Hey everyone, I have some general questions about winrates, variance, game selection....if anyone wanted to help me out, or point me in the right direction it'd be much appreciated. I'm a poker player, maybe I could give info in exchange.

In case anyone is talkative now:

1) How many buy in's is a good bankroll for 50/50 leagues, small field tourneys, big field tourneys...
2) What is a reasonable roi small stakes, mid stakes....
3) Are games/tourneys notciably softer on weekends?
4) What are the major sources of data people are using?
5) Recommendations for literature, blogs, writers...

Thanks again

The games can have a lot of variance depending on the stakes you play. For bankroll I personally won't go higher than 5% per day. Most of my play is all tournaments as the 50/50 scores to cash are usually around the same as tournament but the max win is capped. Sure someone will say I am wrong and it's why most people don't want to post ideas. Win rates are hard to predict at tournaments,one or two good wins make a large chunk of my yearly results. Grinding cash head to head, smaller wins may be possible but not my style. For literature I recommend bales book on baseball. Research is rotogrinders or rotowire for pay. Fangraphs is free to look up individual players like all the starting pitchers for the day. Good luck

Looks like not much action here but I don't mind talking to myself. Just started DFS post allstar game. Struck out first two days. Scored 110 day two but needed ~123 in the double ups. Looks like the pros put in the same computer generated lineup about 100 times. Gonna be tough to beat. Of course not having Shoemaker costly. Got almost even today with Hamels/Fulmer/Tomlin/Gray as my throwers.

haven't played yet with rockies at home. Not sure what to do tomorrow. A rockies stack is oh so expensive...especially if you want fernandez against the phillies Think I'll practice with low price Double ups and shoot for the moon in a few tournies. GL everyone.


Forgot to say I was going for a fairly big score today with Jay Bruce up in the ninth. Wild pitch, Hamilton scores. Was already counting my money from Jay Bruce GS. Lots of close calls/bad beats. Should be fun.

Have started playing a bunch in the past month, got 4/3468 last night (damn those extra inning games), and 1/169 in a GPP a few weeks ago. Still trying to tweak my playstyle, buyins, entries, and such.

Would've been a great night, 59/1387 with Hill as my SP, what could've been in that one too lol

Rockies at home are a tough thing to gauge. All depends on if there's any other good stacks or things to aim for, and how many lineups you want to throw in different. Think Rockies will be an obvious play, and Rays will be a nice stack since they tend to crush LHP.

Thought I would only play weekends but a good day yesterday has me hooked. Went with two tourny lineups...One with a rockies stack and no Fernandez and one with Fernandez and faded Rockies game. Cash went with Fernandez and one rockie. You had a great day yesterday. Now more addicted than me. I was thinking 100 for cash and 150 for tournies, but looks like you need even more for the score.

I'd agree with the other poster that said 5% or less of bankroll in play per day.
10% ROI is reasonable goal.
I don't think there is a big difference. For me personally, Monday and Wednesday are my best days, Sunday my worst.

Early weather makes it seems like lots of scattered storms with possible PPD, which will definitely make it more interesting once it gets closer when we get a better idea

So many games today. So easy to love a lineup then 5 minutes later find what you think are improvements. Mincashed with my Fernandez tournies and struckout with the rockies stack so pretty much a wash yesterday. Right back to even in my 4 day career. Will go with what's working and fade the rockies again today. My biggest back and forth is Keuchel or no Keuchel. Am I being seduced by the past or is he really starting to find his form. Right now he's in the lineup but not sure I can keep my hands off for 3 hours. GL

He's always been a home/road kind of guy, Valencia 7/13 off of him, Khris has 4 HR in last 4 games, not the biggest fan of starting him imo (Semien at 2200 when he's 6/15 against him!!)

Also had a Fernandez/Rizzo/Upton and Kluber/Rizzo/Davis lineups last night and didnt cash, sucks bubbling all your lineups lol

Three in a row mincashing tournaments. Pretty sure that's not good. Not so good with death or glory baseball lineups. Can't resist value plays. Work to be done. Going with Stroman early lineup. Death 1 Glory 0 probably.

Was looking at this at midnight last night with a Quintana win still a possibility.

Of course 2 minutes later Pujols hit his 2nd HR and the 40k turned into 1k really fast. So ****ing brutal.

Scored my best so far 147.3

Beat... it was a freeroll I entered this morning and rostered Michael Saunders along with 10% others. He didn't play and I never corrected it.

Am alive with 136 with LUcroy, Ortiz, Desmond, and Beltran stil going.

For those playing gpp's, this is a decent listen...

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/...tournaments%2F

Lucroy, Desmond, Beltran all homer. 192. I guess more HR yesterday than all season. Lots of high scores. 13th in tourny. Thanks for the podcast. Will give listen.

Hi guys,

I started playing MLB DFS from scratch this season, I suck at it, but love it (UK guy here).

My question is, I kind of feel weird rostering two players from the same game on opposing teams. In soccer, this can be a big downside, but on larger slates I wonder how often it is appropriate to do so? Is it literally about how one dude will do vs an opposing pitcher (we might only get one or two atbats Vs that targeted pitcher if circumstances are bad).

Further to this, how often is it correct to have two pitchers from the same match? To me this seems counter-intuitive, as the W can make up 10-20% of a pitchers total score, however the winner last night in the Slurve (Draft Kings) had NYY and HOU pitchers.

As a noob, I find predicting pitching to be the hardest thing. I learned about SIERA and try to base my decisions on the true skill level of the pitcher. Does anyone have any kind advice to offer about selecting pitchers on a given night? What is the expected return ratio wise to break even for a pitcher?

Two hitters from the same game on opposing teams is fine.

Two pitchers from the same game is fancy play syndrome. There are cases when it may be appropriate but your # of wins ceiling is capped. (I assume you mean DK scoring.)

Pitching is the easiest thing to predict. The correlation from predicted to actual for the best models is somewhere in the 0.30s. The correlation from predicted to actual for hitters is about half of that.

Friendly fyi, seeing a lot of speculation Cashner might not be with the Padres by the time tonight's game starts (granted, again). Can't imagine the possible replacements are very good.

Anyone might be an upgrade on cashner also why does anyone want to even trade for cashner is beyond mind boggling

Word is the Jays are looking at him as spot starter/reliever

Wow grandal stolen base just cost me 7k

I'm sorry that happened, but so did any random hit/non-hit that happened in the early games.

I understand I'm just venting cause I watched it live and how does grandal get a sb lol. Still got 6th in the payoff pitch

Yeah that sucks, I would have been sweating it live and felt that same way, sorry again but still congrats on the nice finish!

Thanks. The other sweat was if they were gonna rule it catchers indifference or a sb. Porcello gave me a nice outing yesterday had him in most lineups .

That feeling when David Price goes from 5 K, 3H, 0 ER thru 7 to giving up 4 ER in the bottom of the 8th with the Red Sox's up 4-0 costing you 12 pts for the ERs and missing out on another 12 pts for the W. Bye bye 5K. Had another Price lineup finish at 239 as well.



Sigh