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Value to Bluff Raising Ratio

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01-20-2024 , 09:29 PM

HeadUpFriend

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 109

Just wanted to make a quick check to verify if my math here is correct.

So if I am making a PSB, (Pot+Our bet amount)/(Pot+Bet*2) I would need 67% value hands and 33% bluffs.

Now if villain bets say 50% pot, and I raise to 250 total, would the same math apply? (150+250)/(150+250*2) = 62% Value 38% bluffs? Or would a different formula apply?

Or is it 250/(250+250+100) = 58%value and 42% bluffs?

I'm wondering what is correct. If I raise to 250 total, villain is getting 2:1 odds, so does that mean I actually need 67% Value and 33% bluffs?

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01-20-2024 , 09:59 PM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,673

calculate how much he's risking and how often he needs to win, that's your bluffs

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01-20-2024 , 10:13 PM

HeadUpFriend

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 109

Ok yea that's what I thought so I need 67% Value 33% bluff then right?

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01-20-2024 , 10:46 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,106

bluff frequency will be approximately what the pot odds to villain are

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01-21-2024 , 01:30 AM

tombos21

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2018 Posts: 2,048

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeadUpFriend

Ok yea that's what I thought so I need 67% Value 33% bluff then right?

Yep, you've got it!

If you're bluffing 33%, and they need 33% to call, then you've made their bluff-catchers indifferent between calling and folding. So on the river, bluffing% = pot odds.

However, it's also good to note that this is only for rivers. Pot odds compound over multiple streets due to "leverage", so value-to-bluff ratios are different on turn and flop. Here's a video that explains the math.

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01-21-2024 , 09:16 AM

Zamadhi

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 385

It also depends on how much equity our value hands have when called.

If we bet a merged range, we should have less "bluffs", because our valuebets are sometimes technically bluffs since we don't always have the best hand when we "valuebet".

Last edited by Zamadhi; 01-21-2024 at 09:45 AM.

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01-21-2024 , 10:32 AM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zamadhi

This is for the most part not true on the river. The hands that beat your thin valuebets shouldn't be made indifferent, you should make bluff catchers indiff.
There are exceptions but it's a bit of a fringe concept

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01-24-2024 , 08:21 PM

Zamadhi

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 385

Quote:

Originally Posted by aner0

What about this example?

BB is getting pot odds of 34.9% on the river, so we should "expect" 34.9% bluffs from BTN, right?

But BTN is actually only bluffing 31.3%

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01-24-2024 , 10:02 PM

aner0

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,673

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zamadhi

What about this example?

BB is getting pot odds of 34.9% on the river, so we should "expect" 34.9% bluffs from BTN, right?

But BTN is actually only bluffing 31.3%

That's probably due to blockers, bluff catchers block more value than bluffs so less bluffs do the job at making bc indifferent

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