Hi guys, would like to discuss variance mainly in 3-bet pots vs. LAGgy players mostly, so i'm a bit of a variance newbie but I get the general jist being that low-variance lines will be things like pot controlling top pair middle kicker, not 3-betting value hands like TT vs LP or just 3-betting in general.. and high-variance being vice versa also counting things like xRaising big draws etc. etc. (I also have a coaching video on it that I can't quite re-call but being some thing like 'low-variance is getting it in w/ KK+ AKs only, and higher variance is getting it in w/ TT+ AQ+ etc.)

So, if you are taking higher variance lines 100bbs deep (in this case 3-betting a lot vs btn steals and sb stl, also calling vs aggressive re-stealers when your on the button with hands that rate to be the best hand like AJ/KQ/99 vs 14/15%+ 3-bet) how light is considered too light to stack off post-flop? Basically, when you decide to 3-bet or call a 3-bet are you just gonna be throwing stacks around with 2nd pair? Always TP? Two over cards BDFD and gut shot? And pre-flop are you gonna 3-bet TT and fold to 4-bet in the same aggressive dynamic (LP vs blinds) and ranges are wide? I'd assume no, but is it considered bad? I wouldn't say necessarily but the variance would be massive, correct? I understand it is always very opponent dependent every time but very curious on other players takes on the all so common '3-bet pot' in agro dynamic positions and commitment thresholds.

Let me know if hand examples are needed, i'm not sure if I have too many in my database but i'm sure I could find a few if it's needed.

Cheers

Very opponent dependent. If some guy is going to let you 3bet him all day without ever 4betting you back then that's usually a good line to take. If you're playing against an aggressive reg it's better to play small ball and just take flops, than to ship 88 in a marginal spot for like 50 blinds preflop.

Early on in tournaments it's fine to play big pots and the variance that might arise from that. As you get to a couple tables left in the tournament, it's best not to play as many big pots if you can avoid it. For example in a big-field MTT last sunday with 15 left, I raised AQ from the button and the SB reraised and I just flatted my 60BB stack instead of 4betting AQ which is probably way ahead of his 3bet range. I was prepared to call a street or two in position, and if I lose a small pot it's a lot better than flipping needlessly if he had TT or worse AK.

What? You completely lost me like halfway into your post when you started asking like six questions in a row, and not because of your vocabulary.

The correct answer to what I think is your question is to learn to recognize when your opponent is on one of his standard bluffing lines and take the correct line which shuts him down. When your opponent is on a bluff or a semi-bluff you don't even need cards to take the pot from him if you just throw out the bet that automatically triggers his fold button or his call/check/fold on the next street button for him. Which every LAG player has unless he's just spewing. This is what you do when you're not in a hand, you pay attention to him and try to pick up tells for when he is c-betting a board that he missed, when he's check-raising and he's missed, etc. Pick good spots to float him on, either with implied odds in your favor with some kind of weird draw or when he's missed with a dominated hand and you think you can extract further value from him because you think he thinks he has implied odds on you.

You're asking for a mathematical answer to a question you need a tell to know the correct answer for. So what I think you probably need to do at this point in your game is to stop over-analyzing incredibly marginal spots and shipping 100BBs in them, and work more on your social, empathetic, and reading skills and being able to get into the mind of your opponent.

The short answer is yes. If you're in a game with LAG maniacs, you will be getting stacks in lighter against them. It's about equity. 1010, KQ have much more value against a maniac than they do against a nit

If you're playing a guy opening way too much from all positions, and not folding to 3bets, like most of the bad LAGS in low stakes live games.....you should be 3betting him more with a wider value range that's heavily weighted towards pairs and broadways, rather than suited connectors or K4s type stuff that are better to 3bet against people that fold to 3bets a lot. The basic idea is your top pairs will often have him dominated.


Obv when you're building big pots against ppl that hate folding with KJ, there will be more variance. But if you have a good bankroll, that's okay. If the LAG will call your 3bet oop with worse than KJ, QJ, 88, than 3bet it and build pots all day with them.

Sidenote -- this assumes that you can play well postflop against these guys. If you get lost postflop in big pots, than just call preflop.

You have to assume he will check/call or check/raise or donk out the flop much more than he will check/fold. So think about what to do in each situation on various board textures

Yeh, I'm a bit of a forum newbie as well so I am not great at wording my questions or get lost in them lol

Thanks for the replies, will work on it