Condia isn't the best hoops player to begin with, but regardless, I'm not a huge fan of that specific play. The idea has some merit. If you look at the best players' lineups you're bound to learn something. But Condia isn't some sort of wizard. He just saw that Marion was playing a poor defense in the Wolves & that he had played poorly in recent games, which drove his price down and made him a bargain. Then Marion went off without any particular rhyme or reason. Not much more to it than that.

he is by the far the best hoops player in DFS, and no one is even remotely near his level. He's not the best NFL player, I will agree. But it's undisputed that he is the best NBA player in the industry, and by a wide wide margin.

I'm far more worried when I see PrimordialAA, Primetime420, and a few others than Condia. Nothing about Condia's lineups are particularly difficult to figure out; they're just good. I think other managers take more time setting their lineups & take more chances. Hell, Condia can't spend that much time setting his lineups, he has to spend all of that time registering for 1,000+ contests a day Lol!

Yeah now I know you're crazy. PrimordialAA is not even a top 100 nba dfs player, yet alone someone you should be more afraid of than condia.

Prime is solid but isn't he mainly a tournament player? Condia barely even plays gpps

Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums

condia
csu
dink

+ a few others that don't play as much volume

What metrics are you using to make your evaluations? I'm going by the results that I see from the contests that I enter, which are mainly 50/50s $1 to $10 & selected triple ups, 10x, gpps & satellites. I use to play steps contests as well, but steps contests fill about 50% of the time at step 3 & above (for NBA) and are the most shark-invested waters you can swim in.

PrimordialAA is damn good. Condia got extremely lucky with Marion last night, and so did you apparently. I'm not judging off of results. Are you?

I do hours of research on my own, and if I'm not the most up-to-date NBA player, then I'm real close. I'll notice whether a manager missed a play that they shouldn't have or not; regardless of the results. Condia does play a lot of gpps, satellites, and other large player fields. He doesn't take a lot of chances, other managers do. They do more scouting & they set better lineups, imo. Condia is probably a top a lot of leaderboard based on volume alone. But, if there is a contest that has 9/10 players registered & I'm trying to decide whether or not I want to sit in it, then I'm a lot more comfortable with seeing Condia's name there over some of the other regs.

Also, what is your handle on DK? I'm thepr0phet.

I've got 2 months playing NBA DFS under my belt now, and I can say that I couldn't disagree with this more. I'm not saying that I'm without a doubt correct here, mostly because I know how intelligent you are FE & I don't like to take stands like that vs highly intelligent ppl. But consider this...

The room for error is so small in the NBA. Most of the time (at like 90% or higher) you cannot cash with even one player below 20 points. You really need all of your players to score 25 points or more (using DK's scoring system). You're allowed $50k to spend on 8 players or $6250 per player. 97% or more of the players who average 25 points or higher cost $6250 or higher, so you are always dipping into uncertain waters with players $5k & under. When they don't play well you lose, and even when they play well if all of your players score 25 exactly you total 200 & that's an 0 for night. If they score exactly 30 you total 240 & that's an 0 for night most of the time as well.

So you have no room for your mid level to best players to not meet expectation because they sit 8 min of the 4th quarter due to a blowout or whatever. Basically everything has to go right every time. There are less games to pick from on a nightly basis than in baseball as well. Not to mention, when an opponent has a player in a baseball game that goes to extra innings it means he might see 1 or 2 more at bats. Many times that will result in lowering his score from that hitter recording an out. In basketball that almost always means the opponent's player picks up an extra 2 points to maybe an extra 10 or more if he's a star player. It definitely adds more variance. The sitting 4th quarters angle of it alone adds more variance. When was the last time you saw Joe Giradi pinch hit for Robinson Cano in the 8th inning because the Yankees were down 7-1?

Hoops really isn't that far off from the NFL in terms of variance, imo.

I mean you certainly don't need everyone to score 25+ nor can you not cash with a 0. Yesterday in a $50 matrix on DK I had a player that put up somewhere between 12-15 (forget exactly) and ended up finishing 1/16 vs some of the best of the best. The guy that finished 2nd had a 0.

I know this is somewhat cherry picking and doesn't apply to winning GPPs (obviously) but feel it's pertinent to this convo.

I'm BernieKozar on most sites.

Bouta sweep this **** even with vucerigvc beibg a bithc

King durant/harden/terrence

rmt, you're right. But here is a better illustration for what I'm saying. Constructing a baseball lineup often times matchups would dictate that my money be spent on hitters X, Y, & Z which would leave me fumbling to find a "useable" 2nd baseman or Catcher or SS even. I can pick a best of the worst, cheapest player available at Catcher or 2b, and it not hurt me one iota. 10% of my opponents will use a Catcher or 2b that isn't even in the starting lineup that day. 10-20% more of my opponents will use a Catcher or 2b with an atrocious matchup that they just aren't aware of. The rest will use a Catcher or 2b with a reasonable matchup, but severely cost themselves by not being able to afford the hitters X, Y, & Z that I've honed in on for that day.

So when my bottom feeder Catcher or 2nd baseman put up a -0.25 for the day, it doesn't hurt me at all. 30-40% of my opponents received 1 or fewer points from their Catcher or 2nd baseman, and my X, Y, & Z hitters raked, so I've put up 15 points from all four positions, anyways. And as always with baseball contests, if your starting pitcher does the work, you'll be looking pretty.

