Yeah, these guys are all too high:

And these guys are all too low:

Same league, here is my team:

C Kurt Suzuki
1B Albert Pujols
1B Joey Votto
1B David Ortiz
2B Brian Roberts
3B Jhonny Peralta
SS Jose Reyes
SS Ben Zobrist
OF Matt Kemp
OF Bobby Abreu
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Adam Jones

SP Chad Billingsley
SP A.J. Burnett
SP Andy Pettitte
SP Joe Saunders
SP Ubaldo Jimenez
SP Max Scherzer
RP Joe Nathan
RP Jonathan Broxton
RP Scott Downs
RP Heath Bell
RP Mike MacDougal

My keeper thoughts (make yours before reading mine):

Sanchez-I like him. I actually thought I was higher on him than most. Maybe not.

Sizemore-I've moved him up throughout the season. #1? I can't see him above any of my top 25 guys. What's his ceiling? Felipe Lopez with a couple more HRs and/or SBs? I've never been one to overrate guys just because they have MLB jobs. I have guys like Alex Avila & Ian Desmond on my do not draft list to keep from drafting the next Chris Dickerson or Brent Lillibridge.

Mejia-I know most people have him a lot higher. I saw a couple scouting reports that he's still just a 1 pitch thrower at this point which scared me. I'll let somebody else draft him.

Craig & Heisey-I need to read more on. I have in my head they're both finished product/AAAA types which may not be accurate.

Ramos-I don't know. At some point the power has to start showing up in games and the walk rate is scary.

Lough-I've got him ranked 140. He's starting to get old to have less than half a season at AA. Another terrible walk rate and many think he's a 4th OF.

Pujols, Kemp, Bills, Nathan & Reyes. I think Nathan-Broxton & Reyes-Sizemore are very close though.

IF-Pujols
OF-Kemp. Sizemore a close second.
SP-Billingsly. I dont see how you can go any other way.
RP-Broxton. Might as well take the younger, NL player.
Extra-Reyes. To me this is a no brainer if he's healthy. If you have to make the decision early, you can argue Votto, Zobrist, or Sizemore.

Is Sizemore's ceiling really any lower than Josh Bell? I'm all for taking super toolsy high ceiling types, but there really aren't many of those on this list. The ones that are are so far out, you will have plenty of opportunity to acquire similar talent one way or another.

Here's another question. What does Sizemore (or any player, for that matter) have to do to net you a Josh Bell caliber prospect? If he's a rookie that hits slightly below replacement level, does that get it done? Would you even trade a rookie that hits slightly below replacement level for a Josh Bell caliber prospect?

Yes, I think Bell has a higher ceiling than Sizemore. I'd rather have a middle of the order switch hitting 3B who can hit for power and a decent avg. Than a .300 hitting 2B who might get 15 HR's. It's not like Bell is that far away either. Nobody's blocking him. He could be the Opening Day 3B.

The 2nd question is tough to answer. Young player for prospect trades don't really happen in my league. Generally people are tight with their prospects and young players unless they are adding a piece to win now.

Farm players don't have to be elevated until the season after they lose their rookie eligibility. Last year Porcello was the only guy elevated early. Hanson, Beckham, Price, Andrus, McCutchen & even Jason Motte (holds league) stayed on the farm all year. So there aren't many scenarios where I draft Sizemore or another rookie and can trade them for a prospect in 2010.

Thanks guys. I think the Broxton-Nathan choice is a tough one, as it's difficult to pass on a closer like Nathan who has been extremely consistent in his role for the last six years. What may decide it for me, is this:

Nathan: November 22, 1974
Broxton: June 16, 1984

I have to keep 8 out of this sorry group. No costs associated or anything, just keep 8. OPS, Hitters Ks, K:BB and Losses.

Bay
Beltran
JD Drew
Delgado
M Reynolds
M Tejada
Vmart
Hideki
Ian Stewart
Votto
Tulo
Weeks
Wells
Michael Young
Jose Lopez

Floyd
Hamels
Happ
Felix
Hudson
Kazmir
Lidge
Morrow
Sheets
Volquez
Jered Weaver
F Cordero

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I'm leaning Bay, Beltran, Tulo, Vmart, Reynolds, Felix and then I'm lost. Thoughts?

