Didn't see today's game, but lol at Tigazz pitchers giving up 9 walks and yet Oakland only having 8 ABs with runners in scoring position.

sanchez was simultaneously **** and lights out today. Should call him schroedinger sanchez

Ubaldo Sanchez?

LOL!!!

Nice

4/28: Won both games.

Updated Record: 33-17, +14.80u (+$2,959)
Total points gained on closing market: +677
Pts/gm: +13.54

4/29 Bets:

Royals +150 (Medlen/Hernandez) $250 to win $375
Angels +100 (Santiago/Lewis) $250 to win $250
Mets -122 (Matz/Peavy) $305 to win $250
Pirates Cancelled due to pitching change.

4/30 Bets:

Orioles -114 (Gausman/Latos) $567.50 to win $500
Royals -108 (Ventura/Miley) $220 to win $203.70
Marlins -115 (Chen/Anderson) $237.50 to win $206.52
Cardinals -120 (Garcia/Ross) $300 to win $250
Mets -170 (Degrom/Cain) $425 to win $250

ILP seems like you bet on favorites a lot. Any ideas why that is?

I've noticed this too. It seems my model is biased towards favorites and I'm not sure why. I have a few hypotheses:

1) Maybe it's not the model, and it's just me. Like maybe I subconsciously have stricter requirements for underdogs cuz they win less often. I don't believe this but whatever, I can't rule it out.

2) The model is truly biased and I'll simply never know why.

3) Somehow it's because of the juice involved in the line. Like hypothetically, if the lines were juice free, maybe my model would bet underdogs and favorites equally.

4) Fish are biased towards underdogs. This is the flimsiest hypothesis of all, since we all know that at least when it comes to typical spread bets (i.e. football and basketball type bets), fish love the favorites. But I swear whenever I come across any person who loves to bet baseball they invariably always talk about betting the underdogs. To them baseball is like a coin flip, and thus -140 is bad and +140 is good. Perhaps this phenomenon is more likely to make opening favorites undervalued idk.

favorites and unders are where it's at

You know what's really hot? Betting 5 inning favorites and unders.

My model has hot dogs solidly outselling peanuts. 1st 5, naturally

Radio guys are gushing over fulmer how does he look?

looking quite good...good amount of swinging strikes altho it is the loltwins and their strikeout prone team. ump squeezing him some too

He's looking like the new #4 starter

BIG STICK NICK lives

Is iggy hurt? If not, it was pretty crappy for Brad to throw the rookie out there while sitting the all-star defensive shortstop and veteran catcher. And pretty dumb to sit Salty because he has bad stats against Hughes when the backup catcher is looking up at the Mendoza line

My model says: 97mph + slider + max effort = Tommy John surgery!

Fulmer is great, but we need to make the most out of his performance while it lasts.

Nvm, Tigers GOAT, we going to the WS this year


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Glad I was wrong. Playoffs here we come


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4/29: Went 1-2. Lost $250

Updated Record: 34-19, +13.55u (+$2,709)
Total points gained on closing market: +755
Pts/gm: +14.25

4/30 Bets:

Orioles -114 (Gausman/Latos) $567.50 to win $500
Royals -108 (Ventura/Miley) $220 to win $203.70
Marlins -115 (Chen/Anderson) $237.50 to win $206.52
Cardinals -120 (Garcia/Ross) $300 to win $250
Mets -170 (Degrom/Cain) $425 to win $250

5/1 Bets:

Dodgers -270 (Kershaw/Pomeranz) $675 to win $250
Red Sox -150 (Price/Eovaldi) $375 to win $250
Reds +140 (Iglesias/Locke) $250 to win $350

Edit: Additional Red Sox bet -153 $382.50 to win $250

Man, this team is a trip sometimes. Lose a bunch, then win 5 of 6.

Does anyone else feel like our record is going to be artificially inflated by crushing the Twins all year?

Nah. Overall we're in a tough division. Really, any AL division compared to the NL. Nats and Mets playing with Phils and Barvs is a crime against humanity

Line moves 3 points against... DOUBLE YOUR BET!!!

Betonline.ag will only let me put "x to win $250" down at a time. To put more money on a game I have to wait for the lines to refresh. I have Red Sox valued at between -195 and -201. Going with the lower value (-195) to be conservative, at -153 I have a 5.63% edge. I'm trying to only make bets when I have at least a 3% perceived edge+, and I'm also trying to get more aggressive when I have close to double that edge. So that's why I put more money on Red Sox.

You mentioned the lower betting cap so I figured it was something like that, but the gamboool narrative is more fun