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Please check my calculation Please check my calculation

01-17-2014 , 03:18 PM
Basically, I want to calculate and compare EV of 2 different lines.
I simplified initial hand. We are heads up in position on the turn, the board is:
3Q84
Our hand 55 (~33% equity)
Opponent has 5 combos: QT; A8; 66; JT; KT (~67% equity)
The pot is 7bb and opponent checks to us. We can either bet 3.5bb and villain calls with his whole range except one hand (KT) and open-check any river. Or we can check back, then villain will bet same 3.5bb on any river.
Let`s assume our equity when called on the turn- 20%.
EVbet=(0.2*7) + 0.8*{(0.2*10.5)-(0.8*3.5)}=
=1.4 + 0.8*(2.1-2.8)=1.4-0.56=0.84bb

EVcheck=(0.33*10.5)-(0.67*3.5)=3.46-2.34=1,12bb

Is it correct?
Please check my calculation Quote
01-17-2014 , 09:13 PM
It looks ok to me. I checked the equities with Poker Stove and they are reasonable and the 20% fold equity is correct.

The stated conditions assume that if both check the turn and villain bets the river then you will call no matter what, which might be dicey with only a small pair. I suppose a more detailed analysis would identify those river cards that would cause you to fold, calculate their occurrence probabilities for no loss or gain and modify your call equation for other possible river cards.
Please check my calculation Quote
01-19-2014 , 05:25 AM
Thank you. Actually I ran a simulation of our equity on different river cards in OddsOracle. But I don`t think its representive enough, because I simplified initial hand and took only 5 hands, each of them represents certain part of villain`s range. I have the same 33% equity vs those hands and vs his whole range. I guess I also kept close proportion of draws/weak pairs/toppairs etc. Don`t know if it`s appropriate way of calculation.
Please check my calculation Quote

      
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