I like it.

I'm on board. We bout to be rich bitches!! Me and ILP coming for control of the Tigazzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I will post my picks each day. I promise they will all be locks, and by locks I mean I will not make a bet unless there is at least a 10 point difference between my projected line and the market line. E.G. if my model says the Tigers are a +104 underdog, I will not place a bet unless they are at least at +114 on 5dimes.

I forget.. are we betting with ILP or against?

nice

That's awesome.

Oh man. Proving all the haters wrong AND getting rich! This is gonna be the greatest summer of my life.

I assume that your formula ignores the effect that homeplate-umpires have on the outcome.

http://princeofslides.blogspot.de/20...ike-zones.html

Thanx for the link. I enjoy reading articles on this topic.

Yes you are correct. My model does ignore the effect of umpires. I don't think this is a problem however because I will not be using the model to bet on O/U totals or Run Lines--the exact type of bets that would theoretically benefit from this information. I'm only gonna be making money line bets. This approach should mitigate the umpire effect severely.

Another weakness of my model is I am not gonna account for the handedness of pitcher vs lineup. I hope that blind spot is not too big of a deal.

Nothing to see here

Wait I assumed I was gonna get rich fading ILP in every single spot. Together we are gonna do it but he will be busto and I'll be robusto.

Newsflash: We need to plan this season without Sanchez and Alex Wilson.

If they are already experiencing physical problems in spring, there is no way that they will make it through the season. This is pretty sad especially for Wilson, because they sacrificed his shoulder in order to make last place with some sort of dignity.

My feeling with the Tigers last year was that we had a lot of blowouts in one way or the other. We either scored a ton of runs or virtually nothing. Since our main strength is still the offense, umpires with a small strikezone who average nearly 10 runs per game should favor us, while the guys with a big strikezone should hurt us.

No Sanchez or non-healthy and thus ineffective Sanchez = no hope for playoffs imo. Gotta have Verlander, Zimmermann and Sanchez playing well for this team to have a shot. Hopefully the sore arm thing is just a scare.

I agree. Makes sense.

I asked my gf if she wanted to invest in my baseball fund and she laughed at me and said she wanted nothing to do with my hopeless formula. Sux I probably have to wake up next to that for the rest of my life.

Yeah Sanchez seems absolutely crucial.

Its strange that she is the fiscally responsible one now.

Not if you win!

If your g/f is anything like my wife then she knows she doesn't need to invest, she'll be taking those winnings either way. The negative freeroll is real.

Dude I GOT this. You'll see when I show you my model (I actually have two models, my WAR model and my Runs Allowed model) in 1 or 2 months (forgot when exactly you're coming). Trust me on this. Your head will explode in awe!

Think of it this way. When I bet on football and basketball I am using my hating money fish brain. When I bet on baseball I will be using my poker brain, i.e. my psychopathic, "screwplay the turn vs a poor mother with two kids and feel nothing inside", brain. That part of my brain has always served me well!

Baseball is beatable man. There is way less money bet on baseball than NFL or NBA, implying there are inefficiencies to be had! The standard juice of a football or basketball wager is 4.76%. For baseball the average juice is 1.78%! Standing on the shoulders of the sabermetrics community I can scale that much smaller hurdle!

God it's gonna be amazing printing all this free money every day of the week. This next month is gonna take FOREVER.

Who is going to do the season simulashe now that G10 is ghost?

Yep. No ****ing doubt! And I will shovel as much crow in her disloyal mouth as she can eat.

Ha! Very true in my case as well:-/

He will be back. I have no evidence to support that claim, but I think it's something that we all must believe.

Holaday hits a grandslam against the Yankees and now two homeruns against the Nats. It's quite funny how this guy always outperforms the expectation and still nobody trusts him.