target, in many respects her position is better than that of Sash: she's less likely to be viewed as a traditional 'threat' because she's a small female, and she has Chase pussy-whipped into doing whatever she wants. Again, her long-term future depends on her short-term relationship with Marty, who she seems to be reacting negatively to.

Marty: I admit I'm hedging a bit here, since whichever of Marty and Sash/Brenda comes out on top on La Flor is almost certain to go deep in the game. He's alienating a lot of people and playing very aggressively, but he's probably the best strategic mind in the game and he has a HII. Only a fool would discount his chances.

Alina: If she flips to the oldies for the next Espada TC, she becomes the swing vote and can dictate the course of the game in the short term. If KB makes it to the merge and they're both thinking rationally, they'll become a pair of swing votes in a manner similar to Kenny/Crystal in Gabon (well, those two *should* have been swing votes, but they voted out Corinne over Matty for reasons beyond understanding) or a downsized version of Burton/JFP/Lill. Alina seems intelligent, and competing with the strategic prowess of Dan, Holly, and NaOnka shouldn't be a problem. If she makes it to the merge she should be ok.

Jane: La Flor is going to be too focused on alpha-male rivalry to focus on booting poor challenge competitors imo; in addition, challenges nowadays are rarely about pure strength anyway, and the rest of the tribe will recognise this. The young people supermajority will gun for Marty and Jill first, and then probably turn on KB. As far as I can see, Jane is a lock to make the merge, and her confessionals/secret scenes show that she's got a better brain for strategy than most elderly dog trainers.

Editing informs some of these choices: Kelly Shinn, for instance, is in a very good position but the fact that she hasn't said anything for five episodes virtually indicates she's drawing dead. Jud's future also depends on which side he chooses the first time La Flor go to TC; if he flip-flops he could easily end up alienated from his tribemates, and he's not canny enough to find a way out.