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Old 09-23-2010, 08:04 PM   #926
dukemagic
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
I think Espada made the right move by using the Medallion of Power at the immunity/reward challenge. Had they lost that, they'd be in the hole by two on numbers right off the bat, plus La Flor would've received a tarp.

Initially, I was hesitant about their choice of fishing gear over the tarp, but apparently Jimmy T. is a fisherman by profession! That caught me a bit off guard.
i think both of those are definitely the right choice. it was a huge advantage, the challenge was combined reward/immunity, and the reward was a good one. plus, as you mentioned they would be two down.

i think the fishing gear (food) is more important than the tarp (improved comfort/sleep) and i think this is validated by the choice they made, i'd have to assume that the people actually living there would know which is more important for them.
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Old 09-23-2010, 08:13 PM   #927
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Jill's blatant reveal of the final piece of the immunity idol clue to Marty/Dan was a bit puzzling at first, but I imagine it must've made more sense if you were there. I gather she wanted him to go get it quickly, as everyone was search for it at the same time. A few minutes of "Where's Marty?" and "He's over there, let's go dig next to him" might've let the cat out of the bag.

It does go to show that she must have a somewhat tight bond with Marty, at least.
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Old 09-23-2010, 08:17 PM   #928
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
Jill's blatant reveal of the final piece of the immunity idol clue to Marty/Dan was a bit puzzling at first, but I imagine it must've made more sense if you were there. I gather she wanted him to go get it quickly, as everyone was search for it at the same time. A few minutes of "Where's Marty?" and "He's over there, let's go dig next to him" might've let the cat out of the bag.

It does go to show that she must have a somewhat tight bond with Marty, at least.
This makes sense, Jill and Marty seem like the top of the alliance. Jill might just be another vote and would be easy to get rid of if needed or an easy loss in FTC as long as Marty isn't a douche.
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Old 09-23-2010, 08:21 PM   #929
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Brenda seems to be in a great spot. She has Chase as a scapegoat and seems to only be against Alina, Fabio, and maybe KB.

Marty obviously is in no danger to get voted out. He is almost a lock for the merge and with an idol and a free vote in Jill he has to be the favorite.
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Old 09-23-2010, 08:48 PM   #930
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Originally they had Alina, Kelly B., Shannon, Benry and Jud. If we assume Chase doesn't flip, that leaves Sash, Kelly S. and NaOnka. Sash and NaOnka want to preserve the racist ban alliance (although we're shown footage of Sash trying to convince Chase to boot Brenda, so...); that leaves Kelly S., whom I imagine they could flip if they wanted? I'm not sure why they didn't try; perhaps there's something I'm missing. Ultimately, if Shannon doesn't self-destruct at TC, Brenda probably goes home.

I don't think Alina and Kelly B. want to 'have the numbers' (i.e. be part of a majority alliance) at this point. They're operating well as floaters and they'd want to keep it that way, since it makes them less likely to get targetted. I think if Alina survives the next La Flor TC, she's a lock to make the merge; ditto for Kelly B.
I know I've been on this rant before, but am I the only one that thinks that vote-changing occurs AT tribal almost.........never...
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:00 PM   #931
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I have a feeling that Chase was able to flip Benry to his and Brenda's side with Kelly Leg following along. During tribal Chase said that he trusted Brenda and Benry, plus Benry made it clear he didn't trust shannon anymore either. So Shannon's blow up was more of a hail mary/screw you all effort. But taking that and editing into consideration the guy is still a joke.

I like how his parents couldn't agree on a name so just slammed 2 of their first choices together with Benry.
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:01 PM   #932
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by ArcticKnight View Post
I know I've been on this rant before, but am I the only one that thinks that vote-changing occurs AT tribal almost.........never...
When Benry voted he said (with little to no reason to lie) that he switched his vote at tribal.
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:10 PM   #933
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

i havent seen benry say anything. im surprised about that
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:15 PM   #934
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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i havent seen benry say anything. im surprised about that
Yeah he seems like a boring dude. The CBS video of the voting shows what he said.
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:33 PM   #935
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by cash mahne View Post
lol. Shannon had 5 people including himself. Chase moves over if they pick someone besides Brenda, thats 6 and a win. NO REASON to try to make this big move.

Colby/Steph/Tom/Sugar makes 4 and they still don't win. Colby did pretty good in the game by his finish anyways.

The Villains had it perfect but Tyson messed it up. All big moves early fail, egos get in the way and it is so funny how bad Shannon is at this game.
Brenda's position of power from this point forward is why this episode was a good opportunity to get her out. Is there a reason they wouldn't have been able to get Kelly S. to vote with them?

