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Variance or just a bad player??? Variance or just a bad player???

06-15-2008 , 08:00 AM
Hi poker junkies, 1st post but an important one for me and i would like your input.First off wud like to show props to 2+2 which is a life saver as where i live there are no casinos no smokey bars which host tourneys or cash games, none of my family or friends like or like to talk about poker, proper suks!!!!!
I have been playing poker seriously for about 1 and half years now, i play as a hobbie and to make money. I dont play much volume maybe 10-15 MTT's per week (kids job etc). My biggest cash to date is about 1k for a deep end finish in the Sunday Million, other than that nothing to sing about. My question is i consider myself about 6/10 poker player, shud i have had better cashes/results than this? I figure that i have played about 800 mtts in that year and a half all buy ins between $5-$20 (plus played Sunday Mil twice) and have placed in the top three only twice! Shud over 800 MTT's my top three finishes be better? Every pro poker player who has been interview on T.V mags or podcasts always say something like, i was lucky enough to get a big score early on to create a bankroll etc etc. I am ALWAYS open to criticism from other poker players as most of it is a big help to my game! I guess what im trying to say is (sry 4 long post) is this just NORMAL MTT variance or am i just not a good MTT player? I know that without you seeing hand histories etc its impossible to answer, but for yourselves as poker players is this run of 2 top fins, good enuff 4 800 MTT's???
What has promted me to post this post is that a friend of mine in Ireland who started playing the same time i did, has just took down a tourney for $14k, which honestly pissed me right off!
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-15-2008 , 10:16 AM
4 out of 800 don't sound that good. And thats being kind I think
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-15-2008 , 10:23 AM
Its not 4 out of 800 MTT's, its 2 top 3 finishes. Obv i have had small cashes, lol, not just 2 cashes out of 800 MTT.
In my eyes a cash is not just sneaking into the money. I never play a tourney and not play for the top 3 places.....never.
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-15-2008 , 10:31 AM
It's easier to answer this question with dollar information, what what your total buy-in and total winnings? Otherwise the answer depends too much on the size of the MTT's.

With that additional information, it's possible to estimate your poker ability relative to other players in the MTT's.
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-15-2008 , 12:22 PM
I suggest you check out the MTT Community stickies.

Generally what's measured is ROI and ITM finishes.
Top 3 places are the icing on the cake.
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-15-2008 , 01:41 PM
Top 3 finishes are not "icing on the cake". Top 3 finishes are the most important stat in determining your effectiveness as a MTT'er. Its just, unfortunately, that statistic doesnt "converge" very quickly.

OP - We need to know more about your play, not just about your one good deep run in the sunday million. What is your ITM% (ie your in the money percentage), what is your ROI, what is your avg finish /100 (you can find this on bluff magazines online poker rank site. And if you want specifics about your play, knowing your rough VPIP/PFR would help as well.

800 MTT's played is usually enough to know roughly if you fall into the category of massively losing player, likely losing player, likely breakeven player, likely thin winner, or likely rockstar. It definitely is not enough to give you an accurate win rate or expectation.

4Card
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-16-2008 , 05:23 AM
Check out yourself in Official Poker Rankings to see how well you play. (google it if you dont know the web adress)

The most important figure is the ROI% ie how much money are you winning in tournaments you play.

However since you only played for one and a half year you probably still have much to learn to become a better poker player.
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-16-2008 , 02:51 PM
To me there is no "should" in poker... you kind of either just win or you don't and there's nothing particularly meaningful about either result (in the short run).
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote
06-16-2008 , 11:30 PM
A little bit of both.. Variance and Bad player.
Variance or just a bad player??? Quote

      
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