Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
calling is never profitable if it's always laying even money odds, it's ev neutral if the sizing is correct
it's a straightforward result, if player A has one bluff combo and one value combo in his range to bet the river and bets pot, Player B cannot change his average outcome. His ev is exactly zero no matter what he does.
Nevermind that a villain would be overbluffing if he had a 1:1 ratio in that spot (it should be 2 value combos for each 1 combo of air, if a PSB is used), in what world does villain only bet 2 combos on the river?
In most river spots villain will have at least 3 combos of the nuts or 2nd nuts (but often more), but he'll also have maybe 30-40 combos of hands that can bet for value and get called by worse more than 50% of the time.
If you literally only bet 1 combo of the nuts and one bluff, you'd be leaving loads of money on the table.
Quick example: you open BTN v BB and bet and barrel on AK59. River is a 7. Are you only betting one combo of AA on the river (balanced with one combo of JTs or something), and are you checking back two combos of AA, and all 3 of KK and 9 of AK and another 9 each of A5 and A9?
Please don't be silly. You bet a LOT of combos, some of which are the near nuts, but many more that still win the majority of the time. You balance those by bluffing with an appropriate number of bluffs.
It can be the case that hero bets A5 on the river (hoping to get called by AJ etc) but villain binked a better two pairs with A9/A7, or flopped a set of fives. It would be idiotic for the BB to fold a set of fives on that runout, because it's so much better than a bluffcatcher. It beats many of the value-hands.
It would be completely ludicrous to fold 100% of his range. What would be the point of calling flop or turn (or even pre-flop) if he never calls the river?
Your bluff-catchers break even and serve to make villain "indifferent" to bluffing with air, but better hands than bluff-catchers call on the river because they actually make a profit.
Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 11-07-2018 at 07:18 PM.