So how bad is this call? I figured I had outs, as there is no way that he limp/calls with A K or A Q eliminating all chances of him having a better diamond draw, and also no way he goes all in with the nuts, so I figure I have 9+2 outs (diamonds plus jacks). So how bad was this call?


Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: t5895 58.95 BBs
Hero (BTN): t5930 59.30 BBs
SB: t2825 28.25 BBs
BB: t3340 33.40 BBs
UTG: t4065 40.65 BBs
UTG+1: t4410 44.10 BBs
UTG+2: t1370 13.70 BBs
MP1: t2995 29.95 BBs
MP2: t4210 42.10 BBs

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BTN with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 2 folds, MP2 calls t100, CO calls t100, Hero raises to t500, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls t400, 1 fold, CO calls t400

Flop: (t1750) 2 A 3 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets t3910 all in, CO folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls t3910

Turn: (t9570) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t9570) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

Not a bad call at all... Seems like a brag to me.

You are assuming that (1) he hasn't hit trips or 2 pair and (2) He hasn't hit the flush already and (3) he has a worse diamond draw, if at all.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a limp/flat call with KTs down to Q9S. Maybe even KQ OS. It's a dangerous call, IMO. If he already hit the flush you're odds significantly decrease (4 outs gone).

Looking at the board and bet sizing I think this is a coin flip or worse more often than not, and I try to avoid flips at all costs.

Even if you conclude that he has all kinds of semi-bluff hands in his range, I still think you are coin-flip at best, and most likely dominated.

If he's betting, he's either got top pair, something better, or a higher flush draw.

So either you are 60% favorite (rarely), beaten but live flush draw (40% favorite), or just clobbered (most likely).

So, in conclusion, I think this is a bad call.

if you are flipping this is a clear call, why would you avoid the flip?

I'm sorry, I meant considering pot odds it is an EV flip (EV=0), at best. That was just a mistype on my part. But I can't stress the "at best" enough.

you make a lot of very precise conclusions when we cannot possibly confirm at this stage. saying his range has to be top pair+ or a better flush draw is simply wrong.

i agree with op and think we are very rarely worse than 40-43% (AxXx), and the time we are are compensated for when we have his flush draw dominated and a better pair, which in a buyin this low definitetly happens sometimes.

i agree with that obv, but i dont think you are giving randoms enough credit for shoving here far, far to light. 5d6x,3x4d etc, its a $1 FO, a lot of people are not thinking logically at all here.

So you think he's shoving with unmade hands that aren't flush draws? that's pretty optimistic... his range dominates you. This, I can confirm.

You make a good point. In a donkament this might be a slightly +EV call. It is very dangerous to assume that your opponent isn't rational at any level without some knowledge of prior betting patterns

As I said, bluffing or not, the jam was terrible. Still, based on the betting pattern I have to assume at least top pair but I would probably think weak suiteds or suited connectors hitting. If I'm in this spot, knowing nothing about villain prior, I probably take my 2BB loss and watch his post flop play more closely

i agree the jam was bad, and i think that and teh open limp pre would be enough of a reason to assume he isnt thinking rationally. conversely, if he opened for 2.7x than bet 60% on the flop or similar i would give him some credit for knowing what he is doing.

Do we really think that he is jamming here with anything less than a weak ace? He could have been flat calling with suited connectors or a low pocket pair. We have done very little to define the strength of the villain's hand at this point.

If you don't have Jd, its an awful call IMO.

Since you do have diamond, I also call here I think, same as you. I bludgeon my way thru poker, screw all this thinking $hit.

Edit: I'm a tourney player, not a cash game guy. Pedal to the metal, hammer time, all that good stuff.

Why is a $1 tourney hand being posted in poker theory?

Because beginners have a right to learn too. Shocking.

of course but he is right, its not a theory question. should be posted here - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/23/mtt-strategy/

you cannot confirm this, how would you go about confirming this?

im not saying it is certain that he is shoving these hands, but it is fairly likely.

