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Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST)

11-12-2022 , 12:29 PM
I expect next week to be incredible.

In Amy's first appearance, if the FJ category had been different, we might be calling Andrew a Super Champ and I assume we'd have had Amy in 2nd chance.

And don't count out "undefeated" Sam.
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11-13-2022 , 10:09 AM
Wouldn't mind seeing Sam having a shot at a regular season run.
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11-14-2022 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Wouldn't mind seeing Sam having a shot at a regular season run.
Not too likely to ever happen, though I feel that the table is being set quite nicely for an Ultimate ToC II in the next few years. Basically all 5-game winners or ToC players since the last one (season 21, we're on 39 now)... sounds pretty good to me.
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11-14-2022 , 06:15 PM
Tourney grinder. Never played cash in his life
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11-14-2022 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds
Tourney grinder. Never played cash in his life
Nice!
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11-14-2022 , 08:58 PM
Sam seems to know everything about geography and he bets a 0?
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11-14-2022 , 09:45 PM
A really good lineup. Sam’s got the buzzer advantage a bit over Amy. Andrew’s superior and fearless wagering far exceeds the other two. He’s also most willing to hunt for the DDs. If he catches them he’s going to be hard to beat. If he doesn’t, really seems like a pick ‘em.
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11-14-2022 , 09:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds
Sam seems to know everything about geography and he bets a 0?

Seemed reasonable given the chance it gives him to win a triple stumper, and getting it right and stumping the other two.

Don’t think you’re going to expect a wagering mistake or some serious next level strategy from the others.
Idiotic Jeopardy wagers (no spoilers before 6 EST) Quote
11-14-2022 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King~of~Diamonds
Sam seems to know everything about geography and he bets a 0?
Betting 0 doesn't accomplish anything here, that bet is clearly not optimal. He also shouldn't bet really big though, because he doesn't win anyway unless Andrew misses and Sam wants to maximize his chances of winning in case Andrew does miss. My initial thought was that he should bet between 2600 and 3600 to win if he's right, Andrew is wrong and Amy stays pat. That way he also wins a triple stumper if Amy bets big. I might have to recheck the numbers though.

Curious to see if Amy and Sam are going to adjust their strategy and be even more aggressive on the buzzer because a couple wrong answers might be better than giving Andrew the chance to find daily doubles. That said, finding 2/3 DDs with 22% first in on buzzer qualifies as "lucky".
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11-14-2022 , 10:22 PM
I wonder what his strategy would've been had he converted the DD. I think he would've had a small lead (?) going into FJ.

I was looking around the other day to see if I could find odds, didn't see anything. It's got to be Andrew, with Amy and Sam trailing, right?
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11-14-2022 , 11:59 PM
Id lean more toward parity after one game but he clearly has a slight edge. He played very well last round as well. He’s going to be playing with confidence and aggression. It seems like he has really put a lot of work in in prep. And young people > old people every time.

It’s amazing to see Andrew get a shot at Amy given their history and Amy’s success. Great stuff
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11-15-2022 , 10:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by golddog

I was looking around the other day to see if I could find odds, didn't see anything. It's got to be Andrew, with Amy and Sam trailing, right?
Unless there's a huge discrepancy in skill, the game 1 winner has to be the favorite ahead of game two in that format.

Overall handicapping is pretty hard because we don't have any sample of them playing each other and no idea if Amy/Sam want to (or even could) counter Andrew's style. He's also exposing the not-so-good-for-TV flaw of the format that makes it optimal to stop ringing in once you have a big lead.
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11-16-2022 , 09:05 PM
it would be hard to find odds on an event that was recorded weeks ago . there's a lot of people who already know who won
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11-16-2022 , 09:35 PM
Lots of drama online about today's FJ answer being incorrect or at least highly disputed. I wonder how they resolved that
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11-17-2022 , 04:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domda
it would be hard to find odds on an event that was recorded weeks ago . there's a lot of people who already know who won
I remember they did it for Survivor one year but limited your wager to $500. Easy for someone who knows the result to get different people to place a lot of bets.
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11-17-2022 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Lots of drama online about today's FJ answer being incorrect or at least highly disputed. I wonder how they resolved that
Terrible question. New Testament scholars are debating how they would have answered. Could have maybe fixed it by saying something about Paul's traditionally attributed letter to them....". But even that isn't straightforward
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11-18-2022 , 10:51 PM
I thought for sure tonight was the last TOC episode. TiVo had Monday as the resumption of the season.

Great final though. All 3 are strong. Is this the best final 3 ever?
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11-19-2022 , 10:37 AM
Interesting FJ wagering.

Game 4 Sam bets enough to still cover a double up by Andrew and still win WWR if Amy bets to cover a double up by Sam. Amy figures it out and bets to cover Sam just betting to cover Andrew.

Game 5: Amy assumes Sam will wager similarly but misses the fact that a similar wager bt Sam won't beat Andrew on WWR. Sam understands the big picture and shoves.

Also the outside possibility that Sam wagered in anticipation of a gimme FJ in light of 2 straight brain busters.

Great tournament so far.

Happiest person an the stage at the end was Andrew.
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11-19-2022 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wetleg
Great final though. All 3 are strong. Is this the best final 3 ever?
What metric would you use to determine that?

An easy comparison would be the final 3 of the last ToC:
Amy = James super champion
Andrew = Emma (almost) beat super champion
Sam = Francois qualified as professor / teacher tournament champ

If your metric is "overall strength" you could easily argue that James is so far ahead of Amy that even if you assume Andrew > Emma and Sam > Francois that wouldn't make up for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
Interesting FJ wagering.
Amy basically just wagers to shut Andrew out. You can debate if that's the right strategy or not.

I have a strong suspicion about what's going to happen based on the episode with the butchered FJ.
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11-19-2022 , 11:25 AM
Amy basically just wagers to shut Andrew out. You can debate if that's the right strategy or not.

I have a strong suspicion about what's going to happen based on the episode with the butchered FJ.[/QUOTE]

I think Sam's biggest strength is wagering strategy, considering that he teaches in a postgraduate military program, he's probably spent much of his life studying complex military strategies.
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11-19-2022 , 01:26 PM
Amy and Sam have now started double hunting more than the first two games semi neutralizing Andrew’s advantage.

Sam dug a hole but it’s really been mostly an evenly matched final. Certainly the most entertaining final 3 to watch for me.
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11-21-2022 , 08:59 PM
So the guy that wagers everything everytime only wagers $2801? Rigged
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11-21-2022 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hair loss at 19_
So the guy that wagers everything everytime only wagers $2801? Rigged
Andrew never wagered everything in Final Jeopardy in any of the 8 ToC games he played in.

In fact he only made it out of the opening round of the ToC because he wagered small from second position and advanced on a triple stumper.
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11-21-2022 , 10:03 PM
I guess trans lives really do matter
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11-23-2022 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh



I think Sam's biggest strength is wagering strategy, considering that he teaches in a postgraduate military program, he's probably spent much of his life studying complex military strategies.
You don't need complex military strategies for jeopardy wagering.
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