Quote:
Originally Posted by Phildo
yeah leyland is well known for being a sabermetrics guy
and sabermetricians do hate having .220 hitters lead off innings
lol shandrax
Typical...
The concept of batting a .220 guy third is based on the run matrix. The idea is that 1 out/bases empty is the worst possible way to start an inning. It is unlikely that the 2nd slot will make the 3rd out, so the guy in the 3rd slot will hardly ever lead off an inning. See "The Book - Playing the Percentages in Baseball", p. 132.
In other words, you rather have another guy lead off an inning and get on base (or not) and then have the .220 guy make an out, than the other way around. Brilliant! How about pulling yourself out of the quicksand by pulling your own hair? It is the exact same concept!
Now read the following closely as it shows you how much bull**** the run expectancy matrix really is when it comes to answering such lineup questions. There is a difference if you have for instance a runner on 2nd with 1 out and your 2-3-4 guys in the lineup coming up and a runner on 2nd with 1 out and your 7-8-9 guys coming up. Still the run matrix shows a single percentage for both cases, it shows the average.
Prince Fielder and me together hit a combined 46 HRs this season. Unfortunately I hit zero, but on average I hit 23! Notice something?
Such averages are way too superficial, especially when it comes to the 3rd spot in the lineup. You can't make your decisions for this spot based on how the 7-8-9 guys would hit if they came up next, because they will never be in that situation. Their performance is an artifact that doesn't belong into the sample.
Leyland was a fool for batting Sheffield in the 3rd slot when he was hitting below .200 last year and he repeated the very same mistake this year. I cannot blame him, because he read about it in a book, I blame him for switching off his brain and blindly trusting this bull****....just like you do.
Now let's hope the Tigers get lucky make Leyland look like a genius.