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NFL DFS Thread 2015 NFL DFS Thread 2015

09-11-2015 , 01:52 PM
always worth reassessing sunday morning as there is more clarity on injuries and you may be able to pay up for someone you wanted by trading down elsewhere to someone filling in who should get more touches than were expected on thur.
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09-11-2015 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackburn
In GPPs I dont see why you would be changing your lineups, they should be already built with upside in mind.

Cash is a different story if you play guys on thursday night and they miss you may want to change to higher upside guys for the rest of the weekend to try to make up the points you lost on thursday as you probably aren't winning with average performances at that point.
GPP's are actually *very* crucial for changing laneups when it comes to having players in sunday or monday night games for NFL.

Having players left and being able to pivot off of them for upside is large. ex: 10 players in front of you + you all have 1 player left, and it's clearly all the same player. Being able to pivot off to another player(if it makes sense) can potentially catapult you over them if it plays out right, instead of leaving you behind all 10. Obviously gotta decide whether or not it's worth the risk and all, but the potential is large.

I mean it won't happen too often, but the late pivot decision can win large amounts of cash.
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09-11-2015 , 05:17 PM
Do you guys have rotogrinders subscriptions? If so, worthwhile?
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09-11-2015 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pieceofcake
i hate that i can edit it right now, im so tempted to play around with my linuep around the monster games from my 3 players but i should just let it play out right ?
Yeah same here. Ran Brown/Gronk on all my teams and then Brady on a couple.
My strategy is just to keep doing research then making final roster decisions Saturday night/Sunday morning for DK lineups. I havent fully locked in who my main guys esp at rb will be this week so Ive got some thinking to do.
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09-11-2015 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
Do you guys have rotogrinders subscriptions? If so, worthwhile?
I just got one for making a fan duel account and then promptly lost all my money betting cfb the thing is it's only good for fan duel and I am not going to reload. Maybe it's better for dk?
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09-11-2015 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kondo
I just got one for making a fan duel account and then promptly lost all my money betting cfb the thing is it's only good for fan duel and I am not going to reload. Maybe it's better for dk?
I...am...Ron...Burgandy?
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09-11-2015 , 06:41 PM
noob question:

For high volume players, how many unique cash game lineups do you make?

I've only played soccer dfs where it's rare to make more than one cash lineup (and if you did it'd be to just pivot 1 position perhaps).

But for NFL there's more games and more combos of worthwhile players to select from, also more correlation between players.

Like if I go and use my 50 beginner games on DK this weekend should I just blast all 50 with a unique cash lineup or spread it around?
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09-11-2015 , 07:40 PM
It's just risk tolerance. It really doesn't matter. The chance you can distinguish between your best lineup and 15th best lineup is near zero anyway and besides the actual EV difference between the two is basically negligible.
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09-11-2015 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SA16
It's just risk tolerance. It really doesn't matter. The chance you can distinguish between your best lineup and 15th best lineup is near zero anyway and besides the actual EV difference between the two is basically negligible.
If you play 15 cash lineups then you're just paying rake because there is no chance that 15 different lineups all cash unless you're just pivoting defense + 1 player in each lineup or something like that.
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09-11-2015 , 07:50 PM
No...
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09-11-2015 , 08:09 PM
sorry my wording was wrong.

I meant should I play all 50 of my beginner 50/50's with the same lineup or make like say between 2 - 5 different lineups?

And I know 50 different cash lineups is ridic but what's the sweet spot? 2, 3, 5, ??
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09-11-2015 , 09:06 PM
The best way to reduce risk in cash games is to play more heads-up instead of 50/50 20+ person leagues.
NFL DFS Thread 2015 Quote
09-11-2015 , 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phialpha1856
GPP's are actually *very* crucial for changing laneups when it comes to having players in sunday or monday night games for NFL.

Having players left and being able to pivot off of them for upside is large. ex: 10 players in front of you + you all have 1 player left, and it's clearly all the same player. Being able to pivot off to another player(if it makes sense) can potentially catapult you over them if it plays out right, instead of leaving you behind all 10. Obviously gotta decide whether or not it's worth the risk and all, but the potential is large.