With basketball it's true that you can have a guy give you under 25 or even 20 and still be ok (as long as you have a premium player stand on his head with a Kevin Love-like performance & preferably not a premium player that everyone had pegged for a big night). But you sure as hell can't go in with the mindset of I'm going to spend $47k on 7 players & then just take whatever with my last $3k. That's the quickest way possible to take an 0 for in hoops. So by making all 8 players critical, the variance goes up because someone is bound to have a bad night. In baseball you can still win if only 5/9 of your players play well (provided one of those 5 is your starter). That lowers the variance. Say, I like Miguel Cabrera, Jay Bruce, and Shin Soo-Choo as my 3 best hitters for the night. If one of them goes 0-4, I'm still ok if the other 2 do well.

Now, say you pick Love, Curry, and Zbo as your top 3 plays of the night, and Curry only gives you 26 points. How many contests are you going to cash in? 50/50s & h2hs even? You're likely screwed at that point. There is no room for error in hoops.

I don't want to discredit you or offend you because I've read your posts itt & I would label you as a good but not great player. That said, from 10/30 to 12/25 I played every day in damn near every $1 to $10 50/50 that was offered on DK. I played in the $1, $2, $5 & sometimes $11 gpps. I put $12k in play over 2 months, so you know that I was putting $150 or more in play every day. Always 40 contests and sometimes over 100.

I never remember seeing your name in any of my contests. I don't remember seeing you on Fanduel this summer for baseball either. Oddly enough, most of the best players are good in all sports.

So my question for you is, where is this evaluation coming from on Condia? Are you seeing him in 30 of your 50 contests daily & seeing the lineups that he constructs & comparing those vs the other top regs? Cuz bro I'm not seeing you in my contests, at least not in the money where I'm focused on my results and what other players' names come up the most often.

And I don't mean to put Condia down (or you for that matter). He is a strong player. He's just not the best imo. I know that rotogrinders has him rated as the #1 grinder for the year, and true he is a volume KING. But, I'd bet you $100 that if you took an average of Condia's lineup score this season, it wouldn't be top 5 on DK.

Or I'll go you one better. I'll sign up for a $5 h2h contest with Condia every day for the next 100 days & I'll say that he can't muster 53 wins vs me. We can bet $100 on that.

Gofoofighters is pretty legit in nba.

I agree with you, I'm not a great player by any means. I'd say slightly above average. That being said, I really don't play stakes this low and I prefer H2Hs because they are less variance than 50/50s.

http://rotogrinders.com/profiles/BernieKozar


Why Condia is the best:
http://rotogrinders.com/rankings/ind...all/basketball

lineup on DK had Knight/Sanders/Durant/dmc. offset by getting crushed on fan duel

Solid plyr profile, but I already knew you were solid. All that Condia link, which I had already seen, proves is that he has the biggest bankroll & plays the most. It definitely indicates that his lineups are near the best, but this in no way confirms that his lineups are the best.

Imo, I think Primetime420, Al_Smizzle, CSURAMM88, DraftCheat, maxdalury, crackmonkey83, & shanksalot all set better lineups than Condia. Guys like dinkpiece, ehafner, AveryBradley, & a25smith set comparable lineups.

That's heady company, though. I'm not revealing anything earth-shattering here, either. And I'll fully admit this much, Condia & all of the players listed above know more about the construction of hoops lineups than I do. In addition, they are more knowledgeable of the NBA player universe & all other aspects like matchups, coaching tendencies, etc. But by default Condia is giving up a significant part of his edge to me by deliberately choosing to focus on optimal registeration during the last 20 min of the registration period over the setting an optimal lineup. I love that, God bless him! Because if he wanted to, he could scale back his registration and focus more on his lineup, but he chooses to play a risk-adverse style and look for safer plays like the Matrix play vs the Wolves. All that was, was a value play w/ a favorable matchup.

I've already said way too much considering this is a public forum & I'm giving away free advice. I'm not the best hoops player, but I more than hold my own at the $10 & under stakes. Hell, I'd have to in order to get $12k in play, on a single deposit, in a little under 8 weeks at those stakes. Xmas day showed me my place with hoops, though, and I'm definitely going to scale back & start up prep for my real sport: baseball! Pitchers & catchers can't report soon enough!

Since you've got the roll, why not put down a friendly $50 wager on the Condia hu prop though? I likely won't play every day, so I'm thinking 81 matches & I'm saying that Condia can't get 43 wins against me. Your word is good with me, if you want to take the action... and if you want double or nothing when baseball season comes, I'll give you that Condia can't get 41 wins against me out of 100 matches. Hell, I'll even give you +115 on that & we can raise the stakes to $250, if you'd like that action as well.


Edit: Yes, I'm a little cocky. I called myself thepr0phet after all, Lol!

ive been playing nba for a week and am 3-1 v. condia/icuror in h2h

obviously im the goat

Wait, Condia has Marion in play when he went off for like 34? If so he really is the best.

Well... he's the best regardless and he wins more than 43 times every single time. You'd be a fool to take anyone up on that challenge.

Man DK support is too good. Accidentally signed up for the 270 high roller last night about 45 minutes before tip. They unregistered me 2 minutes after I emailed them. Turns out I think I would have shipped it because my team put a a 343.75 and won basically everything it entered

yea. DK is super good about unregistering stuff. Just send them the ID# and it's basically instant. An unregister button would obv be great tho.

I'll offer you the same prop bet, if you'd like the action.

holiday/lawson
foye/reke
chandler/brewer
dirk/brow
hawes

Wall/Holiday
Foye/Vince
Brewer/Ariza
Griffin/Hickson
Pekovic

lol dirk hurt 1 min into the game

This is in development right now, hopefully we'll have it out this month.