Using the fact that Colby made the final 5 as an excuse for his inability/refusal to make any strategic moves is results-oriented thinking, and nothing more. Colby only got that far in the first place because he was such a goat (why do you think Rupert made it so far), and would have had to win two consecutive immunity challenges - after being one of the worst challenge performers in the season - in order to make final 3.

The Villains did NOT have it perfect. I'm really tired of this myth that Rob had a flawless plan which was screwed up by Tyson (=> it wasn't flawless ldo). If any of the six members of Rob's alliance had thought about it for one second, or watched Survivor Fiji at any point (and hence realising that the situation in the Tyson boot episode was IDENTICAL to the situation in the Edgardo boot episode), they might have been able to devise a better plan. If you're the leader of a majority of six against a three-person minority with an idol, and you suspect that - whether by scheming or by incompetence - one of your alliance members is going to flip, you have two options:

A: Split the votes 3-3 (against either #1 most likely to have the idol and #3, or #2 and #3; probably the latter), with you and your two most trusted alliance members voting for person X and the three least trustworthy voting for person Y. The traitor flips and tells the minority alliance that they were assigned to vote for Y, and that their switching means that there are now only two votes on Y. X plans to use the idol, but you and another member of your alliance switch your vote to Y, resulting in a 4-4-1 tie. You then eliminate the person of your choice on the revote.

B: Tell the suspected traitor that you're voting for person X (#2 in the alliance) and then put five votes on Y (#3). You can trick the person that you think is next most likely to flip in the same way, at the risk of alienating them.

Applying this logic to the situation, Rob could have done one of two things:

A: Split the votes Rob/Tyson/Coach on one of Russ/Parv/Danielle (Parv/Danielle split is probably most likely to work), and Sandra/Courtney/Jerri on another (I'm assuming they do this since Rob has no reason to believe Tyson will 'flip'; that makes this more risky than option B). S/Cou/J supposedly switches, Rob and Tyson flip to eliminate their chosen target.

This is an extension of the optimal strategy for a 6-2 majority against an idol with one traitor, which should have seen play during the Cirie boot (I can go into this in more detail if need be); at 6-3, however, it can so easily be FPS that it's worth going with:

B: Put 5 votes on Danielle (least likely to have the idol), with the sixth vote either going for Danielle (if you're 100% sure there's no traitor and can't figure out who it is) as well or on Russ/Parv. Danielle gets Edgardo'd and gallops into the sunset.

Admittedly Rob's position was made more difficult by the fact that his alliance contained a pair of two-person suballiances (Sandra + Courtney, Jerri + Coach), both of which potentially could have flipped). However, even if he is willing to stake his game on the fact that his clique is solid, he should at least have considered going all-in on Danielle, which is much more +EV than blindly putting your hopes in a split-vote strategy. The fact that he considered none of these options means he got what he deserved imo.

People often fail dramatically at making big moves. This does not mean that making a big move is objectively the wrong decision.

cliffs: I'm incoherent, Boston Rob is overrated

Quote:
Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield
i havent seen benry say anything. im surprised about that
I can't remember that specifically, but it's probably in the clip on CBS.com (they have the voting confessionals uploaded in one video)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
I know I've been on this rant before, but am I the only one that thinks that vote-changing occurs AT tribal almost.........never...
I can think of more examples if you want, but one is Danielle in HvV (her boot was likely beforehand but her outburst at tribal confirmed it). It seemed to me that TC was like this:

Sash: (voting brenda yo)
Shannon: ygos?
Sash: lolwat? gtfo plz
Kelly B: shannon's gone ldo, don't wanna get murdered in sleep by asian hobbit => switching vote, sorry LOLina
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:47 PM   #936
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by SavageTilt View Post
Brenda's position of power from this point forward is why this episode was a good opportunity to get her out. Is there a reason they wouldn't have been able to get Kelly S. to vote with them?

Using the fact that Colby made the final 5 as an excuse for his inability/refusal to make any strategic moves is results-oriented thinking, and nothing more. Colby only got that far in the first place because he was such a goat (why do you think Rupert made it so far), and would have had to win two consecutive immunity challenges - after being one of the worst challenge performers in the season - in order to make final 3.

The Villains did NOT have it perfect. I'm really tired of this myth that Rob had a flawless plan which was screwed up by Tyson (=> it wasn't flawless ldo). If any of the six members of Rob's alliance had thought about it for one second, or watched Survivor Fiji at any point (and hence realising that the situation in the Tyson boot episode was IDENTICAL to the situation in the Edgardo boot episode), they might have been able to devise a better plan. If you're the leader of a majority of six against a three-person minority with an idol, and you suspect that - whether by scheming or by incompetence - one of your alliance members is going to flip, you have two options:

A: Split the votes 3-3 (against either #1 most likely to have the idol and #3, or #2 and #3; probably the latter), with you and your two most trusted alliance members voting for person X and the three least trustworthy voting for person Y. The traitor flips and tells the minority alliance that they were assigned to vote for Y, and that their switching means that there are now only two votes on Y. X plans to use the idol, but you and another member of your alliance switch your vote to Y, resulting in a 4-4-1 tie. You then eliminate the person of your choice on the revote.