I mean it won't happen too often, but the late pivot decision can win large amounts of cash.
Yea i learned this the hard way last year. I had Jordy and Ingram going Sunday night and Jordy and Cobb were basically the same price. Had i pivoted to Cobb i would of got 2nd for 100k
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09-11-2015 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MediocrePlayer2.0
sorry my wording was wrong.

I meant should I play all 50 of my beginner 50/50's with the same lineup or make like say between 2 - 5 different lineups?

And I know 50 different cash lineups is ridic but what's the sweet spot? 2, 3, 5, ??
There is no right or wrong answer, many serious players play 1 cash lineup, some 2, some more. Anyone who tells you their way is the only way is a ****ing idiot and can be dismissed out of hand. The sweet spot is how ever many iterations you feel give you the biggest edge, or like in my case, as someone who builds a lot of lineups, the biggest edge with the least variance.
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09-11-2015 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Losing all
There is no right or wrong answer, many serious players play 1 cash lineup, some 2, some more. Anyone who tells you their way is the only way is a ****ing idiot and can be dismissed out of hand. The sweet spot is how ever many iterations you feel give you the biggest edge, or like in my case, as someone who builds a lot of lineups, the biggest edge with the least variance.
this is not true. there is definitely a such thing is being overly diverse in cash. You can construct good GPP lineups using a player universe that includes 45 WRs and 20 RBs in a given week because the value in GPPs comes from finishing in the top .1-.001%. If you do this in cash then you will be a loser.
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09-12-2015 , 12:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
this is not true. there is definitely a such thing is being overly diverse in cash. You can construct good GPP lineups using a player universe that includes 45 WRs and 20 RBs in a given week because the value in GPPs comes from finishing in the top .1-.001%. If you do this in cash then you will be a loser.
You make it sound like you have to scrap everything from team 1 when you move on to team 2, that's not even close to true. Between the Thur slate and Sun slate across sites I've built an obscene amount of lineups so far, hundreds, my WR1 and WR2 are on approx 90% and 65% of these lineups.
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09-12-2015 , 02:29 AM
so damn excited for sunday
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09-12-2015 , 06:49 AM
had amendola fk me
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09-12-2015 , 08:26 AM
After opening my first daily account (FanDuel) this week I have done a little more research. I think I have the main differences narrowed down to this.

FanDuel - .5ppr Kicker
Yahoo - .5ppr Flex
Draft Kings - 1ppr Flex

Any other major differences that I am missing? I think I am gonna open a Draft Kings today. I can definitely see the allure of no kicker and a flex instead. I would expect FD and DK have the most fish due to massive advertising. They had a segment on CNBC the other day claiming DK and FD are to 2 largest advertisers going right now. More than beer, cars, fast food or boner pills.
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09-12-2015 , 08:43 AM
one cash lineup 4lyfe. embrace the variance.
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09-12-2015 , 09:13 AM
thanks for the discussion guys

Took my noob question and got a lot of good input
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09-12-2015 , 10:13 AM
I generally submit 2-3 lineups in 50/50s which definitely have significant lineup differences. I find it reduces variance and you can still cash across the board.
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09-12-2015 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyc999
I generally submit 2-3 lineups in 50/50s which definitely have significant lineup differences. I find it reduces variance and you can still cash across the board.
As a noob to daily I am already seeing there are lots of different approaches and strategies and as I get more into it I'm sure I will see even more. This first week I am just gonna play a few real cheap entry type stuff to get my feet wet and see how it plays out. Already have a decent start on 2 entries with a Gronk/Brown and a Gronk/Edelmann while up against it in a H2H against a Gronk/Brown. Most of my entries don't start until Sunday.

I already know I will be a sucker for the big field tourneys and those huge payouts which pretty much will require severe luckboxing no matter how good you are at FF. What are everyones favorite grind for small profits? Head to head, multipliers, 50/50's?
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09-12-2015 , 12:53 PM
50/50s
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09-12-2015 , 01:02 PM
i signed up for Aces and it seems very un intuitive to use so far D:
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