Hi,

I have a pretty simple question regarding EV calculation I was hoping someone could help me out with.

Just as a theoretic example (see below) we flop bottom set and we know villain holds QJs and we want to know if calling his all-in raise will be better than folding. so the calculation for this,

.33*(1.20+.90+10.09) - .66*7.19

This comes out to EV= -$0.72 or -7.2bb

Now, I was told that the EV of folding is always 0. So using the example below we are correct to fold since EV= 0, which is better than EV= -$0.72

OR

Should we call since when we fold we lose $2.90 but when we call we only lose on average $0.72 making calling $2.18 better than folding. If this is correct, do we also count the money we put in pre?


UTG: $10.00
Hero (MP): $13.35
CO: $2.00
BTN: $10.44
SB: $10.55
BB: $8.18

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 9 9

UTG raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, fold, BTN calls $0.35, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.20, 3 players) K T 9
UTG bets $0.90, Hero raises to $2.90, BTN raises to $10.09

You don't lose the $2.90 it's already in the pot.

I'm assuming UTG folded to the all-in? If so, there's $1.20 + $0.90 + $2.90 + $10.09 = $15.90 in the pot. It costs you $7.19 to call.

Ignoring the possability of a tie you will win 34.4% when you call, so we have;
(.344)($15.09)-(.656)($7.19) = $0.47

$0.47 > $0.00 so EV of calling > EV of folding

I see, and I was doing the actual calculation wrong too. Thanks a lot

EDIT: Not sure why our equity amounts are different though.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,960 games 0.000 secs 792,000 games/sec

Board: Kh Ts 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.535% 33.08% 00.45% 1310 18.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 66.465% 66.01% 00.45% 2614 18.00 { QJs }

I don't have pokerstove on my laptop, I used carplayer.com's equity calculator, so yours is probably more reliable. I did use QJo with no spade though.

ah that explains it then