Stuff that I got right/lucky this year:

(1) Avoided a lot of 1st-2nd round landmines - basically went hard at WR, the only RB I drafted in these rounds was CMC. Zero Saquon / Ekeler / Chubb. Was prepared & excited to take Bijan if he fell to me at 1.09, but that didn’t happen (took Lamb).

(2) Blew my FAAB wads on Puka in redraft after week 1. Ended up with zero Kyren though.

(3) Drafted LaPorta when I couldn’t get one of Andrews/Hockenson. Was never in a draft where getting Kelce was likely.

(4) Got Stroud just as he was heating up.

Stuff I’ll probably do differently next year:

(1) Not buy into the “get early QB” hype. Jalen + Josh + Mahomes are clearly worth ~3rd rounders in redraft (wouldn’t be surprised to see Josh + Jalen go end of 2nd), but there’s so much WR/RB value in rounds 3-7 that it’s probably better to platoon 2 later QBs. Need to back some of this up with math/stats but I just can’t be convinced that taking a QB in rounds 4-8 is worth it. If you hit on Lamar (r4) that’s awesome, and maybe that’s going to be Burrow next year with his health driving the cost down.

(2) When two guys are really close in rankings, break the tie by whose team is projected to be better. Overall scoring was down again (compared to 2020-2021), and TDs matter in fantasy, so… but maybe this’ll get priced into ADP next year…we’ll see.

Would love to blame injuries but fact remains my team sucked and missed the playoffs.

Went WR heavy early with JJ, Olave and Ridley as WR1,11 and 12 taken and they returned basically zero value. Olave WR20, Ridley WR24 and JJ WR37 so pretty much wasted picks.

Hit way better on RBs with Cook, Taylor, Monty, and Mostert as RBs 17,18,26 and 35 and they returned RB11, RB37, RB18, and RB3

QB was a carousel all year after losing Rodgers in game 1. Highly doubt I will not take a running QB early next year - streaming QBs not nearly as much fun as I imagined.

TE went with Goedert as TE6 and was not impressed at all. He wont be on my team again.


In happier news I did ship my Guillotine league for 1.8k even when fate tried to F me; added CMC and Kelce to my roster for the finals and they were far and away the worst players on my team.

Traded CMC away in dynasty (ppr) for Bijan and Shaheed.

Think seeing Ekeler and Kupp (to an extent) age on the team made me cash in some chips. Life comes at you fast.

I predominantly went with early QBs this year. That would have been fine with Allen, Hurts, Lamar, but it really burned me on Mahomes (my favorite player and most taken QB) and Burrow. Some mid and late QBs were studs like Dak, Purdy and Love. Baker and Goff did well too. So it seems like good QBs were drafted all over the board this past year, and it was just a matter of not getting the wrong ones.

Also that term "RB Deadzone" didn't seem to come to fruition for those mid round RBs. Rachaad, James Cook, Pacheco, Monty and B-Rob were all great picks this past year.

It seems like any particular draft strategy (zero RB, hero RB, QB early, QB late) will work or not work depending on how the year plays out with injuries and other factors. Doesn't seem like there is one blanket strategy that works every time.

Seems like when it comes to drafting, it's best to go with the best value picks at the time, as well as addressing positional needs. And that zero RB works best if you are the only person in the draft doing it, otherwise you are taking weaker WRs and giving up value else where.

I think you’ll be happy with that in 2-3 years. May still not feel that great next season. But most rankings have either Bijan ahead of CMC or basically even.

Unfortunately, seems like we might get at least another year of bonehead Smith in Atlanta. Hope they miss the playoffs and Blank fires Smith.

QB - I had Hurts in all 3 of my playoff teams (5 total tms) and I played against Allen in both finals that i made, so I'm not sure that fading top QBs is that good a strat

Deadzone RB - None of Rachaad, James Cook, Monty, or BRob were going in the deadzone... they were going like 6th rd at the earliest, which is the tail end of the deadzone, mostly in the 7th or later, which is out of the deadzone, which is rds 3-6 (i can't remember White's ADP so maybe he was a bit earlier, but I'm sure of the rest)

Hero RB and 0 RB to me are the 2 best strategies by a decent margin. with a preference for early QB where possible (Hurts or Allen in late 2nd or Lamar 4th this year)

Agree with your last point, it's important to pivot depending on your draft. I'm rarely in drafts where most people are over valuing WRs and under valuing RBs

It's all just 80% luck (draft, injuries), and 20% effort (scouring the waivers rabidly, hoping something sticks like Puka or Kyren).

