Quote:
Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b
**** me this is hurting my head lol
All expected value (EV) calculations are built up from the basic formulation below (in plain language):
EV for an event equals the probability the event occurred multiplied by the payout when the event occurs.
Translated to something more mathematical:
EV(event) = P(event)*Payout for event (note payout can be negative here).
Now sometimes you have multiple events that can occur and you want to know the total EV of all the events. In that case to can just add all of the EVs together like so:
EV (total) = EV (event1)+EV (event2)+EV (event3)
Where
EV (event1) = P (event1)*Payout for event1
EV (event2) = P (event2)*Payout for event2
EV (event3) = P (event3)*Payout for event3
So all Arty was trying to demonstrate is that it's easier to start identifying your events and their payouts first using normal language and translate them into math later.
Another situation that might arise is one EV equation can be a payout for a more complex equation, but let's concentrate on basic EV equations first.
Quote:
Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b
In other news, I figured out that rake has not a big effect in these situations bc most of your profit is actually won pre flop when villain folds to the jam
and of course when you shove and get called, you lose a lot so you don't pay rake anyway
you only pay rake when you get called and win
So if you use "all in expert" you can safely just take out about .5bb from the total EV profit so if it's +$2.80, subtract .25cents = $2.50 profit about.
As a buffer I'd like to take out .50cents probably so assume $2.25 profit.
I would deduct the rake from your payout in your EV equations and not your final EV total.
Quote:
Originally Posted by p0ker_n00b
Basically in the end you are risking about 90 bb's to win 4.5 bb's - I suppose this is worth the variance, +4.5bb's per hand is better than you can hope for in almost any situation.
risking 90 bb's for 1bb , however, may not be worth the variance bc of tilt factor being - EV long term
I doesn't quite work like that. The total EV of your actions for open,3bet,5bet, etc are cumulative. So if you choose to 5bet something it's because the combination of EV from opening and getting folds, opening and getting calls, 3betting and getting folds, 3betting and getting calls, 5 betting and getting folds, and 5 betting and getting calls is positive (note the individual terms don't necessarily have to be positive but at least 0 because you have the option to fold at any point which costs nothing).