Hi guys, I was reading my latest CardPlayer magazine yesterday (Vol. 23/No. 19, not online yet) and in the Final-Table TakeDown, Tapscott interviews Daniel Kelly (djk123).

At one point, Tapscott asks him about his preflop thought process:


So...I hate math and could barely type all that much less understand it and incorporate it into my game. I do understand he's talking about calculating pot odds to call and then (I think?) that the "equity percentage required to call" is a look at your own cards in comparison with a range of hands you're putting your opponent on and how that hand might fare against your opponent's hand (which consists of (a) being familiar with your opponent and his likely ranges and (b) doing the work with PokerStove to have a real feel for various hands and their percentages).

What I was hoping for was some help from you guys regarding resources to get better with this part of my game. Whether it's work with PokerStove or
a link to a blog post/video/what have you.

Anyone got some tips they wouldn't mind sharing?

TIA!

First, I think he's wrong, if I'm understand what's written here. If it's preflop and your opponent bets an amount that gives you, say, 2:1 to call, just because you have better equity than 1/3 does not mean you can call, and having less than 1/3 does not mean you have to fold.

You are far from the river, and using showdown equity to justify an immediate decision, it's totally the wrong way to go about it.

To be fair - this was 6-handed, final table of Event No. 52 (at this year's WSOP $25k 6-handed NLHE event). djk123 was on the button and had made a min-raise with a huge cL (5,500,000) to his opponent's 505,000 in the SB. SB shoved and so he was put to the decision as to what to do next.

I was just using his comments as a way to start this thread for the purpose of asking how to do the work necessary to get to the point that making decisions like this, at the table, in the game, come naturally.

OK well calling a shove is definitely a spot where this works, so that makes more sense.

So what exactly is your question? First, do you see how to figure the minimum equity you need? It's the same as your pot odds. If it's 2:1 to call, you need to be no more than a 2:1 dog to call and so forth.

Second, pokerstove is great but you don't need it that much preflop and I'd leave it out for now. Familiarize yourself with the following equities:
1) overpair vs underpair
2) overpair vs 2 unders
3) pair vs 1 over, 1 under
4) pair vs 2 overs
5) 2 overs vs 2 unders
6) 2 cards vs 1 over and 1 under
This is basically all of the preflop possibilities in holdem. In any given spot only some of them apply, if you have a pair obviously #5 and #6 won't apply. If you have a nonpaired hand #1 won't apply. If you have AK, #1 and #2 don't apply. OK actually I left one out, which is 2 unpaired cards vs a pair that matches one of those, like QQ vs AQ or something like that.

The other thing you need to know is the relative frequency of hands. It's simple, any pair has 6 ways to occur, any non-pair has 16. Heads up preflop, suits essentially don't matter. If you hold one of the cards needed to make a pair, then there's only 3 ways to make it. If you hold one of the cards needed to make an unpaired hand, then there's only 12 ways to make it instead of 16. If you hold 2, then there's only 9. Some examples:

* how many ways can someone have KK - 6 (4*3/2)
* how many ways can someone have KK if I have a K - 3 (3*2/2)
* how many ways can someone have KK if I have KK - 1 (2*1/2)
* how many ways can someone have AK - 16 (4*4)
* how many ways can someone have AK if I have an A - 12 (4*3)
* how many ways can someone have AK if I have AK - 9 (3*3)

Now, let's say you think someone's range is TT+, AQ+, KQ, for example, and you have JJ. This breaks down into
6 TT
1 JJ
6 QQ
6 KK
6 AA
16 AK
16 AQ
16 KQ

Within reason, AK, AQ and KQ all have the same equity vs JJ, we'll call this EQ(A) and there are 48 hands in it

Also within reason, AA, KK and QQ have the same equity vs JJ, well call this EQ(B) and there are 18 hands in it

EQ(JJ) = 50% and there is 1 hand

EQ(TT) has 6 hands in it

EQ = ( 6*EQ(TT) + EQ(JJ) + 48*EQ(A) + 18*EQ(B) ) / 73

The 73 in the denominator is the total number of possible hand combos in his range.

So this looks too complicated to do at the table but it's something you should do frequently with a spreadsheet away from the table. Also it should be very clear here that the number of combos is highly dominated by the overcard hands and then next by the overpairs. EQ(JJ) and EQ(TT) have very little effect on the outcome and if you're doing a quick and dirty calc you can leave them out.

My head just exploded.

I really appreciate you responding and this certainly gives me something to begin working with.

Thanks a bunch.