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Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+

03-08-2023 , 12:44 PM
Just ran a sim with to goal to check if preflop Call 3Bet ranges are just to loose for micro/small stakes rake structure.

The spot is EP calls SB 3Bet.
Sim is configured as follows:

SB 3bet range: AA-99,AKs-ATs,A5s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,AKo,[50.0]A4s,KTs,QTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo[/50.0]
EP Call 3bet range: JJ-TT,AQs,KQs,KTs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AKo,[75.0]AJs-ATs[/75.0],[50.0]99-44,KJs,QTs,54s[/50.0],[33.3]KK[/33.3],[25.0]33[/25.0],[5.00]QQ[/5.00]
SB 3Bet size: 10.5bb
EP opening size: 2.5bb
Starting Pot: 22bb
Eff. Stacks: 90bb
Rake: 5%
Cap: 15bb

OOP leads: 33,50,75
OOP X/R: 3.5x,500x
IP float bet: 33,50,75
IP raises CBeet: 2.5x,500x

Turn and river sizes are left as the default.

Sim is ran on the 15 flops flopset.

The resulting EV distribution for EP range is:
Hand Equity EV(*)
KK 71.419 25.434
QQ 62.235 17.355
JJ 56.419 11.159
AQs 50.613 9.838
AKo 55.148 9.383
77 44.951 8.929
33 38.170 8.452
KJs 41.593 8.369
AJs 46.626 8.290
KQs 44.109 8.242
99 44.424 7.482
TT 51.883 7.403
44 40.635 7.024
QTs 36.346 6.850
QJs 37.834 6.848
65s 33.903 6.778
ATs 42.689 6.398
88 42.239 6.166
76s 31.950 6.065
55 40.630 5.904
54s 32.223 5.393
87s 33.306 5.289
KTs 38.707 5.153
JTs 36.257 5.019
T9s 35.065 4.774
98s 33.945 4.770
66 38.652 4.558

Or



Now, my question is, considering that EP has to call 8bb (OPEN_RAISE - 3BET) to see a flop, is it correct that any hand in EP's range that has an EV bellow 8bb should be an unprofitable call 3bet at equilibrium?

I guess that some hands that preforms bellow the threshold EV might still be profitable calls in practice due to player edge. If that's the case then how do you decide what is the actual threshold?
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-08-2023 , 01:04 PM
Yes it's too loose, should stick to standard defence.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-08-2023 , 10:34 PM
Here is HRC output with lower rake but larger SB sizing so should be ~reasonable.



Here is monkersolver output



The monkersolver output is completely yellow for some hands that are not opening 100%, so the graphic is slightly misleading. UTG is only opening 22/33/44/55 etc. at very small % and just calling some % of them, same as 76s/54s etc. only opening small %, but calling 100% vs the 3bet.

Also, I don't use GTO+, but running preflop sims with PIOsolver over a 15 flop subset definitely creates some... interesting results. Your results running with 15 flop subset is not going to be particularly accurate. Keep that in mind.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-09-2023 , 08:28 PM
Quote:
Also, I don't use GTO+, but running preflop sims with PIOsolver over a 15 flop subset definitely creates some... interesting results. Your results running with 15 flop subset is not going to be particularly accurate. Keep that in mind.

Yep. 33 being worth 2.5bb more than 55 shows there's a lot of variance in OP's results. 15-flop subsets are not enough to determine preflop strategies.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-14-2023 , 04:05 PM
Thx for all the answers, especially for the ones suggesting ranges as I'm really trying to improve my defense vs 3bet ranges.

Thing is, my goal in this post is to understand the solver EV. GTO+ doesn't run preflop sims and the results I appended are for a postflop sim using my current ranges. I'm truly curious if my evaluation of the EVs for each hand is correct as it could hint at some issues in my preflop ranges.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-14-2023 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WillMurderface
Thx for all the answers, especially for the ones suggesting ranges as I'm really trying to improve my defense vs 3bet ranges.

Thing is, my goal in this post is to understand the solver EV. GTO+ doesn't run preflop sims and the results I appended are for a postflop sim using my current ranges. I'm truly curious if my evaluation of the EVs for each hand is correct as it could hint at some issues in my preflop ranges.
They are not accurate as they were ran over a 15 preflop subset.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote
03-14-2023 , 07:56 PM
What's your goal?

You can find high quality free preflop ranges on GTO Wizard.

If you really want to solve it yourself, use a proper preflop solver like HRC Beta or Simple preflop or Monker.

----

The method you're using is an old-school approach to approximating preflop. Firstly, the margin of error is like +- 2bb just due to using a small subset. Secondly, this process requires many iterations. Once you remove the -EV calls from EP's range, the EV's of everything will change.
Understanding Preflop EV in GTO+ Quote

      
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