I'd add Votto and Hamels as your last two.

Votto's numbers were very good when he was healthy last year. He had a lot of physical/mental problems which I believe prevented him from really being noticed as a top-tier 1B.

Keeping six hitters out of the bunch is the right move. Always easier to find pitching in the draft or on the wire, especially closers. You get a C/1B, 1B, OF, OF, SS and whatever Reynolds is (1B/3B?), so that leaves you just looking for a 2B and OF/Util. Makes your draft very easy.

I'd stick with Hamels as your second pitcher. Don't let the couple bad starts in the playoffs fool you, I think he is still capable of putting up excellent numbers.

Wow, yea no idea how I left Votto out, hes a certain keep. I was leaning Hamels as well, but I really like Happ so I figured I'd check.

Happ isn't even close to Hamels. He got super lucky last year and Hamels got very unlucky. If you look at peripherals Hamels was pretty much the same pitcher in 09 as 08 and Happ is just a good 4th starter who got lucky to have such a nice ERA. Plus Happ is a year older than Hamels.

Should I be feeling good with Vmart, Votto, Tulo, Reynolds, Bay, Beltran, Felix and Hamels or am I likely to be one of the lesser teams in a 12 team league?

Your keepers aren't spectacular, but I wouldn't be unhappy at all with your squad. My biggest worry is that Reynolds won't replicate the magical season he just had.

The league most certainly isn't won or lost just yet, even if someone in your league has several of the top players as their keepers. As with most leagues, they're typically won in the late rounds by finding the hidden gems, such as this past year with Zobrist, Carpenter, Hill, Morales, Bailey, Franklin, etc.

great thread guys-glad i found it.

i'm in a competitive 10 team NL only auction keeper league. i tookover a team in spring 2009.
keepers cost $ at auction from previous year, FA cost $10
standard 5x5 $260
start: C 1B 2B 3B SS 3 OF 2 UT 7 P
can keep up to 7 players. inflation is high, especially with the elite SP

options for keepers:
C Miguel Montero 10
1B A Gonzalez 31 (kept at 26 in '09 but price increases 5 in 2nd kept year)
1B/OF Garrett Jones 10
1B/2B/3B Martin Prado 10
2B/3B Ian Stewart 6
SS Alcides Escobar 10
3B/1B Pablo Sandoval 15 (kept at 10 in '09)
OF Matt Kemp 16 Cody Ross 2 Dexter Fowler 1 (kemp was kept at 11 in 2009)
Others: Jason Heyward 10 Michael Taylor 10 Eric Young 10-all speculative late season adds
P Johnny Cueto 6, Kawakami 8, Chris Volstad 11, Madison Bumgarner 10, rest are awful
*bold = top 6 choices atm
my team got hit hard by injuries early so i made some speculative trades for keepers including getting Stewart and Jordan Zimmermann (#$#$#$).
obviously my pitching keepers suck, but i have some sweet hitting options. kemp and kung fu panda are elite. stewart has amazing potential value at 6 with 2B eligibility. ross provides solid production at 2 and fowler could give me 50 sb with full playing time. if montero gets the full time gig at C then he could be another nice one at 10.

any thoughts are appreciated.

I'd have to think Gonzalez is worth $31 in a 10 team NL Only. I'm not too excited about Ross even though he's cheap. I think you have to keep Heyward.

I keep
1B-Gonzalez $31
2B-Stewart $6
SS-Escobar $10
3B-Sandoval $15
OF-Kemp $16
OF-Fowler $1 (but I'd expect closer to 20-30 SB)
OF-Heyward $10

That leaves a good amount of money to add 2 big bats at UTIL and load up on cheap SP. Your lineup should be a favorite in SB. With 2 more bats, you should be solid in the hitting cats.

Montero, Kawakami, Cueto, Prado & Jones are close behind. If you can hold out long enough to see if SF plans to put Bumgarner in their rotation Opening Day, he's a must keep.

I haven't done mocks too often in the past, but it looks like our draft is being pushed up to January so just finished one. Hard to mock keeper auctions so just did a standard snake.

