I'm sure this is well-known (think I saw a post about it here), but I can't find the reference. Anyway, this is a clear example of the phenomenon.
The
problem is: find 5 hold'em hands of two hole cards each, H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, such that
(a) H1 is a favorite heads-up against each of H2, H3, H4, and H5, but
(b) If all of H1, H2, H3, H4 and H5 go all-in together, then H1 is the least likely to win.
Answer:
Let H1 be K
2
, H2 be Q
J
, H3 be 7
6
, H4 be 3
4
, and H5 be 8
9
.
Then if all 5-hands are all-in together, H1 only has 13.5% equity, H2 has 28.2%, H3 has 18.7%, H4 has 17.5% and H5 has 22%. So H1 here is a big underdog.
But headsup, H1 is a 52-48% favorite against H2, 51-49% against H2, 54-46% against H3, and 51-49% against H5.
This still seems paradoxical almost. I wonder if it is related to Simpson's Paradox.