most profitable spots to "solve"
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,140
i would love to be corrected on any false assumptions, & have my studies pointed in the right direction.
**taking my own range balance into consideration, is playing perfect poker literally a matter of running a fold equity calculation on a) every action on b)every board run out vs c) any given range and d) any bet size
then deciding which is most profitable for each, on average?
**its literally the same fold equity equation applied to every situation,whether it be 3bet, cbet, turn checkraise, etc isn't it?
**do i just pick any given action, (ie raising someones 2nd barrel) figure out what my opponents estimated range would be, based upon previous actions, consider what my range is in the given spot on average( in order that im not making an imbalanced move), and run the fold equity equation? then, going upon what that dictates, do the same thing on the next street with an updated range estimation?
**choosing the most common scenarios, and working my way to the least frequent, what situations would i be best with doing the math on and familiarizing myself with first?
opening ranges aside, im guessing 3b/4b/5b, cbet/ tbet/rbet, fold to cb,tb,rb, flop xr, and running them on different board textures that become more and more specific as i progress?
looking forward to any and all thoughts,
tyvm !
Last edited by LordPallidan12; 09-17-2018 at 09:15 PM.
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 16,104
No. The profitability of future scenarios needs to be thought about along with the profitability of checking or calling. While you may have an immediately profitable bet on one street it may be more profitable to check. Also, even if a bet on one (early) street isn't immediately profitable (or perhaps negative ev if viewed in isolation) the addition of money into the pot could be higher ev due to future opportunities... i.e. your opponent could have grievous deviations from balance on rivers that justify putting excessive money into the pot on the flop although you may not have the immediate fold equity on that street to justify it.
What you've stated is a good start, but unfortunately the path to maximizing ev is significantly more dynamic.
Last edited by Brokenstars; 09-17-2018 at 10:28 PM.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,140
right, fold equity alone is definitely not the complete picture. But, as far as actually being able to quantify actions in order to make more informed decisions, is that the way to go about doing so?
like what "spots" and in what ways should i be running the #'s on.
if you were a poker math professor giving poker math homework, what would you suggest researching?
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,822
I agree with everything Brokenstars wrote. If I was assigning you pokerquations homework, I would tell you to start at the end of the hand, in position, and your opponent checks to you. Now, work the given runout backwards. Did a draw hit, or miss? Did the board pair? This is the most basic value bet, obviously. But, as Broken pointed out, it gets complicated quickly.
Extra credit: same as above but for oop. (Hint, when oop chooses to bet, he bets larger).
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 16,104
Just study flops, specifically in the situations that occur the most frequently.
1. SRP vs BB
2. SB vs BB
3. 3b pot ip vs oop (btn vs co)
4. 3b pot oop vs ip (sb vs btn)
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 13,256
^ Exactly that.
You don't need to study 4-bet pots between UTG and MP immediately, as they are rare. It's the battles between late position and the blinds that come up more often.
