Hold'em Simulation ?
1,370,754 trials (Exhaustive)
dead cards: 9c9d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
As8s 77.50% 1,053,793 17,036
9h8h 22.50% 299,925 17,036


2 dead 9's and he still has 22% equity? What am I missing?

Can a straight and flush draw really be worth that much equity?

Apparently so.

A quick approximate calculation showed that 87s has about a 25% chance to flop an 8-out straight or flush draw given the known other cards. We know you hit the draw by the river much less than 50% unless it is both draws (17 outs). So after adding in gutshot draws and the very low probabilities of getting a straight or flush on the flop, or possibly winning 9 pair, that would still make the 22% showdown equity seem a bit doubtful. Equilab doesn’t handle dead cards – at least I found no way, so I added another player with the two nines. Then 98s has 15% equity. So without the 3rd player that 15% would have to be split up between the other 2, so this kinda confirms that the 22% is correct.

the chance of making a flush is like 7%, the chance of making a straight is higher and the chance of hitting 1 out is also similar. When you take away the times A8s wins when 98 hits one of those it comes around to that.

If only you would have also killed the 9s you would have known the answer. If you also kill all the remaining 8's that eliminates split pots and 89hh gets even more equity.

Hold'em Simulation ?
962,598 trials (Exhaustive)
dead cards: 9s9d9c8c8d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
8h9h 20.24% 192,216 5,196
as8s 79.76% 765,186 5,196

??????? no way that's right

Hypothesis 0: The simulator is actually right

Hypothesis 1: The simulator is wring

Which is more likely?

less pair cards in the deck = more cards to get a straight and flush