B: Tell the suspected traitor that you're voting for person X (#2 in the alliance) and then put five votes on Y (#3). You can trick the person that you think is next most likely to flip in the same way, at the risk of alienating them.

Applying this logic to the situation, Rob could have done one of two things:

A: Split the votes Rob/Tyson/Coach on one of Russ/Parv/Danielle (Parv/Danielle split is probably most likely to work), and Sandra/Courtney/Jerri on another (I'm assuming they do this since Rob has no reason to believe Tyson will 'flip'; that makes this more risky than option B). S/Cou/J supposedly switches, Rob and Tyson flip to eliminate their chosen target.

This is an extension of the optimal strategy for a 6-2 majority against an idol with one traitor, which should have seen play during the Cirie boot (I can go into this in more detail if need be); at 6-3, however, it can so easily be FPS that it's worth going with:

B: Put 5 votes on Danielle (least likely to have the idol), with the sixth vote either going for Danielle (if you're 100% sure there's no traitor and can't figure out who it is) as well or on Russ/Parv. Danielle gets Edgardo'd and gallops into the sunset.

Admittedly Rob's position was made more difficult by the fact that his alliance contained a pair of two-person suballiances (Sandra + Courtney, Jerri + Coach), both of which potentially could have flipped). However, even if he is willing to stake his game on the fact that his clique is solid, he should at least have considered going all-in on Danielle, which is much more +EV than blindly putting your hopes in a split-vote strategy. The fact that he considered none of these options means he got what he deserved imo.

People often fail dramatically at making big moves. This does not mean that making a big move is objectively the wrong decision.

cliffs: I'm incoherent, Boston Rob is overrated



I can't remember that specifically, but it's probably in the clip on CBS.com (they have the voting confessionals uploaded in one video)



I can think of more examples if you want, but one is Danielle in HvV (her boot was likely beforehand but her outburst at tribal confirmed it). It seemed to me that TC was like this:

Sash: (voting brenda yo)
Shannon: ygos?
Sash: lolwat? gtfo plz
Kelly B: shannon's gone ldo, don't wanna get murdered in sleep by asian hobbit => switching vote, sorry LOLina
yea but wrt. tyson's boot episode, what ur suggesting about voting for danielle is exactly what happened later on. except instead of being danielle, it was jerri, when the heroes put 5 votes on jerri they thought there's no way in hell she's getting an idol.

bottom line is parvati is the master of out-levelling anyone. she is always a step ahead. also, i hope she makes porn one day
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Old 09-23-2010, 09:59 PM   #937
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

Haha nobody said anything about the stupid challenge entrance from the younger trible marching in?

Also pretty good season sofar Was looking forward to a 'normal' season and am happy with the results sofar!
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Old 09-23-2010, 10:21 PM   #938
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Originally Posted by langer_rol View Post
yea but wrt. tyson's boot episode, what ur suggesting about voting for danielle is exactly what happened later on. except instead of being danielle, it was jerri, when the heroes put 5 votes on jerri they thought there's no way in hell she's getting an idol.

bottom line is parvati is the master of out-levelling anyone. she is always a step ahead. also, i hope she makes porn one day
What I said isn't really applicable in that situation (5 v. 5, both sides containing people in a position to flip), but it's true for pre-merge and early post-merge (when those scenarios are likely to come up).

Second paragraph is 100% true though, <3 Parv
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Old 09-23-2010, 11:00 PM   #939
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

One of my major points which seems to be continually getting ignored (by some) is that voting out Nayany actually makes it easier to get rid of Brenda next time because now Brenda does not have Naynay's vote. ALSO, if we don't fire the warning shot at Brenda, she doesn't really have a particular reason to be throwing in her lot with Naynay and Sash in the racistban alliance. Instead, she is thinking, "Cool, we are getting rid of Naynay this week. That girl get's on everyone's last nerve. I'm feeling happy and comfortable with Chase in my pocket and someone else in the crosshairs." (Also, as part of this plan, Kelly Oneleg and Alina faux-buddy up with Brenda when discussing how they need to get rid of dissention in the tribe by axing Naynay.) Then, Brenda is not feeling alienated because no one talked strat with her leading into the TC.

