I'm sitting McCoy for Spiller and Bradshaw - PPR. I am focused on upside, with P Maning, R Moss, Megatron, V Davis, and Mendy my other key starters.

The trinomial tree would look like this:

35% probability that Eagles def keeps it close and as a result we see a lot more of Mike Bell to run out the clock - McCoy 8 rushes for 22 yards, 2 receptions for 18 yards, 1 TD = 11 pts.

55% it's a Rodgers highlight reel and McCoy plays every down, with Kolb going 18/45, and McCoy catches 6 balls for, say, 45 yards, 4 rushes for 22 yards, 0 TD= 12 pts.

10% the Eagles run all over GB and McCoy goes for 100 yards rushing, catches 5 balls for 45 yards, and scores a TD - 25 pts.

.35*11 + .55*12 +.10*25 = 3.85+6.6+2.5 = 12.95

If you change the matchups to Spiller v. Mia and Bradshaw v. Car, I think each has a much higher weighting towards the 25 pts scenario, so I'm taking the higher risk/reward plays over McCoy.

Felix if you want the surer bet for 10 pts.; Moss if you want the high beta play with greater upside IMHO.

Soft league, but that's why it's more important for me to win. Standard scoring. Non PPR.

Start 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR of:

RB:
MJD
Steven Jackson
Jerome Harrison
Jahvid Best
Ahmad Bradshaw

WR:
Jennings
NYG Smith
Boldin
Moss
Jacoby Jones

Current starters bolded.

Good?

I'm thinking Harrison over Best for the flex. TB is lol. Best could have a huge day, but I could see him coming up with only yards, too. Boldin over Harrison was my other tough choice, but ultimately I'm assuming Revis might kill his game.

Think I have some pretty straight forward decisions this week, agree/disagree?
No PPR in any, all standard scoring and 12 team league

League 1

E Manning
B Roethlisberger (R)

A Peterson
R Mathews
Deangelo Williams (RB Flex league)
B Jackson (GB)

Dwyane Bowe
Hines Ward
Dallas Clark

Dez Bryant
Heath Miller
M Massaquoi
Roy Williams
Terrell Owens




League 2

QB Peyton Manning (Ind - QB)
WR Michael Crabtree (SF - WR)
WR Santana Moss (Was - WR)
WR Devin Aromashodu (Chi - WR)
RB Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
RB Ronnie Brown (Mia - RB)
TE Dallas Clark (Ind - TE)
K Rob Bironas (Ten - K)
DEF Minnesota (Min - DEF)

Bench

Tomlinson
Larry Johnson

Mike Williams (TB)
Edelman
Roy Williams


League 3

E. Manning
Mcnabb
Stafford

MJD
Ronnie Brown
Stewart
Sproles

Bowe
Evans
S. Moss (Flex)
Nicks
Mike Williams

Vernon

First time looking @ all 3 teams put together, I gotta start drafting real WRs next year jesus

Need to start 2 out of 3 WR. .33 PPR league

Garcon vs Hou D
Bowe vs SD D
Crabtree vs Sea D

Bowe

Sit Bowe or start him?

Any way I can start Stafford over Flacco this week? He did well against the Bears last year.

No negative points for picks. Bonus at 300 yards. 4 points/td.

Stafford vs. CHI
Flacco vs. NYJ

+1 one start Bowe

I'd go Flacco. Lions have a new toy at RB that they'll probably hand off to quite a bit and Bears D (pass rush) is better than last year imo

C-Vig,

League 2 I'd go with Mike Williams over Aromashadu

League 3 Nicks over Lee Evans

Confirm.

Bowe and Garcon pretty easily for me. Anthony Gonzalez might be limited, which increases Garcon's value.

Flacco probably. Hard to start a boom/bust type guy on week 1.

Disagree about Mike Williams. Aromashadu gets to play the Lions. It's hard to go against that. It's why you draft NFC North players. Twice a year they get the play the Lions.

I would probably go with Nicks over Evans, though, as freehat said.

Yes but the Bears Oline is a little suspect and Lions DL improved with superSuh. I think there will but some pressure on Cutler

+1 on Nicks over Evans

are we using this thread for late "such and such is out" notices, or something else?

Might as well make it the thread for that.

Bush is for sure out. I'm still waiting for word on Beanie but I imagine he's out.

Owen Daniels is out.

Even if Wells isn't out Cards should take a decent early lead and he'll get pulled early imo

yeah, also waiting for a decision on wells, although given that this league is 1/2 ppr i think i'll start forte anyway even if wells starts

claydavis.gif

Blahhhhhhh

Eli vs CAR
Kolb vs GB
McNabb vs DAL

Eli imo eventhough Kolb will need to throw a bunch

er, eli

daniels is definitely out? i've seen he's active, if he is out, pick up keller or gresham?

keller imo

Michael Bush is inactive. Worth considering RunDMC (@ TEN) over Arian Foster (vs. Indy)? 0.5 PPR