I take full responsibility for jinxing Wacha, my bad guys

lol had my lineup set with Wacha/Pineda on my phone and then forgot to enter it into any contests.
successful fade imo

It is, but what would the rationale be for using him tonight in Fenway vs Boston?

I wouldn't for his price, but the Redsox haven't exactly been hitting well, even at home.

pineda would have been a truly terrible play tonight

Red Sox have one of the worst offenses in the AL this year.
bottom 3 in wOBA and bottom 4 in runs scored... tonights lineup featured Bradley Jr, Carp, and Holt so not your typical deep Sox lineup from the past few years.
Not saying Pineda was a great option, but def not the worst.

approx league avg WOBA vs righties

slightly above league avg WOBA at home

the three guys you named are fine against righties

didn't even consider pineda

was sitting 2nd in the perfect game with 1 game left and for 1 fleeting second honestly believed i had a shot

then along came grenkie

now i'm just watching each strikeout knock me down. currently down to 4th with 8 of those ****ers within 13 points of me. i guess i'm just rooting for wacha to get hit by a train. i suppose that'll make me feel better

agree 100% with nutshot though. pineda never should have been an option

SRM = shark on a heater?

lol what an absolutely soulcrushing inning. from 4th all the way down to 10th and assuming the win isn't blown i'm gonna finish 12th. i will hate the phillies and michael wacha til my dying day

edit: i want to be pissed that greinke's still gonna pitching in the 8th but i guess it's really the only chance i have left

edit2: OMG FIRST PITCH HOMER! back up to 7th for now. plz plz plz plz blow the lead, bullpen

you are right that the 3 guys i mentioned are not terrible vs RHP.
but the Sox lineup today had only 3 players in it that are sporting a wOBA over .300 this year vs RHP: Napoli, Bradley, and Holt.
the rest of them have been fairly awful.

i know small size and all, but DFS is the epitome of small sample size right?
So while its true that Pineda might not have been a great option tonight (not arguing with you on that since u obv are much better at DFS than I am), the Red Sox offense can't be the biggest factor in coming to that conclusion. maybe his price was ridiculous (dont remember, the 1 lineup i tentatively had him that i didnt submit wasnt full yet)

Those are some legit points. The biggest problem that I have with a Pineda pick is that he's basically living off of his name, which he created over a slightly abbreviated 2011 season, where he ran a little hot. Also, with a pitcher returning from an injury, it's always best to take a wait & see approach.

Also, Bogaerts is underrated as a hitter, imo. You add him to Ortiz, Pedroia, Napoli, Pierzynski (and as nutshot said Carp isn't bad vs RHP), you still have an above average lineup to contend with in a hitters park.

I might not mind Pineda as a hero play in an alternate lineup that I didn't have a significant investment in. Say a second lineup in the Check Swing tonight that I mixed in with a few $1-$5 qualifiers. Nothing wrong with that. If you're riding a 10% bankroll investment on Pineda tonight, though, I have to question your judgement.

if i remember right, pineda was over 10k, which is just horrendous value

Fwiw, I can count on one hand the number of times I've looked at 2014 stats so far this year & they were all for players with little to no previous time in the bigs. Roenis Elias, for example. It's April 23rd bro, nothing but noise to look, at this point in the season.

$10k on the dot, which yeah makes it a lot worse. However, the prime low end options tonight, Tyson Ross & Jake Odorizzi, both sucked a dick. I should know I had both of them in my lineup. So, if you did take Pineda, it didn't hurt you from the standpoint of you could of dropped down to a cheaper pitcher & been better off.

Ya thats pretty awful.
I guess my only point is that the Red Sox have been mediocre this year, so Im not really worried about starting guys against them at this point.

When Pedroia/Ortiz/Nava/etc remember how to hit then ill be a lot more hestitant to play SP vs them.

(fwiw i had like 10 pitchers ranked ahead of him tonight, so not like im here trying to pimp Pineda)

lol ya i get that.

i know you can't predict when slumps begin or end, but if a specific lineup has been terrible lately does that effect your decision making at all in regards to pitchers vs them? not Sox specifically, just in general

sure but that's just one factor in a sea of them

On the flip side I've got a lot of rules. Unless my thinking changes I'd probably never throw a road SP (or many home SP's for that matter) @Fenway, @NYY, @Col (duh), @Tor, @Bal, @Tex, (R) @Cin, and a few other situations that are slightly less obvious. Is this too rigid? I don't think so but I'm curious what others think.

How much time do you guys put into research? I got into DFS late in NBA reg season and had some minor success. It seemed like even if I didn't roster a highly owned player who went off, they were at least on my radar. I knew hardly anything about the NBA.

The opposite is true for baseball. I've followed baseball religously since I was like 8, yet nearly everyday I see some highly owned player I did not even consider blowing up.

Baseball production seems much more difficult to predict than NBA production because all "playable" players get roughly the same amount of playing time.

Is there more variance in MLB dfs than NBA dfs in your opinion? Is a good players edge higher in NBA or MLB?

MLB is much higher variance. I personally think a good players edge is higher in MLB, but others may disagree.
The research question is tough. I probably spend an hour a day during the week. But I may dump 6 or 8 hours in a day on a weekend if i'm trying to integrate something new.

also, i spend a lot of time looking at LUs after lock. seeing what kind of strategies would have worked better/worse than what i used.

Rolling Mike Bolsinger out today!

HU4ROLLZ

Not trolling either