Hey guys,

I'm a live PLO player. (4card)

We play 9 handed.

My question is - What is the percentage chance of another player having aces if I have one in my hand?

The reason I ask is that the game is played quite tight and I am planning to widen my preflop raising range and I'm trying to get an approximate idea of how many folds I need to make it pofiable.

Also do any of you know of a link to a chart of complete PLO hand rankings.

Thanks in advance for any help

VM

My advice would be to read a PLO book. I suspect that you might be looking at expanding your range with the wrong hands. Also AA while the best hand is not nearly so dominant* in Omaha so the number below won't help you very much.
..I'm far from expert however

The exploitative move may well be to increase your bluff rate. Also pay close attention as opening your Range may well loosen the game.


48 cards left
3 are aces
He gets 4 of them

(3/48)^2 x6 = 54/48^2 ~ 2.3% per player.
Chance none have AA-- = 97.7%^8 ~ 83%
17% chance someone else has AA.

* this goes double when you're holding one of the other aces: potentially sharing his Straights as well as making his Sets less likely.

Exact answer as follows (assuming 3 A's doesn't count):

8 * C(3,2)*C(45,2) / C(48,4) = 132/1081 =~ 12.211%

If 3 A's counts, it's 12.396%

Thanks guys, 3 A's counts as my oponents would get it in with this holding.

So 12.4% or 17%? it matters not I'll round it to 15% and be close enough for my purposes.

The reason I ask is that although a few players will raise and many will limp or flat call the first raise they will not call or get it in against a 3 bet without Aces. there is a small chance of some players getting it in with a perfect wrap but for arguments sake its exclusively Aces. there is also a straddle most of the time in this game.

so 85% no one has aces if I have one, therefore If I can 3 bet when I have an ace I should get a profitable amount of folds?

I dont want to go crazy doing this as they will maybe adjust if I do it too often but if i'm correct this could add maybe £10 per hour to my current win rate of around £6.

I know its small compared to you online guys but its the difference between min wage and a decent income.

Thanks again guys

12.4%, final answer

I assume timlagor was just giving an estimate, but for this problem it's not accurate because there are three sources of error, all accumulating with 8 players.

The cards are not replaced so squaring (3/48) instead of decreasing the fraction introduces error. Also, that triple-counts the ways villain can have AAA. To fix the quoted, you can get rid of the squaring and subtract the AAA cases twice so that they're counted just once:

C(4,2)*(3/48)(2/47) - 2*C(4,3)*(3/48)(2/47)(1/46) = 1.55%

Once you have that, you simply multiply by 8 and then you're done since there's no overlap when doing that (only one villain can have AA/AAA since you've removed an ace from the deck). You can't take 1-(.9845)^8 because the players' hands are not independent (that's the third source of error in timlagor's answer).

I was approximating and short of sleep. Still surprised I was so far out though -sorry about that.

Hadn't realised he was only talking about folding out the flop as I would assume a game like this would have people continuing with all sort of junk. If they're folding that much you might not need to wait for an ace to do this profitably
Don't forget that some of your aces will be good hands which you'd rather not scare everyone away from. Are we talking Pot-Sized bets here because that's not the only option and the "close-as-we-gan-get-to-GTO" solution is not what we're looking for here.

If people do start responding to your new strategy (and this sounds like a game where they actually might not -esp if you do it relatively rarely) you should definitely consider mixing up your bet sizes for psychological impact.

I'll save embarrassing myself again for another thread by saying that profitability here depends on how big your 3Bets are and how many will have limped/flatted at that point.

If your playing in a game where your opponents get their money in with AAAK why are you asking questions about widening your range. Just sit back and let them hand you their money.

Don't feed the trolls.

Jungmit, if you keep making these non sequitur online poker is rigged posts, you'll be infracted and eventually banned. Take it somewhere else.

So I can't voice my opinion? I have to just agree with everything people write?? Sounds like a fair free world kinda site to me.

This is a poker theory forum. Statements about the riggedness of online poker do not belong here. There are several active threads about it on this site, post there.

Strict rules I guess. Not sure I siad it was rigged. I just made a statement based on my findings. Sorry u disagree with them.

Thanks guys,

Timelagger please dont apologise for being tired or being inaccurate I'm grateful you take some interest and share your intellect with me.

The villains would adjust if I steal too much but a couple of times an hour will work for sure. If they do adjust (it will be obvious) I will tighten a little.

Another interesting but somewhat obv discovery by me is that even with my less than stellar skills, seeing flops is profitable I believe, They win the flops they smash, as do I but I also win most of the ones neither of us smash,

Bet sizing, I pot it or near pot it pre as I have to send a clear message to these guys. but bet around 75% on flops, this makes stealing cheaper.

One more question you maybe able to help with.

The rake in our casino is 5% Sunday to Wed. and 10% Thurs to Sat capped at £5.

What effect does this have on the £1/2 PLO ? should I even play @10% as my edge is only around £6 ph (this will rise to around £11 i estimate with the adjustments you guys have helped me with)

Does the game change with the rake?
I'm not sure how many hands you're playing but I'd guess you'd still be marginally profitable. However, it's not likely to be worth your time at 10% if the game doesn't get softer at the same time.

I'd think Friday/Saturday evenings might get enough drunk loons to be worth a trip but Thursday afternoon is probably worth giving a miss: finish that PLO book of yours instead (or read it again)

Thanks guys,