P(x) where x is running 8bb/100 below ev over 36000 hands
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 132
Can anyone help me determine what the standard dev in bb/100 hands would be for 180 sngs on stars over a 36000 hand sample? I am trying to determine the P(x) described in title... any help would be much appreciated!
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 128
Can you tell us your sample standard deviation? Or should I just assume some typical values that I see posted here?
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 132
in HEM, my std dev bb is 80 over the 36000 hands
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 128
Your average profit approaches a normal distribution with mean µ (whatever that may be) and variance 80^2 / 360, and standard deviation σ = sqrt(80^2 / 360) ≅ 4. P(x ≤ µ - 8) = Φ(-8 / 4) ≅ 0.025. So, about 2.5%.
I'd feel more comfortable about this analysis if the games were all cash games.
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 128
Do you have the mean and variance of the ROI for the tournaments? Since hands from different stages of the tournaments aren't identically distributed, analyzing that would be better.
Can't PT3 show you the confidence intervals for the numbers? That would be better than having to ask here.
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 132
I am using HEM... also, I have no idea what the mean and variance of the ROI for these tournaments are. But the EV is calculated in relation to big blinds, so the hands from different stages of the tournament shouldn't matter very much.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 3,086
one of the top 3 12/180 turbo grinders on pokerstars broke even in them for 2,500 games (his roi, with this stretch, is 40% still though)
other top 180 grinders have gone on 200-300 buyin downswings, there have even been a few cases of 400-500 buyin downswings with people whose roi is >20
moral of the story: variance in 180s is disgusting
