Quote:
Originally Posted by cash mahne
lol. Shannon had 5 people including himself. Chase moves over if they pick someone besides Brenda, thats 6 and a win. NO REASON to try to make this big move.
Colby/Steph/Tom/Sugar makes 4 and they still don't win. Colby did pretty good in the game by his finish anyways.
The Villains had it perfect but Tyson messed it up. All big moves early fail, egos get in the way and it is so funny how bad Shannon is at this game.
Brenda's position of power from this point forward is why this episode was a good opportunity to get her out. Is there a reason they wouldn't have been able to get Kelly S. to vote with them?
Using the fact that Colby made the final 5 as an excuse for his inability/refusal to make any strategic moves is results-oriented thinking, and nothing more. Colby only got that far in the first place because he was such a goat (why do you think Rupert made it so far), and would have had to win two consecutive immunity challenges - after being one of the worst challenge performers in the season - in order to make final 3.
The Villains did NOT have it perfect. I'm really tired of this myth that Rob had a flawless plan which was screwed up by Tyson (=> it wasn't flawless ldo). If any of the six members of Rob's alliance had thought about it for one second, or watched Survivor Fiji at any point (and hence realising that the situation in the Tyson boot episode was IDENTICAL to the situation in the Edgardo boot episode), they might have been able to devise a better plan. If you're the leader of a majority of six against a three-person minority with an idol, and you suspect that - whether by scheming or by incompetence - one of your alliance members is going to flip, you have two options:
A: Split the votes 3-3 (against either #1 most likely to have the idol and #3, or #2 and #3; probably the latter), with you and your two most trusted alliance members voting for person X and the three least trustworthy voting for person Y. The traitor flips and tells the minority alliance that they were assigned to vote for Y, and that their switching means that there are now only two votes on Y. X plans to use the idol, but you and another member of your alliance switch your vote to Y, resulting in a 4-4-1 tie. You then eliminate the person of your choice on the revote.
B: Tell the suspected traitor that you're voting for person X (#2 in the alliance) and then put five votes on Y (#3). You can trick the person that you think is next most likely to flip in the same way, at the risk of alienating them.
Applying this logic to the situation, Rob could have done one of two things:
A: Split the votes Rob/Tyson/Coach on one of Russ/Parv/Danielle (Parv/Danielle split is probably most likely to work), and Sandra/Courtney/Jerri on another (I'm assuming they do this since Rob has no reason to believe Tyson will 'flip'; that makes this more risky than option B). S/Cou/J supposedly switches, Rob and Tyson flip to eliminate their chosen target.
This is an extension of the optimal strategy for a 6-2 majority against an idol with one traitor, which should have seen play during the Cirie boot (I can go into this in more detail if need be); at 6-3, however, it can so easily be FPS that it's worth going with:
B: Put 5 votes on Danielle (least likely to have the idol), with the sixth vote either going for Danielle (if you're 100% sure there's no traitor and can't figure out who it is) as well or on Russ/Parv. Danielle gets Edgardo'd and gallops into the sunset.
Admittedly Rob's position was made more difficult by the fact that his alliance contained a pair of two-person suballiances (Sandra + Courtney, Jerri + Coach), both of which potentially could have flipped). However, even if he is willing to stake his game on the fact that his clique is solid, he should at least have considered going all-in on Danielle, which is much more +EV than blindly putting your hopes in a split-vote strategy. The fact that he considered none of these options means he got what he deserved imo.
People often fail dramatically at making big moves. This does not mean that making a big move is objectively the wrong decision.
cliffs: I'm incoherent, Boston Rob is overrated
Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
i havent seen benry say anything. im surprised about that
I can't remember that specifically, but it's probably in the clip on CBS.com (they have the voting confessionals uploaded in one video)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
I know I've been on this rant before, but am I the only one that thinks that vote-changing occurs AT tribal almost.........never...
I can think of more examples if you want, but one is Danielle in HvV (her boot was likely beforehand but her outburst at tribal confirmed it). It seemed to me that TC was like this:
Sash: (voting brenda yo)
Shannon: ygos?
Sash: lolwat? gtfo plz
Kelly B: shannon's gone ldo, don't wanna get murdered in sleep by asian hobbit => switching vote, sorry LOLina