in a field of 64 i am drawing 4 random teams....they are for ease of discussion sake:
Kansas(1 seed)
Villanova (2 seed)
Cornell(12 seed)
Vermont(16 seed)
assuming all is equal my odds of winning are 16-1(4-64 teams)
now taking into account records and all the vegas odds are:
kansas 4-1
villanova 8-1
cornell 40-1
vermont 100-1
how do i determine my actual odds of winning this pool?

i posted here because i figured i can also use this on poker tournaments to rank players......and a side question how do you figure your own odds when handicapping a tournament again 5 players and they are:
phil ivey
dave sklansky
joe schmoe
Bill smith
Doyle brunson
all chips are even to start tourney?

Using just the Vegas odds:

Convert the odds to probabilities – 0.20, 0.111, 0.024, 0.0099.

Add up = 0.3454, which is the probability that one of the four win

Odd against winning = 0.6546/0.3454 to 1 or 1.895 to 1.

so to convert to probabilities i just take the odds (lets use kansas) at 4-1 and divide the one by the total number of chances(5) and come up with .20..i get that but how did you come up with the .06546 number? what does this represent?

Odds against winning = Prob lose/Prob. win to 1

Prob of win = Prob Kansas wins + Prob Villanova wins etc.

We found prob. that one of the four win is 0.3454
Therefore, prob. you lose is 1- 0.3454 = 0.6546
and
Odds= 6546/3454 = 1.895 to 1

ahhh thank you..i appreciate your patience in explaining...lemme see if i can do some on my own..i may be back..lol