Hi, this is type of hand which has on flop much equity (according to my calculations more than 50%). In theory all what have more equity than 50% is valuebet/valueraise.
Is it raise and stack off correct play?
We can also only call, turn too and river comes blank and we have to fold. In my opinion passive play is a waste of equity potential.

What do you think? is my reasoning wrong?

THANKS



Preflop: Hero is SB with A 4
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.20, BB folds

Flop: ($0.85) Q K A (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $0.60 Hero ??

it's not ideal

1.
if you don't x/c any flushes, ip can run you over on spades
AsXs combos are nice to have in your x/c range
2.
you won't have much of a x/r range on this board vs an ep open that cb large mw
that means you should look to use a polar x/r range, in which this combo does not fit, AsXs are smack in the middle of your calling range
3.
you are isolating yourself against the top of his range, his betting and his b/c ranges are not the same
4.
you prob have to fold to a shove, which means you've just wasted a **** ton of eq for a hand that can almost always see the river

I'm sure you're supposed to have some small % of AsXs in your x/r range for board coverage reasons but might as well not for all the other reasons

Note that it's CO that's betting, not the original raiser. His range is mostly JTs, AQ, and maybe AJs or KQ isn't it? He might have a couple of FDs too, but you're crushing those and will get paid in full if you both hit.
I never overcall pre-flop in the first place without good reason (is CO a fish?) but I think you can x-call or x-raise, and I doubt either option is significantly better. It really depends on what range you put him on. (And also be aware that MP might have a check-raise strategy with nutted hands on this board).

Of course I aggre but I think hands like the one above. We have top pair+nutted flush draw.

BTW. we are the ones who will shove in the spot so we have some feq too

Imagine that villain's range is composed from the nutted hands


We have 35%. If we add some bluffs we can play this way. That is my calculations and I am not sure whether I do it correct.

What do you think guys?

THANKS

I saw a similar hand playing some regular player. Now I realized that it actually played VS. fish that was aggressive. The second important thing I realized now is that it was TPTK. Something like AQ on Q92.
Only now did I realize that this is not the same. Does this change your perspective?
BTW if there is high dynamics on the table it is the reason to stack off vs. regular player?

WELL THANK YOU

The scenarios you've described are completely different.

If villain's betting range is only nutted hands (JTs, sets and two pairs), then it's clearly a bad idea to raise (and stack off) with a hand that only has 35% equity, but in the hand history it was CO that bet the flop. Why on earth would AA, KK and QQ be in his range if all he did was flat pre?

To try and solve these spots, you have to get villain's range accurate, so that you can work out how often he continues vs a raise, since some of your EV comes from immediate fold equity, and some comes from sucking out if he doesn't fold. Since CO's range will likely contain some weaker stabs at the pot (like 76ss or ATcc, or maybe TT or another random underpair), your winning chances might be higher than you think.

Note also that even if you "prove" that raising is profitable, it doesn't necessarily follow that raising is better than calling. Sometimes calling is even better, because it means you still have the chance to win a decent-sized pot if you get there, but you don't lose the maximum if you miss (which is what happens if you get all in on the flop but don't make the best hand).
I'll repeat that both lines seem viable and in most spots like this neither calling or raising is likely to be a big mistake. Solvers often mix their strategies in spots like this.