Meh, ritchie was due 2 get lit up @ some point.

over/under 50k? doesnt the rogers centre only hold 50k?

****, the one time I say **** it Richmond is underrated I'm going to bet on my own team and put a lot on the Jays, Richmond goes up and gives up 5 in the 2nd.

1-2-3 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th

I THOUGHT YOU WERE CLUTCH MILLAR!

what the **** Downs

clearly the ghost of the beej haunting scott downs.

BJ Downs ugggh? had a near heart attack. Also wtf Cito at asking Overbay to bunt, plus he should have pinch hit for Millar yesterday with the bases juiced

Downs is human after all

Had a bet on the Jays, if they lost that I would have went on tilt

Catching the Jays-White Sox game next Sunday...20-person party bus departing from the Hammer, gonna be prime.

Do you go to Mac?

The Jays will win the AL East. Better believe it. Taking bets at 3-1.

I wonder if there are people who make a living on this forum taking bets @ odds like these and then going to another site and betting the opposite @ 4-1 or whatever

As a Red Sox fan, I was still able to root for the Rays for most of 2008. But, obviously not in the ALCS.

This year, I wouldn't mind seeing two AL East teams make the playoffs again as long as it's the Sox and Blue Jays.

This soft schedule stuff is interesting. So, the Jays have had lots of games against the "soft" AL Central and West - they are 18-12. The Rays record against the soft opponents is 4-9, and the Red Sox is 7-6. So much for that argument.

The fact is that it is early in the season, and we need to check back in 30 games or so. In my opinion the Yankees are not going to be better than the Jays this year, and I think the were not better than the Jays last here in most metrics. If the Jays play the Yankees even, it will come down to how competitive they are against the Rays and Red Sox, and they must also avoid losing series to very weak teams in the central and west, which has been one of their downfalls.

Also, I know have everyone has been talking about how the Jays can't keep these numbers up, but look at their 3rd and 4th hitters, Rios and Wells are not putting up the numbers you would expect at these spots in the order. Also, the band-aid starting rotation may actually be soldifiying to a spot where Jesse Litsch will be on the ouside looking in (which is where he should be, IMO). Halliday, Romero, Tallet, Richmond, Jansen, Listch, Cecil etc.... I'm sure we'll find a solid enough 5 out of this crew.


the Jays will be deep enough, and they have a solid middle (Frasor, Carlson) and set up relief unit. Downs is TDB, I guess, but anything is better than BJ.

In fairness, Millar and Bautista can't keep the same torrid pace against lefties, and Synder is showing some holes here and there. Lind will regress and so will Hill.

That said, I think they'll be better than the Yankees, and even the Rays. 1st or WC is not unrealistic, even with the expected overall hitting decline.

PS. In the Red Sox sites they are saying......but we have not played the Jays yet, so It goes both ways.

Good luck tomorrow Cec. The A's are more disciplined at the plate than the Injuns, so there may not be as many K's.

Wat? You're making a huge assumption in that every team except the Jays didn't get better since the offseason. Comparing the 08 Jays vs 08 Royals to 09 Jays vs 09 Royals is completely meaningless. Obviously we have done worse against the Royals (dropped 3 of 4) this year because their team is vastly different (and better duh) from last year's.

Better sign for Tuesdays game?

Combine the letters AJB into a sign that says 'get a job'

Or

GIVES S

You guys are simply making homer arguments to explain the Jays running good. The team particularly the offense is far better than could have been expected and easily could play meaningful games in September. However teams have hot 30-40 game stretches all the time, the difference between hot and cold is few close games. I am excited for the Jays as much as everyone else but we play in a very difficult division and it will be tough to win it or make the playoffs.

This is exactly how any projection system works.

Most of them find a bunch of factors from X years ago that best predicted results X-1 or X-2 years ago. This wins projection system was one where the guy randomnly picked some stuff which tends to have some success because it uses the assumption that a team will more or less finish where it did last year.

They don't take random factors, they take factors that have historically had the most success. They use tons of data and find what significantly correlates with win loss record.

PECOTA is likely undervaluing the Jays, however their current record is probably not a great predictor either and it is somewhere in the middle.

edit: http://resultsdisoriented.blogspot.c...recasting.html

and the Yanks are 10-5 against AL non-east opponents, and even the O's are 7-7. what's your point? tampa won't be a .308 W% team outside of the AL east, i think you know that, and the red sox will be better than 7-6. you give these teams 30 games against the central and the east and they'll win like the jays are winning now. the west, and to a lesser extent the central, is soft.

guys like hill, lind, and scutaro won't continue to hit at their current clips while wells and rios find their stroke so it's not like there's room for nothing but improvement. i know you recognized that too, but they're not going to meet at some happy .300 medium. teixeira isn't going to hit .196/.341/.412 either... but I guess until he gets things going, Damon's going to continue to slug .602, right?

Part of the reason I am becoming more hopeful is that this is more than a 30-40 game strech. Take today's date, go back 162 games. and how do the Jays fare then? They may have the best record in the AL.

I'm not saying they are going to romp the AL east, but our sample size should indicate that there is more underlying this than a hot start. Also, the RS /RA differential for the Jays last year was very large, and they never got the expected wins they should have. I believe projections show they should have finished 2nd in the AL east and 3rd or 4th overall.

So, we have a team that got several less wins than the should have last year, and pehaps 2 wins more than they should so far this year, and still has a great actual record over the last 162 games.

Good outing by Cecil again, I think hes done after 7ip.

God I'm so sick of hearing about the resurgent Blue Jays who haven't played anyone relevant yet. We'll see what happens this week when they actually have to start playing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Devil Rays.