Two more instances discovered. I'm guessing more are to come. RIP NFFC.

So is the theory this is a rogue user or does it go deeper than that? Are the people that run the site in on it hoping they wouldn’t get caught?

It was a rogue high level employee helping a rogue user. The employee has been fired and the user has been banned. This employee had access to everything on the back-end, from my understanding. It's basically akin to a league commissioner making roster changes after lineup locks.

The cliffs are some high volume streamers were sweating the divisional playoff games. Going into the Chiefs game, they had a decision between playing Rice or Kelce. They based that decision on the user who was caught cheating, as their lineups were very similar. The streamers chose Kelce, and once lineups locked, they noticed the cheating user they were trying to overcome had chosen Rice, making them feel great about their Kelce pick. You can't see opposing lineups until after lock.

Around an hour and a half or so into the Chiefs/Bills game, they noticed the user's lineup somehow now had Kelce instead of Rice. They started investigating the transaction log, luckily NFFC has this feature available to the public, and noticed that Rice was swapped for Kelce at 6:46 pm CST when the game began at 5:30 pm CST. 6:46 CST was 3 minutes after Kelce had scored his first TD of the game.

They immediately reported this issue to the NFFC owner, who they know personally due to a sponsorship relationship. The owner initially brushed it off as impossible, and seemingly tried to sweep it under the rug. The streamers then went back to the Wild Card round and noticed another swap for the same user after game lock from Mostert to Aaron Jones. At this point, the owner of NFFC had no choice but to accept something nefarious had happened.

The employee was quickly terminated and the NFFC owner started ranting about the situation on the NFFC forum board. He has not handled it well from a PR perspective, imo. The NFFC owner also claimed at the time that this was absolutely the only time this ever happened and the players had nothing to worry about (as if we haven't seen that story before). Since then, players have investigated further and found more instances of lineup changes being made after lock, which is what I posted above your post.

Allegedly, the rogue employee and rogue user are also cousins.

As of now, the theory is the owner had nothing to do with this and was completely unaware of the situation until it was brought to his attention. I tend to lean that way, as well.

With that said, it is clear there were massive security flaws, as this should have been something easily flagged. It was in the damn public transition log. Had these streamers not been sweating that specific user lineup, it's likely this still would not have been uncovered as of today. I guess no one really pays attention to the transition log, especially for other teams. I can't say for certain how it all works though, as I've never played NFFC.

Did a large fantasy playoff pool with a top payout of $1830 and my 'joke' entry was all Lions and its currently in 13th place.

Only 3 teams (out of 183) have Goff, 11 Montgomery, 7 Laporta, 4 Lions D, 2 Reynolds, and 2 Jamo
So today's game will either propel this entry into the money or relegate it to the loser pile.

Good luck!

Well this worked out, ended up locking it up before the Super Bowl is played!

Nice work! And even if you hadn’t locked it up yet, that’s a hell of a squad for the SB.

Underdog released their $3 and $10 best ball pre-draft big board tournies today.

It’s .5 PPR, start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex bench 12.

Top 24 ADP. 5k entrants so far, but there are slow drafts in addition to fast.

CMC
Reek
CD
JJ
Chase
Breece
ARSB
Puka
Gibbs
Bijan
Kyren
JT

G Wilson
AJB
Saquon
DJM
Nico
Deebo
Josh
Rachaad
Achane
Metcalf
Aiyuk
Pacheco

MHJ is the first rookie at 33.

LaPorta first TE at 44.

I doubt I’ll fire any, as that’s too much variance for my taste. Although, I’ve been feeling the itch. Either way, I’ll definitely be tracking ADP movement.

First look, Gibbs, Saquon, DJM, Deebo, Achane, Aiyuk all iffy to me. Rachaad, Kyren, Pacheco, Metcalf are TBD.

Interesting stuff - way too early 2024 reactions:

Early RBs I like: CMC obv, Breece, Gibbs, JT, Bijan

Early RBs I’ll fade: Kyren, Saquon, Rachaad

Unsure on Achane & Pacheco.

Aiyuk and Metcalf too high (but I’ll prob draft a lot of JSN again if he’s ~R6). I like DJM but don’t know if Caleb throwing to him is what I want in a R2 WR. Very interested to see how the GB WRs shake out after April/real-draft.

Letting Kelce drop below round 3 feels wrong. (Possible retirement being priced in? That seems wrong).