12 team 5 X 5. 20 round, no benches. How did I do?
Final Roster
Pos Name Team Pick
C Matt Wieters BAL R9 P4
1B Derrek Lee CHC R5 P4
2B Chase Utley PHI R1 P4
SS Yunel Escobar ATL R12 P9
3B Pablo Sandoval SF R4 P9
OF Matt Holliday STL R2 P9
OF Adam Lind TOR R3 P4
OF Carlos Beltran NYM R6 P9
CI Paul Konerko CHW R14 P9
MI Ian Stewart COL R10 P9
UTIL Nolan Reimold BAL R15 P4
SP Chris Carpenter STL R7 P4
SP Brandon Webb ARI R11 P4
SP Wandy Rodriguez HOU R13 P4
SP Kevin Slowey MIN R17 P4
RP Heath Bell SD R8 P9
RP Frank Francisco TEX R16 P9
P Kerry Wood CLE R18 P9
P Brett Anderson OAK R19 P4
P Barry Zito SF R20 P9

Looks about right. The only thing I don't like is how much earlier Lind was chosen over Beltran. I think that if Lind is warranting a 4th round pick (which he probably will), then Beltran should be a 3rd rounder. Getting him in the sixth is excellent value.

I don't really like Holliday in the second round, but with 20 picks already off the board your hand might be forced into picking and outfielder, unfortunately.

Utley at 4th is excellent. Hanley, Pujols and A-Rod were the top 3? How did the rest of the first round play out?

Brett Anderson in 19th round is nice.

1st Round went:

R1 P1 Dodgers Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA
R1 P2 square pigs Pujols, Albert 1B STL
R1 P3 Chuck Norris Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY
R1 P4 mblax10 Utley, Chase 2B PHI
R1 P5 Flaming Goat Cheese Braun, Ryan OF MIL
R1 P6 Fantasy Domination Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY
R1 P7 Internet Stud Kemp, Matt OF LA
R1 P8 Come to Play Cabrera, Miguel 1B DET
R1 P9 Flatulant Friars Fielder, Prince 1B MIL
R1 P10 comedy of terrors Mauer, Joe C MIN
R1 P11 Pick FASTER!!! Howard, Ryan 1B PHI
R1 P12 gigantous buttocks Wright, David 3B NYM

I almost took Braun at #4.

Didn't really prepare so was scrambling at the start. Reyes, Tulo & A.Gonzalez were on the board when I took Holliday. Sizemore & Zimmerman were around when I took Lind.

I couldn't believe Beltran, Wieters, & Carpenter were around when I took them. Peavy was still on the board when I took Carpenter, but went before it came back to me.

I don't remember seeing any real stupid picks. Couldn't believe when I started scrolling through SP in the 18th round Anderson, Matusz, Strasburg, Cahill, Nieman, W.Davis, Porcello etc were all still around.

I was thinking the same thing. One round before Barry Zito no less.


Personally, I like Sizemore better than Lind. I also like Holliday a ton. There are a lot of scenarios where he's the #2 OF in my book.

Chone spreadsheet is available for download.

10 team, std 5x5 except 4 additional categories: doubles, triples, and Ks for hitters, and CGs for pitchers.

My 4 keepers are set: Pujols, Lincecum, Arod, and Prince, but I'd like to get my hands on Justin Upton.

Would you trade Prince for Upton straight up?

Not unless there is some kind of curious positional premium for outfielders. Upton still has a long ways to go before he's as good as Prince is now. He'll probably get there eventually, but why take the chance?

20 team league with a large amount of players kept. standard points league, h2h scoring.

my last decisions:

ja happ or david aardsma. i already have halladay/weaver/dempster/buccholz/wolf as keepers, and realize happ is not as good as his numbers last year suggest. i am leaning towards aardsma because the pool of closers is probably going to be small, but am not sure here.

for position players, my last 2 spots are down to johnny damon, ryan theriot, or jd drew. i have asdrubal cabrera as an automatic keeper already available as a SS, but i can slide him to 2b if i keep theriot (no other 2bman on my roster, but i also need to call up elvis andrus this year or else i lose him). i'm leaning towards drew and damon, but i guess it depends on where damon ends up, and another downside is that i already have ibanez/granderson/victorino and would just use both of them at the DH and UTIL spots.