Edit: okay maybe 70/20 with 10% lineup decisions.

Obviously waivers plays a huge part in fantasy success but the key is to jump on guys the week before every idiot with a fantasy column talks about them.

Benches should be filled with lotto tickets and not backup QBs, TEs or half a dozen WR4s

A little cliche, but I like the statement takes skill to make the playoffs and luck to win the ship. Dynasty also weighted more towards skill than redraft.

Byes are also so damn important. Basically removing a flip from the equation.

Game selection helps too. 2p2 league much tougher than my home league.

Hopefully no one has week 18 sweats.

Outside of Kyren/Puka, the other big pickup was McBride after Ertz got traded.

Happened to grab McBride one week before Andrews’s injury in my 8 man league. Helped propel me to the win.

So what's round 1 next year?

CMC, Reek, Jefferson, Ceedee, Chase, Kyren, Kamara, St-Brown, Achane, Etienne, Gibbs, AJ Brown

with Barkley, Breece Hall, Bijan all showing up in the tail there some percent of the time?


Think we're gonna see lots of WR/WR/QB teams next year

Kyren will not be a first round pick

Really?

My top 12 in PPR is something like

CMC
JJ
CeeDee
Reek
Chase
ARSB
Breece
Kyren
JT
AJB
G Wilson
Puka

Gibbs, Bijan, Saquon, Etienne, Rachaad, Keenan (maybe) etc. all in the convo for late first/early 2nd.

There will be a lot to watch for.

Will Higgins stay in Cincy?

If the Rams don't add anyone significant to the backfield, Kyren will definitely be a first rounder. And even if they do, Kyren probably still getting 60-75% of the work. McVay and Stafford trust him 100%.

I love Gibbs, but his weekly floor makes me iffy on taking him in the first. Monty isn't going anywhere. Gibbs will still have a great ceiling though. Ben Johnson leaving will also make me a little iffy, depending on his replacement.

If Arthur Smith is still in Atlanta, I won't have any Bijan.

What happens with all of the FA running backs? There are a lot of them. This 2024 RB class is not that great. We won't see any first rounders in the real life draft.

On the flipside, the 2024 WR class is stacked. Where will guys like MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, etc. go in the real life and fantasy drafts?

What happens with the Mia backfield? Mostert and Achane will be high variance and expensive.

Nico and Tank Dell should be in the mix in rounds 2-4.

I'll still have Allen/Hurts/Lamar in the 2nd/3rd rounds of 1QB. Mahomes TBD. Guys like Fields, AR, Kyler, etc. should be nice values.

Who's going to be throwing the ball to JJ? Plus his injury history? I'm passing (pun intended) unless they somehow get Penix. Even then, rookie QB etc.

Good chance Cousins will be back, I think. Not sure on his recovery timeline, however.

I don't think he has a injury history. He played all games his sophomore and junior seasons at LSU, and before this year, he had played 50/50 games in the NFL.

Yeah, I think Cousins is their best option. They also saw what life was like without him. JJ has also publicly supported Cousins multiple times.

Also fading AJB or at least trading him mid-season for max value.

ESPN standard PPR

Weeks 3-9 (7 weeks) 181.7 pts ÷ 7 = 25.96 pts per game

Week 10 bye

Weeks 11-17 (7 weeks) 86.2 pts ÷ 7 = 12.31 pts per game

He will get you to the playoffs, but he will disappoint you in the playoffs.

Good point. Guess it's recency bias on my part. But there was talk of him just sitting out the rest of the year when Cousins got hurt and they were looking iffy to make the playoffs.

Can't handicap injuries tho.

Yeah, I really try not to let past injuries affect my picks.

But one guy who I am worried about is Christian Watson. He’s missed quite a bit of time his first two seasons, and a lot of it seems to be soft tissue.

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Smaller back, Rams probably draft/acquire someone to share the backfield if Zach Evans isn't going to work, touchdown count seems like a clear regression candidate. Sure, I could see him sneaking into the back end, I won't be touching with a bargepole though

If he ends up anywhere good, you will be the favorite in the league next season.