2013 results are not that surprising. it's the 2012 playoff run that was the big surprise.

They are probably better than your average 3-5 team though, I see them as basically average, probably a bit unlucky to be 3-5. they have losses by

6 points
3 points
3 points
2 points

they've been outscored by a total of 4 points overall

Gronk's insanely, insanely important in the Red Zone and only slightly less so on third down. He was double covered well on that TD, didnt matter. Have to have at least one or two guys like that on offense who can just make a play even if the defense is there, otherwise really no margin of error on offense.

With Amendola back and Vereen returning, Brady has to be feeling a helluva lot more comfortable on third down and the offense should start rolling.

Hard for Carolina to be a trap game, Panthers will be short favorites (especially if they upset SF). Good news is, with everyone healthy Pats should be able to attack them like they used to attack the Steelers...hurry it up, spread em out, beat em with short passes. Should be a good one.

Plus with BB there are no trap games. Panthers are good and will not be overlooked.

I wouldnt say that's strictly true. Jacksonville game last year comes to mind.

I realize that and it's more of a fan worry. But there's a good chance the Carolina game is just as difficult, if not more difficult than the Broncos game.

I'll take the over.

those games are about the same IMO. Carolina is legit and playing at home. splitting hairs I think. only factor is that we're coming off a bye for the Carolina game which does give us a small bump

I'm still not sold on Carolina. Their defense is obviously very good, but they haven't been tested yet. Big game for them this week on the road vs. the 49ers, coming off a bye.

But this schedule...

vs Seattle L 12-7
@ Buffalo L 24-23
vs NYG W 38-0
@ Arizona L 22-6

Then 4 straight convincing wins which is great and all, but it was against the likes of the Vikings, Rams, Bucs, and Falcons.

I think we match up pretty well against them all things considered. Will definitely have an eye on the CAR/SF game this week.

Edit: Wouldn't surprise me if CAR ends up in the playoffs, just don't think they're really in contention at this point.

I can't WAIT to see the opening number on this NE@CAR game. As I said, I had the Pats a small fav, but that was before they hung 50+ on somebody...

will be very close to pick 'em either way, I lean towards CAR being a tiny fav

I will say if we go to CAR and win (and look good doing so) the narrative around the Pats is going to change a lot. will be a serious contender if Gronk/Amendola stays healthy and I think Vareen could be a huge missing piece for this offense. the Woodhead role from last year

I mean I wouldn't be shocked if we get back to scoring 35 every game...or won't be shocked if it all falls apart.

Im confident that the Pats are going to make the playoffs. After that it wouldnt suprise me if they kept improving every week and turn into a powerhouse that challenges for the superbowl, or if they backed into the playoffs and went 1 and done.

I think the offense looks so much different with Ridley at RB. Vereen is back the next game and that will add more again. As Kneel B4 Zod mentioned it will fill that void of the "woodhead" role.

dude, calm down. When I made the post, they were probably going to be slight favorites in the WC round, and dogs in the next 3 rounds. What I said wasn't remotely unreasonable.

Yeah this. Obviously the Jets have a decent chance at non-zero SB equity, which is to say the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. Before last week's game (which was so much fun to watch btw), I figured the pats were like 5% to ship. Maybe that estimate was a little low, but it seemed like a decent starting point. I obv think that it's higher now. (They rocketed 1.5 points up in the Betting Markets. Pretty insane if you ask me.)

I don't think you understand the concept of home-field advantage if you're asking this question.

I think I do. The Pats were a point favorite before this past weekend. Carolina looked good against Atl and the Pats looked better against Pitt. If Carolina can beat San Fran this weekend, they'll likely be small favorites but if they don't, I'd be shocked if they're favorites against the Pats, even at home.

Do you think it's likely that the Panthers beat the niners this weekend? I sure don't.

bookmaker.eu currently has the game at

Panthers -1.5, -105
Patriots +1.5, -115

Where are you getting the Pats as a favorite? Because from the way this conversation is going, it sounds more like you think I said the Pats were favorites, and that's not what I said at all. I said inpredictable had the Pats as a better team, but only by a point or so, and would be dogs IN Carolina.

And Carolina vs SF is going to have very little influence on the NE/Car line. Obviously I think SF is a pretty decent favorite. WTF does that have to do with anything.

Sounds about right.

Ah, I did read that wrong. You're right and my fault. I thought you said the early lines were that they were one point favorites at that point.

Sorry about that.

ok

i also should revise my comment on the SF/Car game not affecting the Car/Pats line. If Carolina blows SF out, the line will probably move in their favor. If SF blows Carolina out, it'll move in NE's favor. But SF is expected to win (by about a TD), and assuming that the game plays out similar to how we expect, we shouldn't expect that to affect the NE game.

LVH has the game available for betting. Opened at pick'em, early money came in on Carolina, Panthers are -1 right now.

CLIFFS: lol YTF.

Wow, my man Dr Kambour has Carolina at #3 in his power rankings! I had no idea.

(He's got Pats #1, Peyton #2--that, I *did* have some idea.)

More downside than upside for Carolina i.e. if you want the Pats in this I think Id grab them now in case the Panthers curbstomp the Niners.

I kind of agree with that.

man I struggle to see how any numbers based system could have Pats #1. like, if you want to argue that the Pats WILL be the best team in the league if Gronk, Amendola, Brady Vareen, and Talib are healthy and we get no more major injuries, ok? I still think that's wrong but you can at least make that case

but just based on results so far this year? I call shenanigans

I actually flipped through this slides and there is a component for prior year results. not sure how much he is weighting that. and I do think that is appropriate to use in a lot of cases...but for obv. reasons problematic in others