Quote:
Originally Posted by Kombaiyashii
Let's say I fold out a person 65% of the time with a pot sized bet (betting 11bb into a pot of 11bb).
If I wanted to work out how many bb's I get each time I make this bet, would it be:
(11x.65)-(11x.35) = 3.3 ?
Thanks.
That would be correct if when called you have 0% equity and will always lose that pot bet made. Otherwise if calling equity is E it would be (if the guy can only call and not additionally also further reraise;
0.65*11+0.35*((11+11+11)*E-11)
If the guy can further reraise with some probability pr and then you cant call that and call with some pc and fold with pf such that pf+pc+pr=1 and the call equity is E then you get;
pf*pot+pc*((pot+bet*2)*E-bet)+pr*(-bet).
Another way to see it is by finding the avg stack you have in all 3 possible outcomes and then subtracting from it current stack to see the relative effect of the choice to bet.
You then may want to compare that action with another one to see if its not only a good idea but a better one too. In some spots betting for example is wrong when you have already some small equity but the bet will kill all that are worse and pay the better ones only. So you need to consider the effect of the bet in the range of the opponent regarding resulting actions by them due to that bet.
