n00b q'n about my turn and river CBET percentages effect on villain behavior
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 115
At the lowest microstakes .1/.2, my turn and river cbet percentages are super high, but this has been profitable so I believe it is an exploitative leak that I'll need to clean up when it stops working as frequently as it does here.
My questions is this, what does a thinking player using HUD stats do to adjust to me?
I'm thinking, how would I play against myself?
my stats: CBET turn 67%, CBET river 63%
So, looking at my post flop stats, (analyzing myself objectively), I can guess that this guy bluffs the turn a lot and the river a super lot.
The thing is, the fact that he both bluffs the turn and the river puts me in a conundrum.
I won't often get to see a cheap river with my bluffcatchers, and am playing a high variance game trying to bluff catch this guy.
Even though my play to call down or even raise can be +EV, I'll just fold because I'd rather be in a different spot.
...or do you just keep calling down light with more bluffcatchers?
I think the prevalence of the (passive) former thought is what makes such an unbalanced aggressive strategy effective at the super microstakes?
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,257
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 13,256
Assuming I had faith in the numbers, I'd be more likely to bluff-raise you on the flop (e.g. with draws that are unlikely to get free cards), but call down with value-hands to "let you hang yourself".
Unless you're on a small network, most players won't get a large enough sample on you for them to bother calculating a gameplan against you, if indeed they use their HUDs for things like that. (I think a lot of micro regs rarely even look at anything except VPIP/PFR/3b/CB/FtoCB, and don't change their play because of the numbers much anyway).