I can forgive the mistake because perhaps it was too early to tell that getting the votes for Brenda was not going to be easy. Maybe Alina and Kelly Oneleg had no idea that they would need Chase's vote so badly. But if they knew they would have to count on his vote...******ed. I mean while settling on targeting Brenda, they acknowledged the need to break up Chase and Brenda. So, you go to him asking him to vote her out?
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Old 09-23-2010, 11:17 PM   #940
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

some quality tyrone gifs over at sucks

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Old 09-23-2010, 11:27 PM   #941
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

I like the Grey's decision to use the MOP because the advantage was so advantageous, and there was a reward in play as well. I could have lived with a decision to NOT use the MOP if their thinking was let's freeroll this one and get rid of the crazy shoe drowning lady if we happen to lose. If they were worried she was so flaky that she might drop out on her own, leaving them a man down anyway, giving up the power would have been pretty devastating.

Aside: Holly totally could have kept quiet about drowning the shoes and let everyone try to figure out if it was her or Jimmy T (or someone who did it on purpose (to stir up the tribe) and not simply because he/she is unbalanced). Am I wrong?

What do we think of her quote, "This game is making me into something I'm not."? I believe that people play Surivor for the most part within the parameters of how they live life. And it's a little early to be claiming sleep-food deprivation caused me to go crazy. Chick was passive-aggressive and did something crazy to lash out. Then, guilt ridden. I'd bet it all fits within her personality. Am I wrong?
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Old 09-23-2010, 11:43 PM   #942
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

she's obv crazy (and dumb for confessing), you are what you do whether you like it or not

the anti naonka racism at survivor sucks is pretty funny but i can't get on board the 'she's ugly' train, tbh i think she's pretty good looking (dat ass ldo)
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Old 09-23-2010, 11:52 PM   #943
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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What do we think of her quote, "This game is making me into something I'm not."? I believe that people play Surivor for the most part within the parameters of how they live life. And it's a little early to be claiming sleep-food deprivation caused me to go crazy. Chick was passive-aggressive and did something crazy to lash out. Then, guilt ridden. I'd bet it all fits within her personality. Am I wrong?
I agree with every last thing you said here.
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Old 09-24-2010, 12:10 AM   #944
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

bitches be crazy yo
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Old 09-24-2010, 12:32 AM   #945
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

A few comments on extra scenes:

Jimmy T nurtures the soul and is extremely agile.

Role model to swim team says, "Drown shoes, but don't quit."

Fabio is lamenting that the kids who are barely out of high school are acting like they are in high school.

The other Kelly kinda reminds me of Natalie. Nice, non-threatening, could really use some devious troll to tote her to the end with him.

Odds on Chase quitting this game?

Shannon adding 25 years to his life because he has been married for 11. But he has learned patience. He should play poker. He's got the "these stupid donkeys keep lucking out" "I'm surrounded by idiots" speeches down pat!

LOL at Fabio trying to outwit the pen at TC.

Oooo, Chase with an 'excellent' read on who he can trust. Siren or guy who has similar interests in the game. I like his thinking there.

FWIW, Sash did seem kind of gay when he was casting his vote. Also, he mentioned with pride their little 'march' or 'dance routine' used to intimidate Espada. Yes, dance routines are very intimidating. You got served, Espada.

Shannon is not terribly likable. A hothead. BUT, I do believe he was playing the game very straight forwardly with the people he alligned with. Chase, the complete opposite. Likable. Remained pretty calm even with Shannon applying heat on him at TC. Agreed to two alliances, then picked the more attractive handler, and stabbed his original alliance in the back. ALL, while painting Shannon as the guy nobody could trust. Brenda is a pretty good picker, I think.
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Old 09-24-2010, 12:43 AM   #946
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Odds on Chase quitting this game?
Why does anyone quit the game? You don't actually get to go straight home they send you to loser lounge or whatever they call it with the pre-jury cast who got booted from the game. Then they are sent to a nice location to party until the rest of the game plays out.
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Old 09-24-2010, 12:47 AM   #947
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

are those extra clips uploaded anywhere else? cbs blocks them for foreigners
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Old 09-24-2010, 01:18 AM   #948
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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are those extra clips uploaded anywhere else? cbs blocks them for foreigners
Have you checked youtube?
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Old 09-24-2010, 01:32 AM   #949
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

i have but cbs' yt is blocked too. i found a few clips but they had been removed
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Old 09-24-2010, 01:36 AM   #950
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Re: Survivor: Nicaragua

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Why does anyone quit the game? You don't actually get to go straight home they send you to loser lounge or whatever they call it with the pre-jury cast who got booted from the game. Then they are sent to a nice location to party until the rest of the game plays out.
Because they can't handle it. Whether its the lack of food (they feed you in the loser lounge). Lack of sleep (loser lounge has a bed). Or they can't handle the scheming and mental pressure (some of these who are voted out actually continue to lie once they are out of the game and what they say doesn't even matter any more).
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