It can't ever be that bad of an idea to pick against Oakland.

Truths in thread

Somebody should put Eddy on suicide watch tonight.

Hope he didn't **** it.

Also hope people in my league took them.

Can't believe that upset went down and no one in my pool was on it. What a waste.

Ugly stuff. Hope you dodged it, Eddy.

Lol, I had the worst day today at work. Just a really ****ty day, and I said to myself, "it would really suck to get knocked out of the survivor tonight", so I switched my pick to SF.

Eddy unpucker yet?

Had SF this week. First time since taking Buf v Min (Watkins' last second TD) did my butt pucker that much.

lol. Week 13 here we come. I should start looking to next week

I was on that same game. It's a bad look when you're hoping for the Bills to pull out a miracle.

"Oh god. Why did we pick the Bills!?! Why why why!

WATKINSSSSSSSSSSSS"

Not sure where to go this week...

I have Cincy available, but @TB screams letdown game to me. Vegas agrees it seems with them only -4 right now.

Other choices are STL over OAK or NYG over JAX. Also have Houston but really don't trust them with Fitz back under center vs anyone, even TEN.

STL and HOU are both the biggest favorites at -7.

I'm in the same boat.

My order of where I'm leaning:

STL vs Oak
Det vs Chicago
Hou vs Ten
Miami vs NYJ
NYG vs Jax


Really tough week for me

Det and rams are both -7. Det picked about a fifth as much as rams. Det seems easy pick here.

I can see why people are loathe to pick short week teams.

I think Houston is a reasonable shout for most competitions, Tennessee are bad.

Huh? Just pick the biggest favorite every week and win. Didn't realize it were that easy.

Not sure if trolling here....

Every week you come in and cite who the largest favs are that week without giving any other reasons etc etc. I want to be in a pool with that type of thinking.

That's 100% false. Review my posts. I weigh the vegas odds vs the pick % and add in a little bit of future value perspective. Even my last post I said Det and StL have the same wininngs odds but det should be picked since they are picked 1/5th the amount as StL. If you want to look at other options we can do that too. Houston and Miami also warrant consideration. But I know you wouldn't pick Miami.

Aren't you the guy that is smarter than Vegas and doesn't pick road or divisional games because you arbitrarily decided a -400 road team has less of a chance of winning than a -400 home team?

really curious why you'd pick a 40% publicly picked team over a 10% publicly picked team when their win odds are the same.

I think that you believe that Vegas is trying to to predict who will win the game. I'm probably going to end up not taking anybody on that list.

Detroit would be a really nice pick, but they have several games coming up that are really really nice, so I'm avoiding them.

My roadmap calls for me to be on IND this week and I see no good reason not to. Avoided them last week specifically to take them now. Colt starting is somewhat bothersome, because RGKnee is just such a joke. But then again, it's Colt McCoy, so how worried can one really be? This pool started week 5 and I've used: ARI, BAL, BUF, CIN, MIA, NO, PHI and SD.

I've modified my plan a little and it now looks like (have to pick 2/wk starting wk14):
13 - IND v WAS
14 - DEN v BUF & GB v ATL
15 - DET v MIN & KC v OAK
16 - STL v NYG & NE @ NYJ
17 - HOU v JAC & SEA v STL

The other option I was considering this week was STL hosting OAK. It bothers me slightly that Oakland got a taste of winning and have now had extra time to rest/prepare for the game. STL hasn't exactly been the most stable team themselves. I have a feeling I'm going to wind up rooting hard for Oakland come Sunday.

I'm a Houston homer and I wouldn't dare pick them this week. God only knows how that game's going to go.

Yes. If you believe otherwise I'm not sure why you are in survivor pools to begin with and not just killing the books with your superior knowledge.

In general, Vegas doesn't give a **** who wins the games. They're just trying to get half the action on each side.