I just crunched the numbers and the win% of our opponents is pretty close. Atlanta's average opponent is playing .495 baseball, while the Mets' average opponent is .507. If you factor in that the Braves have won one additional game against their opponents and that impacts the average win%, that narrows the gap another .001.

The main difference is road vs home.

Yeah and while I think this moaning by Braves fans about the STRENGTH of their opponents is ridiculous (and pretty much proven so) I do acknowledge the home/road thing. I have absolutely no idea why the Braves had such a high% of road games in the first 40% of the season.

Wait, so the Mets schedule has actually been harder than the Braves schedule? lmao.

Mets opponents have won about one and a third percentage points more of their total games than Braves opponents have.

And actually I miscalculated it and the Mets SOS should be .509. I forgot to factor in the last two game series with the Braves.

Removing all play between the two teams (which probably shouldn't be factored into a SOS comparison) gives the Braves at .486 and the Mets at .501. If I were being really thorough, I would remove wins and losses vs the Braves and Mets from the win% of all the teams, but that is too much work and we know it will benefit the Braves to the tune of about .0015 to do so.

So if you factor in this total .013 difference between the SOS you might conclude that a random .500 team would probably have one more win playing the Braves' schedule than the Mets' schedule. So I would rate SOS differences between the teams as about as important as the outcome of one game--not very meaningful, in other words.

Again, road play is not taken into consideration here.

fwiw I am a Braves fan.

ty for the explanation 50.

Nice post T50.

GeoffRas made a good point, these teams are probably closer than Braves fans want to admit, and maybe the Braves are a little better than Mets fans want to admit.

It's perfectly rational to be optimistic about your own favorite teams and pessimistic about a rival team imo.

Yes I will acquiesce that the Braves might be a tad bit better then I would like to admit. But I just want to point out the Mets have finished ahead of the Braves 3 out of the last 4 years and the one year they did not they had 32 players hit the DL.

I'm starting to appreciate our mini-downswong, that dry spell and this exciting young team has me watching baseball everyday again (probably a Braves fan joke in there for you).

I want the Braves and Mets to be good all season. Would to great to beat out the Braves on the last game of the season and see Chipper retire on that note.

That would be pretty sweet revenge for the Mets fans that had to endure him destroying you all late in the season almost annually for the better part of a decade.

Dunno, never thought the Braves played a tougher schedule as far actual team strength, but the home/road thing is pretty big. Am almost positive that the Braves have the easier schedule going forward, mainly due to way more home games, and that is all that really matters at this point.

As far as exceeding expectations, the Braves over/under going into the season was 86 which puts them right in the playoff picture, don't know what the over/under for the Mets was, but pretty sure it was significantly lower. Also, the Braves run differential is +55 compared to +37 for the Mets, which I think should translate to slightly more than .5 game lead, but obv is not that big a deal.

As far as the big picture, Mets obv have a shot to win the NL East, but as a Braves fan, the scenario where the Mets finish first, the Braves 2nd, and Phillies 3rd is still not something I spend anytime worrying about. Sure its possible, but I'm expecting the Phillies to surge at some point, and I don't think the Mets can keep up (not that I think the Braves can necessarily keep up either, but they have a much better chance imo. Both teams keeping up seems very unlikely to me). If come September, the Phillies are sitting at a few games over .500 and the Braves have a shot at taking the division without having to win 90+ games, then that would be something I am very, very happy to be wrong about. If that happens AND the Mets win 90+ games to beat the Braves, then I'll just have to tip my cap to them and hope we sneak in through the Wild Card.

Fair points. Everyone keeps forgetting that the Mets have 2 aces now though, whom nobody thought the Mets had before the season started. Not even Mets fans.

Pelfrey has pitched like a good to very good pitcher over the first 64 games of the season and gotten the results of ace. Very far from being able to say that he is actually an ace.

If Pelfrey is counted as an ace Hudson, JJ, and Hanson are absolutely aces.

The Mets were 33-29 at this time last season btw.

The east really needs a whipping boy if we have a shot at the wild card. I nominate Washington. They make an excellent whipping boy. It's a tradition that spans decades of play as well as international borders.

Rutroh Tommy looks like he's on his game today...1 run might be enough

weeee McCann + Glaus showing their WIM

Hanson is looking sick tonight!

When he's on he is on.

This was a fun game to be at tonight, unlike last night (so depressing - 2 1/2 hr rain delay followed by a never ending first with 4 runs and errors everywhere), until the 9th when Venters went all weird. He is so much better on the road.

Glaus is playing out of his mind right now.

Fav shirt Ive seen at Brave's game. Dirty hippy wearing puke green shirt with standard Heyward pic in middle. Text= "Heyward is my homeboy."

So awesome to go 2 and 1 against the Rays. Now we get to welcome the Royals into town! Better yet, the Phils and Mets have to play the Twins and @NYY. The Mets especially have a brutality schedule coming up--@NYY, vsDetriot, and vsTwins. Our vsKC, @CWS, vsDetroit is a lot more reasonable.

Also, the Marlins and Nats are finally beginning to fall behind.

It's pretty sick that we took 2/3 @Minnesota and at home vs. the Rays and the Mets are right on our ass.

We're in a great spot to open up the lead a little.

Mets best record in baseball for the past 30 days <3333

Can't get too confident against KC with Lowe/KK/Medlen starting..gonna have to score some runs.