thx... weird that I thought it was rarer than that. And yes, dubious company indeed.

+122 at pinny.

using recent market prices as a guage of 'actual' probabilites, if season were to end today:

nyj @ hou is like 50/50

pitt @ denver is pitt 60%

team we most likely to end up facing is pitt at home, with NYJ being second likely. of course there are a ton of variables but just for an idea.

worst case scenario NE hosts pitt and the line i think would be -6.5, MAYBE 7 after this week but 6.5 seems safe. that equates to a 72% expected win % for new england.

best case is we draw Denver and are something like -11 or so..which is 87%

vs the jets we probably going to be -8 which is 79%

using quick 3/2/1 weighting of likelihood and we get about 76% chance of making the AFCC game.

at this point to make it simple i am going to assume we draw either Pitt or Bal at home which i think is about the same and assign 72% to win that game..

.72*.76 = 54% chance of winning the AFC...its actually probably higher due to the chances of a weaker team getting lucky in BAL.

of course this is *if* the playoffs started today. since thats not the case and NE can lose the #1 seed then +122 sounds about right to me.

FO has them at 42.4% which is +135 but FO has Pitt as the better team, while the betting market disagrees. I assume the betting market is sharper, but FO definitely has a clue as to whats going on...so again +122 sounds just about right, maybe a little bit of value.


i dont know why i typed all this, i get started on something and cant stop.

good stuff like usual in this weeks Belichick Breakdown:

linkydinkydoo

These are always entertaining. Getting to pay attention to Gronk blocking for the Hernandez run out of the backfield and the work Mankins did to open up the lane for the Woodhead TD are things you rarely pick up watching the game. Makes you appreciate a lot of unheralded work.

Herm Edwards (of all people!) just made a great point. This offense constantly building two-possession leads, helps to make the defense's job easier. I hadn't considered that, and hadn't heard anyone else mention it.

Anybody else think Lyndsay Petruny is a funny name? I lol every time, it makes me think of Rudy Kazoody.

law firm has 3 fumbles in ~1500 pro and college carries (zero official NFL but lol sample size). quick google shows that the NFL fumble rate in 2007 was 1.11 per 100....that fumble rate was falling year by year so it might be lower now, but its obvious the guy has iron-clad hands.

pretty manly hand shake by BB at the end there.

its basically the manning blueprint....pretty sure it gets talked about by 'pundits' on a somewhat regular basis.

So with the Texans loss last night we can clinch a bye tomorrow with a win against the Dolphins.

no complaints about the D yet?

Nah they will just blame it on the O for not moving the ball. The D is playing just as BB planned it.

no its the same, the whole team came out flat, but are looking better in the 2nd half after a BB tongue lashing.

Defense has to get a lot of credit today.

Wow what a 2nd half performance! Locked up the 2nd seed at least.

Yeah that was a great 2nd half. And the D really got them back in it with the fumble recovery and some good stops.

McCourty though - wow. That was a highlight reel of what not to do at corner all game.

Expected to see 4 to 5 posts by bgeclipper bashing everything Patriots after that first half lol

I still don't understand how McCourty regressed so badly this season.

Injuries + playing alongside terrible safeties

first one is highly probable, second one is definite.....a decent amount of the time he looks horrid he is lacking over the top help.

plus hes prob not as good as we thought, since well we thought he was elite.

great team win, but that pass interference on mccourty was one of the worst plays i have ever seen in my life. That cost the D 7 points shouldnt of been as close as it was.

I agree that Mccorty should never have touched him but when he did the ball was right above the receiver so it should have either been uncatchable or a clean play. I thought it was a bullshat call. And I a actually thought he played better today. He made some plays and when he was beat, it was one on one coverage with Marshall. There are very few corners, if any, that can handle Marshall one on one.

The problem is we all came into this season thinking he was going to be a solid, possibly even elite, single coverage guy... turns out he is abysmal at it. The safety help sucking as well doesn't really help him either.

Well, that seems like a pretty ridiculous expectation to hold him to in his second season. Did you guys really expect to be elite already? I certainly didn't. I did expect him to be better than he's been but I don't think the dropoff has been nearly as bad as you guys think.

I too don't think McCourty is as bad as he has played. Granted he struggled early but then separated his shoulder. That's a tough injury to play with even with the time off.