I don't think the price of the tourny should eliminate it from poker discussion but I DO think that you should take it into consideration when ranging the players. There isn't enough information given to decide if this is a good or bad call really. In a $1 tourny where players bluff with air and/or lose their mind all the time I think this is a +EV call most likely. In a higher stakes online tourny this could be a + or - call depending on how much you know about your opponent and what stage of the tourny you are in. On the first hand of an FTOPS tourny against an online pro I would say you are looking to boat up with runner runner and are nearly drawing dead.

bad call and got lucky

I totally agree. Beginners have gone long enough with no place to learn. I say they post their hands in Poker Theory until someone makes them their own forum or forums.

well
A) A pro or even a seasoned veteran wouldn't limp-call preflop with a BIG ace OR pocket Aces. Can you agree with that?

B) Even if he had the flush, that means you gotta put him on KQ or K 10 and then again why would he jam the flop??? that's definitely not how you get max value. Now I could see him jam the flop if he had something like 4-5 diamonds or something stupid. That being said, if he were to have that, why would you call preflop for 500 (5x the big blind)...?

C) I know I overbet the preflop raise to try to protect my hand, but it didn't scare anyone I don't think.

D) I know I'm a beginner online, but I really understand the theory behind the call and not. I don't have questions on many hands, but have to figure that this is a coin flip really.

E) If I had found the MTT Strategy forum first that's where I would have posted it, sorry if I'm "wasting your time"

Thanks again.

a) i agree, i do not think it matters at all though considering villian is clearly not one of those.

b)i agree its unlikley he would take this line for value with a monster, i do not think you can rule random suited stuff out of his range pre though, he wont have it that often though.

c) pre sizing is an underbet, 650 is pot, i like 6-7x.

d) i dont understand, can you rephrase it?

e) np, post there in future, you will get answers from people more familiar with how these tournaments play.

Again.... this is a $1 tourny...

What zachvac means to say is this is a discussion for MTT strategy and not poker theory.

Beginners' questions? Either that or MTT strategy, where beginners ARE welcome to post any MTT hands.

Poker theory has a very specific purpose and it would not benefit anyone to have the board filled with hands like these. The poster would get better responses in MTT strategy for one.

Sorry, I spent most of yesterday on the road or I would have moved this. I can still move it if desired - once a thread gets some responses though I tend to just leave it where it is.

In the future, most posts that involve a hand history analysis belong in the forum dedicated to the form of poker being played.

Why dont we all make it a theory post then to fix the misplacement by generalizing the problem to one that is of this nature and proper for theory;


You raise preflop 5bb after many limpers with a top pair say TT-KK and you get a flat caller that was originally a limper . Then you get a suited flop with an ace in it and the limper that acts first shoves (you always have the flush draw too). Under what conditions you call in a tournament.

Also under what conditions the limper is ok to shove here .

Make it further interesting;

If you are the limper and have an AX type hand is it ever ok to shove in such scary looking flop without a flush draw and vs a single opponent that was a string preflop raiser(of course put stack vs pot ratios etc in this ) ?

If you are the preflop raiser and now facing a flush risk and an overcard is it ever ok to call if you have also a flush draw ? Is it ok to call with KK or QQ or even JJ. What is the transition point? Is KK or QQ the only 2 hands that you should be calling with or just KK?

If you are the preflop caller and you have a baby flush now is it ever ok to shove?



Ps: as is the original call here is in my view a mistake for the reasons also given by others before like Richyrich9987 . Your typical opponent here is a set, a 2p, a flush draw with KX , an AX not AK not AQ usually type hand , a straight maybe less often , a total bluff very rarely, At best all this goes like 39.5% for us so you needed here 3910/(3910*2+1750)=41%. This means its a fold for a tourney. Its never a call really because its a tourney and he equity is so close to the required for chip EV. Its not good even as cash game due to volatility even if we are a bit off ine stiamtion its still looks submarginal