I don't think it's retirement being priced in entirely, I think it's a partial combination of his level of play dropping off a bit, and the quality of play from other tight ends being much, much better so he doesn't have quite as high a value over replacement as before - where as this season it was him, Mandrews and, er, wait, no it's gone, we've still got Kittle, Hockenson, Andrews assuming he comes back from injury, LaPorta is up there already, maybe Engram repeats, Pitts might finally get it together under new coaching, McBride was looking very good once Ertz got out of the way, the likes of Kincaid and Ferguson might make a big step up in a second/third season, veterans like Njoku are capable of a better baseline than before, then maybe you've got wildcards who can step up either as rookies like Bowers or second year players like Mayer or the two at Green Bay, if not to become elite then to provide another player that cuts the value over replacement. I've taken Kelce early and often for several seasons in redraft but I'm almost certainly waiting until TE10-15 this year

That makes sense - thanks for the thoughts. Another point to consider is simply how many raw fantasy points those top TEs are producing - ex: in 2022 Kelce had 260 pts in 0.5 PPR - more points than Diggs in 2022, who was a late 1st in most 2023 drafts. Laporta had 196 pts in 0.5 PPR in 2023. So if the top TEs are being priced to “expect” ~200 pts in 2024, makes sense that a few more WRs should go ahead of them in 2024 drafts (thus probably landing the top group of TEs in the ~4th round).

I don't expect to have much Kelce at cost. He's 45.8 right now. Assuming he doesn't retire, I expect him to settle somewhere in the mid to late third round. A lot of people will view that as a nice discount from the mid to late first he's been recently. Especially on the back of these playoff performances.

LaPorta already up to 38.7 since my post yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes up to the 2/3 turn by August.

Current top 12 TE ADP

LaPorta 38.7
Kelce 45.8
Andrews 52.8
Kittle 65.4
Kincaid 78.4
Engram 84.3
Njoku 85.6
McBride 87.2, and rising quickly. For some reason he was at 114 yesterday.
Ferguson 91.5
Bowers 97.8
Hock 97.8
Pitts 98.5

It also doesn't help that in Rice KC might finally have found a semi-competent WR

I don't think I'll be able to get behind Gibbs as a late first, especially in managed leagues. It'll probably be fine in best ball. Love the guy's game, but Monty is going to continue to be a thorn.

Metcalf/JSN will be dependent on the new coaches plus whether Lockett returns (I think he does), but they could have some nice upside. Don't like the prices right now though.

Re: DJM, before what CJ did this season with Nico and Tank, all the talk was how bad rookie QBs are for WRs. Caleb is obviously better than the average rookie QB, but I won't have any DJM in the 2nd. I'm guessing he will fall into the 3rd, and maybe early 4th. That's about where he was drafted last season.

GB WRs are going to need injuries to boost each other, but as it stands now, tough to trust any of them to be consistent week to week.

Yup, I was going to add Rice + Pacheco touches + the expectation of them adding at least another WR since the rest of that room is garbage doesn't help Kelce.

I'll be interested to see who they add to go with Pacheco, since I don't expect CEH or McKinnon back. But Kelce in the third is going to be a pass if I can get Andrews, Kittle, McBride, etc. later. Pitts is also going to be very interesting. I think I'll be in on him again and hoping to avoid pain.

full PPR, 10 teamer, start 2QB/2RB/2WR/2flex/0TE

You can keep as many players as you want that you drafted last year and who are still on your roster for the same price you drafted them. However, you can only keep one player that you kept last year for what you kept the previous year.

Is $75 too much out of a $250 budget for CMC? My only other options for 2nd year keepers are jakobi meyers for $3 or neither of them.

$75 is cheap as so many other players will come in rostered already to next year's draft.

Probably not too much for him. He should be the 1.01 in redraft.

But tough to say without seeing the rest of your roster, other teams, etc.

I also don’t play keeper or auction, so take my opinions with a grain of salt.

Also depends on how much budget you want to have to target rookies. Strong QB and WR potential + Bowers. Rookie RBs not so much.

How much would you expect CMC to go for if you don’t keep him?

Thanks for the responses.

If you took the most expensive player at his position over the last 3 years and averaged you would get:
QB: $45
RB: $75
WR: $60
TE: $30

In the 5 years I've been in the league I don't think I've ever drafted a rookie except some $1 lottery tickets as I think the premium the top 15 rookies go for over their redraft value is too much.

Considering we only start 60 rb/wr/te each week (fewer than most leagues) I think depth in this league is overvalued so I tend to go stud heavy.

CMC for 30% of budget seems cheap

Yeah, based on those notes, I’d keep CMC for $75.

On another note, I degened and joined a few of those big board $3 best ball drafts lol. Only slow drafts so far though.

I think he probably goes for around $70-$75 in $200 auctions next year, so seems like a steal to me

Maybe I'm crazy but feels like Mcbride should be above Kittle to me. Is the reason he's not bc they may have MHJ next year?

I think the initial ADP data was faulty in some spots. Not exactly sure how UD set it since these are the first 2024 contests.

He’s up to 80.2 now and TE6. Agreed he should be up with Andrews and Kittle.

MHJ up to 26 now. WR15.

Approaching 20k entrants so far between their two contests, so ADP data should be getting better.

Why is Hockenson the 11th TE despite having the 4th most receiving yards last year?

Kirk may be gone next year, but the 7 games he played with dobbs/mullens he averaged 11.6 points/game in .5 PPR. The top TE in fantasy in 2023 finished with 11.5 pts/game.